저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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Jim Rogers는 미국 부채 급증과 1976년 영국식 붕괴 가능성을 경고하며 미국 주식 대부분을 2~3개월 전 매도했고 현금 비중을 높였다. 다가올 하락장이 생애 최악일 것이라 보며 금·은을 보험성으로 보유하고 있으며 최근 은을 추가 매수했다. 중국과 우즈베키스탄 투자는 일부 유지하고 농업 투자에 긍정적이며, 과열된 기술주 공매도 아이디어를 언급했다. 장기적으로 중국이 100년 내 가장 성공적인 국가가 될 것이라 봤다.
다듬은 글
One of Jim Rogers best achievements was co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros, which returned an astonishing 4,200% between 1973 and 1980. To put that into perspective, the S&P 500 gained approximately 47% during the same period. This success established his reputation as a legendary investor.
The Quantum Fund continued to achieve very impressive average annual returns of around 20% from 1973 to 2000. It's worth noting though that after being the co-founder in 1973, Jim Rogers left the fund in 1980 at only 37 to retire and focus on his private investments. Not bad at only 37. Interestingly, after he retired, he took on two Guinness World Record setting journeys.
a motorcycle trip around the world from 1990 to 1992 and a three-year car trip from 1999 to 2002. His travels have significantly influenced his investment perspectives, particularly on emerging economies. Also, the experiences profoundly influenced his investment strategies and his insights on commodities and emerging markets.
The Quantum Fund was renowned for contrarian thinking and long-term conviction. With the markets rattled by geopolitical uncertainty and significant global trade policy changes, Rogers is adopting a more defensive stance. And he isn't the only wellrespected investor keeping cash on hand. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is also holding a significant cash reserve of over $350 billion.
In his recent interview, Jim Rogers discussed markets. His advice, be very, very careful. He has sold nearly all his US stocks. Why? I sold all my US stocks recently because he says he has seen this party before. His skepticism extends to the Fed's ability to keep the party going by saying even the Fed doesn't have unlimited amounts of money that can save us all.
And in fact, if the Fed ever tries to save us all, it usually makes things worse. The veteran investor is horrified by America's fiscal recklessness. The US is the largest DTOR nation in the history of the world, he said. I sit and look at the numbers and I say, "Can't they read in Washington? Don't they know what's happening?" He fears a repeat of Britain's 1976 collapse.
In 1925, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. 50 years later, they were bankrupt. America is the largest debtor nation in history. Despite holding US dollars for now, Rogers warns of America's rising debt. The US has not had a major problem since 2008 to 2009. That's the longest in American history.
He stated, "America and therefore the world is long overdue for a problem. With such a grim prediction, reassessing asset allocation may be at the forefront of most investors minds. For Rogers, this means prioritizing cash. I have a lot of cash. The reason I have a lot of cash is because I expect the next sell-off to be the worst in my lifetime because the debt has gone up by so very, very much everywhere." He said, "Things have been so good everywhere for so long.
Always in history, when everybody's making a lot of money, it's a time to worry. So, I'm worried," Rogers explained. Despite his cautious stance, he identified a few potential opportunities in the market. Rogers highlighted that he has exited or reduced most of his holdings across all markets, excluding China, Usbekiststan, and commodities.
"I basically sold all my stock investments 2 to 3 months ago," he said in a recent interview with Vantage. I still have a little bit in China, a little bit in Usbekiststan, but I basically sold out of everywhere because I expected serious problems to come to most investment markets in the world. While Rogers is mostly holding US dollars, he's doubling down on precious metals.
I own a lot of gold and silver, I bought more silver last week. I am not a seller of gold and silver. I hope that someday my children have all the gold and silver. His portfolio strategy is primarily defensive with substantial cash holdings and significant positions in gold and silver. Gold and silver are core long-term parts of his portfolio serving as insurance against economic instability and currency devaluation.
He owns both metals and has recently bought more silver which he favors over gold as the price is relatively lower compared to gold. Rogers is holding on to some of his investments in China despite the property market decline in recent years following the Everrand incident in 2021. Regarding China's recent slowdown, he says, "China did have a huge property bubble and it has popped.
My plan for Chinese investments is that they will be for my children someday." He explained, "In the next 100 years, I expect China to be the most successful country in the world." Still, Rogers remains realistic about the near-term challenges facing Chinese markets, especially with the threat of renewed USChina tensions and the economic impact of Trump's policies.
Rogers has also reasserted his confidence in silver, adding that he will continue to hold both gold and silver. While he owns gold as well, he noted that gold prices are currently high, making silver a more attractive option. The role of gold and silver in his portfolio is more like insurance than speculation.
I have some gold and I have some silver and I'll keep them in my pocket, he said. I bought more silver recently. In my view, everyone should have some gold and some silver for insurance, for protection if nothing else. For Rogers, the logic is simple. Throughout history, gold and silver have preserved their value during economic crisis, and have a track record that few other assets can match.
If you're learning something new, please feel free to click the like button. Thanks. While gold and silver are seen as safe havens, they are not immune to market fluctuations and should be considered as part of a diversified portfolio. Investors should assess their individual financial situation before allocating to these assets.
Rogers is also keen on investing in farmland. He mentions, "I've been optimistic about agriculture because agriculture has been depressed. Although agriculture doesn't often make headlines in financial media, it plays a vital role in the global economy. After all, food is a necessity, and investing in agriculture could be a way to capitalize on a sector that remains essential throughout economic cycles.
While Rogers does not consider himself a short-term trader, he believes the current market environment offers potential for short opportunities, especially for traders who understand market psychology. However, shorting is a high-risisk strategy that involves the potential for significant losses, especially in volatile conditions.
Traders should carefully assess their risk tolerance before engaging in such strategies. If I were a trader, I would learn to sell short and start selling short. He said the stocks I would probably short are the ones that have been very hot recently in the global market. Technology stocks. Roger's view is rooted in historical patterns.
Typically, when markets reverse, the most overvalued and hyped sectors experience the steepest declines. For traders who aren't confident in picking specific companies, he suggests they consider using exchangeraded funds, ETFs, to short entire stock baskets. He emphasized that if you don't know specific companies, you probably shouldn't be shorting.
Regarding his philosophy, Jim Rogers advises, "Be a boring investor in a world obsessed with quick wins and market hype." He mentions success in investing doesn't come from chasing the next big breakout. It comes from knowing what you're doing and sticking with it. He says, "If you want to be successful, be boring." Rogers reminds investors that slow and steady still wins the race.
For him, real investing is about deep knowledge and patience. While cash is king, it's essential to understand that its purchasing power erodess over time due to inflation. Despite Warren Buffett's Burkshare Hathaway holding so much cash, he said, "Today, people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable.
They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. We can learn valuable insights from Jim Rogers, particularly from how he prepares for a market downturn. He is waiting on the sidelines with cash, ready to invest when the market experiences a significant downturn and assets are cheap.
His strategy involves identifying major global trends while being aware of local on the ground conditions to inform his investment decisions. It's important to note that Roger's investment views are based on his opinion about the markets and you should do your own research. If you enjoyed this video, you'll enjoy this story about another popular investor's views on the stock market here.
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