저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리(Scion Asset Management)의 중국 주식 보유 포트폴리오(알리바바·Buu·JD.com)를 소개하고, 2024년 중국 증시 랠리의 원인(부동산 위기 대응 금리·지준율 인하, 자사주 매입 대출 지원)과 중국 주식 투자의 장단점을 설명. 알리바바·Buu·JD의 재무지표(PER 등)가 S&P500 대비 낮다고 평가하며 중국 자산 재평가 가능성을 언급. 정부 규제 리스크와 투자 전 자체 조사 필요성도 함께 제시.
다듬은 글
legendary investor Michael bur is investing very heavily into Chinese stocks in this video we'll analyze his top three Chinese stocks that you must know about following the rise in the Chinese stock market first we'll look into key financial metrics in news for the three stocks and in the second part we'll find out what drove the stock market rally while looking at the major pros and cons of investing in Chinese stocks China's very impressive stock market rally in 2024 saw the csi300 index rise over 20% in September meanwhile the Shanghai Composite Index Rose an impressive 15.8% from the beginning of September to the end of October Michael bu's fund Scion Asset Management now has around half its portfolio invested in the three Chinese stocks we're going to analyze in this video the first stock we'll look at which Michael bu bought a significant stake in is Tech Giant Alibaba Alibaba is currently the largest position in his funds portfolio according to his company's 13f filing for the third quarter of 2024 Scion Asset Management has a little over 20% of its portfolio in Alibaba however we must be aware that bur also holds $18 million of bearish put options on Alibaba to help hedge his risk in case the stock drops significantly so what does the tech giant Alibaba actually do well the answer is many things ranging from online retail marketplaces to wholesale trade Alibaba is a multinational technology conglomerate that runs through its major segments which are core Commerce digital media and cloud computing the cloud computing segment has Alibaba Cloud which provides a database facility storage Network big data analytics and other services also their other Innovative divisions shouldn't be overlooked as they include ding talk auton naavi t-all Genie and others the famous leader behind Alibaba that we all see in the media is Jack ma who co-founded the company in 19 1999 the other leading co-founder was Chung taai however many people don't realize the company was actually founded with 17 original members in hunga China where it is still currently headquartered the market cap of Alibaba is $216 billion which makes it comfortably in the top five largest Chinese companies The View towards investing in Chinese stocks became negative following the regulatory clampdowns in recent years most notably after alibaba's case in 2021 the state Administration for Market regulation announced a $2.8 billion fine for Alibaba for behaving like a monopoly however the Chinese government wants money to flow into their businesses by trying to boost shareholder returns it's evident by the scale of stimulus measures that this is the case particularly as we see an extremely low interest rate of only 2.25% for companies to take out loans for stock BuyBacks The Narrative from many Western media companies claiming the Chinese government is not trying to increase shareholder returns is untrue luckily for Alibaba the fine only amounted to 4% of their sales in 2019 so the company recovered quickly despite concerns about potential regulatory crackdowns Alibaba has seen a sharp rise of over 30% since the beginning of 2024 while maintaining a PE ratio of under 30 additionally in September 2024 Alibaba announced it would collaborate with Nvidia on artificial intelligence that will enable Chinese automakers to develop autonomous driving next we'll take a deeper look into alibaba's key financial metrics so you can better understand its value the trailing 12-month dividend yield is 1.08% and was last issued in July 2024 you can see other Vital Statistics here such as the total revenue which was $131 billion in 2023 which is up 3.5% from 2022 gross profit was up slightly more at 3.9% as it hit $ 46.4 billion while operating income Rose to $17.2 billion as a result pre-tax income was 14.1 billion while net income was 11.1 billion Which is 5.1% higher than in 2022 alibaba's financials are attractive to long-term investors due to its substantial cash reserves in April of 2024 Alibaba held around $ 81.6 billion in cash which is nearly 50% of its market cap of $167 billion this strong cash position is reflected in its low Enterprise Value to free cash flow ratio reaching 4.19 at one point yielding a free cash flow rate of 25% the second major stock Michael bur scian Asset Management bought in the third quarter of 2024 is Buu the stock now makes up 10.14% of his portfolio however he also purchased put options Worth 6.76% to help hedge his risk BYU is an internet search provider which operates from its platform byu.com the website allows users to search for web pages images news documents and other media files the business has three main sections search Services transaction services and iqi the search services offer pay for Performance Marketing capabilities based on user search queries the transportation services include BYU takeout BYU Nomi by Maps BYU connect by wallet and more lastly II is a video platform allowing users to watch a wide variety of movies and TV shows the current market cap of Buu is $29 billion which makes it almost 10 times smaller than Alibaba also the company does not currently pay dividends however there are many strong factors for investing in Buu now that we understand what Buu does let's take a deep dive into the company's financials Revenue was up by 3.4% to19 billion while gross profit grew by a massive 10.68% % to $9.8 billion even more impressive was the operating income growth at 30.5% coming in at 3.08 billion up from $2.3 billion last year however the most impressive results were from the pre-tax income and net income which both grew over 100% pre-tax income was $ 3.56 billion which was up 136% and net income was up to $ 2.77 billion an incredible 167% higher michaelb clearly sees high potential growth with Buu following these Financial results Additionally the stock is at a current price to earnings ratio of only 11.1 which is down from last year's 15.3 a low PE ratio is attractive especially considering the current PE ratio of the S&P 500 is around three times higher the price to cash flow ratio also looks good at 10.1 the third and final stock that B invested heavily in is jd.com which now accounts for 15.4% of his portfolio the position ranks second in his portfolio and less than 1% smaller than his largest position in Alibaba however it's essential to be aware that he also holds the same position in put options to balance his risk if the stock drops jd.com is a tech e-commerce business that primarily deals with selling electronic products in general merchandise the company was founded in 1998 and now sells products including videos audio and books it operates mainly in JD retail and JD Logistics the retail side primarily operates through online retail and marketing Services meanwhile JD Logistics handles both internal and external Logistics the market cap is 51 billion dollar putting it in between BYU and Alibaba meanwhile the dividend yield has been quite impressive at 2.09% for the last 12 months now let's look further into the financials starting with Revenue which is down 1.4 7% to $153 billion gross profit was up 3.28% to $22.3 billion while operating income was up a massive 49.78 at $4.8 billion similarly to Buu the pre-tax income and net income saw even larger annual increases pre-tax income was $ 4.47 billion coming in at 116.2 and the net income was $ 3.41 billion which is plus 121.2 eight% that's not bad to say the least additionally with a price to earnings ratio of only 11.26 it's easy to see why bur views this stock highly the price to cash flow ratio was also strong at only 7.3 part two we'll look at what drove the Chinese stock market rally in late 2024 and the major pros and cons of investing in Chinese stocks the incredible speed of the rally caught the World by surprise and renewed interest in the Chinese stock market despite popular indices such as the csi300 and Shanghai composite pulling back slightly in October 2024 the Chinese stock market remains high on the list for many investors we must bear China's real estate crisis in mind because it helped lead the government towards aggressive policy changes to stimulate the stock market key changes include lowering short-term interest rates on mortgages which should help ease real estate market concerns the Chinese said the mortgage rate cut will help Chinese households save over $21 billion per year another major policy comes from the People's Bank of China announcing a 50 basis point cut in the reserve ratio the reserve ratio determines how much cash a Bank needs to keep free the government reduced the reserve ratio from 10 to 99.5% allowing Banks to have more free cash to drive economic growth which should help boost liquidity by 142 billion dollar furthermore better loan facilities were made to help increase share BuyBacks the People's Bank of China is allowing companies to take out loans through commercial banks at only 2.25% to boost share BuyBacks overall the government has promised over $112 billion for the schemes to help pump up the markets check out this video here if you would like to find out more about what caused the significant Chinese stock market rally in 2024 major bullish and bearish factors Michael bur's portfolio for Scion Asset Management has little more than 45% of its declared hold Holdings in large cap Chinese companies a reason for his bullish view comes from the trailing 12-month PE ratio for the companies which is significantly lower than the S&P 500 PE ratio which is currently 29 furthermore large capap US tech companies such as Nvidia have now hit 65 and apple is at 35 he's clearly not seeing as much value in large cap Western companies compared to their Chinese counterparts despite the recent rise China's major stocks such as Alibaba B and JD still look relatively cheap compared to their earnings one could argue they have moved from being very cheap to just being cheap the three companies look likely to maintain double-digit growth rates as they continue to show strong fundamentals for example Alibaba has a substantial cash position that accounts for nearly 50% of its market cap contributing to a low Enterprise Value to cash flow ratio as us equities reach what some investors consider overvalued levels many are looking to allocate Capital to other markets China's stock market has become a focal point for international investors the valuation gap between us and Chinese equities is considerable leading to an anticipated rebalancing of global Capital flows toward Chinese markets the positive sentiment is reinforced by funds such as michaelb scian Asset Management however similar rebounds have been seen in the past but this one comes with its own unique risks and opportunities which you must weigh up you must do your own research before buying any stock especially especially if it's a company in a different country or industry you're unfamiliar with Stock Investing has historically been less popular in China compared to other major economies the sudden influx of new trading activity suggests a potential cultural shift in how Chinese households allocate their wealth however the suron enthusiasm has raised questions about whether it's driven by strong fundamentals or short-term speculative excitement the Chinese government's heavy-handed approach to managing its economy and stock market has historically created unpredictable swings on company valuations crackdowns on Tech giants like Alibaba which lost over 80% of its value following governmen imposed anti-rust fines are a reminder of how swiftly Chinese policies can impact major businesses however xiin ping wants to change this narrative by providing central banks with cheap funding to give companies a better chance to increase returns for shareholders Chinese firms hit all time high free cash flow levels last year by hitting 18 trillion Yan or 2.53 trillion according to Goldman Sachs higher shareholder returns would cycle back to the state owners which account for 48% of Chinese Equity market value the benefits for xiin Ping and the Chinese government are clearly significant enough for them to invest so much money into stimulating the stock market check out these fascinating Financial stories here thanks guys
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