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테슬라 2023년 2분기 실적 발표 후 시간외 주가 하락 상황을 정리. 매출 약 250억 달러(+47%), 영업이익률 9.6%로 하락, 현금흐름 양호, 부채 380억 달러. 3분기는 공장 재정비로 성장 둔화 예상. FSD 라이선스 논의와 사이버트럭 양산 기대 언급. 기술적 분석상 220달러 부근 지지선 재시험 가능성을 제시하며 조정 시 매수 기회를 언급.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock is falling in the after hours after the company reported their Q2 earnings after the bell I just hopped off the conference call we'll go over some of the highlights that the company had we'll also go through these financials just highlight the most important numbers that you are going to need to take away if you are an investor in Tesla or a potential one take a look at some of the delivery numbers we'll take a look at the revenues the profits will look at cash flows we'll take a peek at the balance sheet and then we'll come over here and look at this from a technical perspective very interesting setup that this stock and a lot of stocks have been making you've got some buying opportunities coming I'll show you where those levels will be coming for Tesla in the coming days earnings season moving right along as we've got Tesla Q2 earnings to talk about on today's show over the last year stocks up just 18 I say just because this one's been on a little bit of a roller coaster ride because if you shrink the time frame down just a year to date it shows you that Tessa put the foot on the gas stocks up over 169 percent of number Elon Musk would approve of the company reported their Q2 earnings they beat Revenue estimates by about 200 million dollars Revenue coming in just south of 25 billion dollars that was just 47 growth year over year however it appears that the company is going to be able to do some retooling on its numerous gigafactories Around the World in California Texas Shanghai and other places they're gonna have to do some retooling so Q3 probably not going to be as good as expected Wall Street expecting just 19 to 20 growth for the company coming in right around that 25 billion dollar mark That's the upcoming Q3 now I was on the conference call Elon probably the biggest headline that he made and I saw the Press pick this one up is that the company is in discussion to license its full self-driving software to a major OEM an oem is essentially another car maker and so what Tesla has done is they open source their plug-in system it's now I think called the North America plug-in system essentially it's a standard and you've seen Nissan today you've seen Mercedes 4 GM many other automakers adopt that plug so they can access the supercharger Network which when we come over here and talk about the company from a supercharger perspective always something that we've highlighted here on the show if you own a Tesla you certainly have great appreciation for the supercharger Network now this is not going to be an open source thing they're actually going to license this for a profit and we'll see what OEM steps up in terms of that now starting in Q3 which is the upcoming quarter existing full self-driving owners who bought a Tesla in the past and paid maybe a steep price for the access to that we'll be able to transfer that full self-driving to a new car but Elon Musk stressed that the order must be placed in Q3 and this is a quote one time amnesty maybe in a way the fact that they are are going to have a little bit lighter Revenue growth maybe some light tooling affecting production maybe this is a way to ramp up a little bit of demand is this is a question Tesla has often got now the all-important Cyber truck which I'm certainly waiting for one of these will reach high volume production sometime next year although production targets and Elon Musk not always the most accurate we are seeing early production Vehicles leave the Texas gigafactory now Elon Musk specifically stroked Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong as it relates to gpus he said that Tesla wouldn't even need their Dojo super computer which they are using primarily to train the full self-driving software if Nvidia could deliver enough product if there wasn't an endorsement of how nvidia's upcoming quarters are probably going to go I think that's going to give you an indication how well nvidia's Revenue numbers are going to look in about a month now the company came in with 46 percent grow growth on that Revenue side now that's not the full story that was your Automotive vehicle revenues and this might be a first time that I've seen them break out energy generation and storage Revenue that was up 74 to 1.5 billion dollars so they're essentially breaking that out along with service and other Revenue it looks like maybe they're lumping those vehicle credits inside of what they are now calling other Revenue total revenue for the company up 47 however your operating expenses over the last year went up 21 to a quarter record here of over 2.1 billion dollars at least of the data that we have here you're operating margins which is another word for essentially profit margin really shriveled up in the most recent quarter down south of 10 to 9.6 percent it has been as high as 17.2 percent back in Q3 there are some investors that believe this number will Trend in the right direction although Tesla seems aggressive on the pricing of their vehicles and raw material reals and demand still remain in flux when we come over and look at the high level delivery numbers these were relatively well known as the company reports these at the end of the month and gives you kind of a wrap up total production coming in just south of 480 000 cars total deliveries a shade over 466 000 up 83 obviously a big number in its own but obviously the company has added on a lot of production facilities over the last year so more or less expected solar deployed was actually down considerably but their storage deployed their battery business appears to be scaling up very nicely as that grew 222 and again if they are starting to break it out on the revenue side that is probably a good sign and we'll show you the profits or at least the operating profits here in a moment there and finally your supercharger stations this becomes even more valuable statistic as the Ford owners and the GM the these EV owners don't really have that great of a charging option if you own electric car you know that you can't really rely on evgo and blink charging and any of these other charging stations Tesla is very reliable and those are growing at the tune of 33 which means those are growing at I guess off the top of my head about every two and a half years now as it relates to that energy and storage business again they are breaking out those revenues 1.5 billion dollars worth of Revenue here's your cost of those revenues about 1.2 billion dollars so they are scaling that business up very rapidly again over 74 growth year over a year and on top of that it's actually a profitable business at least from an operating perspective so if those growth rates can maintain although we would necessarily expect 74 growth from the company in that business line they can maintain healthy growth rates there all of a sudden you go from growing 200 million 300 million dollars in operating profits per quarter maybe up to five six seven maybe up one day to over a billion dollars in operating profits per order that certainly is probably priced into the stock to a certain degree but maybe not all the way the higher revenues were offset a little bit by higher cost of Revenue which you would expect from a manufacturing company and the company as we always highlight does a very nice job total operating expenses went from 1.8 billion dollars last year on about 17 billion dollars worth of Revenue now you're at about 25 billion dollars worth of Revenue and you went from 1.8 billion in operating expenses just up fractionally to 2.1 billion dollars this is a very very well run company from a financial perspective very rare to see across any business line particularly in the manufacturing space from a cash flow perspective it's actually pretty decent essentially on a quarter over quarter basis last year operating cash flows were 2.4 billion dollars they ballooned to about three billion dollars last quarter they were right at that 2.5 we've been as high as about 5 billion dollars company is investing heavily on investments and other Capital expenditures tooling for their factories the dojo super computer those types of things chewing up a lot of capital expenditures and Investments that means the company bled through a little bit of cash about 900 million in the most recent quarter although on record they burn through about 3.2 billion dollars as several quarters ago but from a cash perspective you've got a lot of it at this company and certainly the ability to raise more if it needed to Total liability is clocking in at just 38 billion dollars and some of that includes some customer deposits and deferred revenue this is a very very financially healthy company now the other thing that's going to be healthy is if this stock could take a little bit of a pullback obviously a very volatile stock made some lows back here in January close to about a hundred dollars per share and essentially has been on a rocket ship higher up closer to about 300 today trading in the after hours closer to about 275 or so that is nothing overly concerning as even a pullback south of we'll call it maybe even 220 in the shorter term on this stock would actually take you back to two areas of support I will change this gold mine to a beautiful purple color that was the lower highs that we were making really since the end of 2021 a lot of people actually would have taken that trend line out when we broke through that purple Trend earlier this year I leave it in that is because a back test of that purple line is actually fairly probable from a technical pattern perspective again I'm not making predictions here I am telling you what the technical patterns tend to do now patterns in nature tend to be very reliable and predictable patterns on technical analysis not as reliable as nature but certainly way more reliable than relying on your own human instincts your own emotions or maybe some other thing that you might see on YouTube or Twitter not to put any of these people down the reason why we go through these technical patterns is you rely on these to make the decisions for you because humans tend to be emotional and irrational whereas technical patterns tend to hold true a large percentage of the time so we left that purple line in because we're actually expecting a back test of it relatively shortly with Tesla pullbacks would take you down to 200 if they took even a little bit longer actually could take you south of 200 but again from a technical perspective not very concerning I've also got this Gold Line that I've drawn in here which is measuring your series of higher lows a pullback to that area and a bounce higher would likely take Tesla back north of 300 dollars per share there's some fundamental things to like as it relates to Tesla certainly the Cyber truck I think will be an incredibly popular product if they can get this out into mass production relatively soon this continues to be a very well run company from a financial perspective they're starting to break out that energy and storage business which in the grand scheme of a company that's worth north of 900 billion dollars is still not going to move the needle but if you have a long-term Vision there that it certainly could be some Tailwinds and then finally you always have the old full self driving Rumor Mill that Elon Musk continues to pump that ever gets approved from Regulators certainly could unlock some value for Tesla and its shareholders who certainly have been rewarded year to date stocks still up 169 dollars per share I'm anticipating a pullback in shares in the coming weeks ahead those pullbacks can likely be bought that was Tesla Q2 we'll see you again in three months and see where this company is with their cyber truck and other business lines until then good luck with your Investments
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