저자: TomLee · 외국인
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비트코인은 맥스트래티지식 재무 모델과 주권 풋 효과로 유리하며, 이더리움은 토큰화·스테이블코인 확산과 스테이킹 수익, 높은 변동성 덕분에 재무 모델로서 매력적이라고 주장. 이더리움이 서클 등 대비 저평가되어 있고 10,000달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 9월 연준 금리인하 가능성과 나스닥100·AI 관련주 상승을 기대하며 향후 3개월 내 비트코인·이더리움의 큰 상승을 전망.
다듬은 글
So that's why Ethereum probably could go to 10,000 or something if then if the world suddenly realized we're going to tokenize more things and like these tokenized assets like equities, what should the blockchain be? So then ETH should maybe be worth a lot more money. Now I like the Bitcoin treasury model.
Micro Strategy uh is really the blue chip of that. But what what makes Micro Strategy attractive is that he's accumulated enough Bitcoin. You know, he's accumulated almost 600,000. That is so much Bitcoin that he has what I call a sovereign put. The reason I Ethereum is attractive in my opinion is that real world assets are becoming tokenized.
Now the e ETH treasury models there's a bit of an advantage of a Ethereum treasury company if you directly compared it to a Bitcoin treasury following Micro Strategy's model of trying to earn more crypto per share while Ethereum's volatility actually makes it cheaper [ sits just over $112,000, still down over 4% in the past week.
; If the US government ever wants to to create a Bitcoin reserve, well, they can either try to buy a million Bitcoin in the open market or they'll buy Micro Strategy at a huge premium. So, because of the volatility of Bitcoin, Micro Strategy in turn can use the capital markets um to raise money um at much much reduced cost.
Like if he was just a if he held Bitcoin, it'd be very expensive for him to borrow money to buy more Bitcoin. So if you own Micro Strategy, he's working to give you more Bitcoin per share every day and actually at a efficient cost. So over time, you're owning more Bitcoin. So you benefit from the Bitcoin going up, plus he's getting you more Bitcoin per share.
The reason I Ethereum, you know, is attractive in my opinion is that real world assets are becoming tokenized and we know that at least the most, you know, most of the real world assets have been tokenized. But the big mega trend in the past year, I mean, the real viral app and maybe what I call the chat GPT moment um for crypto has been stable coins.
you know, it's been enormously popular with consumers and with merchants and now banks. Um, it's a good business model for banks, but it's a great deal for consumers because it's a lower way to actually pay for things and it's secure because it's a blockchain. Um, one is that there is a yield you can earn on Ethereum by staking.
So, you actually can grow your Ethereum per share uh from that income activity. The second is that Ethereum's delivered volatility, so it's a measure of how much it moves, is actually twice that of Bitcoin. So in theory, if someone had looked at it as like a capital markets um access like following Micro Strategies model
of trying to earn more crypto per share, well, Ethereum's volatility actually makes it cheaper to fund purchases. So because the higher the volatility you have, the more you can sell volatility and then lower your cost of borrowing. And the third is of course that because it's a staking um token, a treasury company actually can also act as an operating business um on the network itself.
And that's important because that ties back to something I'm originally thinking about which is that as more things in the financial world and real world become tokenized then um financial institutions like Goldman and JP Morgan and Amazon Walmart as they do stable coins are also going to want to stake Ethereum itself.
So we're essentially doing the underlying architecture of what will be what other businesses will actually do. So we're essentially getting in front of what other businesses will do. So to me, uh, Ethereum might have actually languished and and lacked innovation for some period of time. And that's really what uh the fact that Ethereum sort of had hadn't moved much.
But I think that the fact that there's now tokenization taking place of real financial assets and you saw with Robin Hood uh the idea that they're going to be tokenizing a lot of things including private companies. I think that there is going to be a real look back at the the layer 1 networks that offer a lot of utility uh with smart contract, but they're secure because they're actually US-based.
Um or a lot of the validation takes place in the US. And so that's why I think Ethereum really stands to benefit. Um I know that there are other chains that have a lot of stable coins such as Tron, but one of the challenges of course is that um you know that a lot of the activity on that is takes outside the purview of the US.
There was a date where like there was a registration statement effective and then someone had written like I think the crypto world is not really used to SEC filing. So then they see this registration statement and then someone like Roadstar like, "Oh, everyone's dumping um their shares." And I think in crypto that's common because they would call that a rug pull.
They're like, "Oh, there's a rugpull about to happen." And um but I think that that's uh you know, you're right, over time people learn different behaviors. I mean I I would say um the most successful crypto traders actually are quite gifted and they actually do quite well trading equities but is you know the thing is in the equity world there's been a lot more value created by not trading you know you really should learn to be patient um the biggest most recent lesson is what happened uh from February to April like this year we had a black swan with tariffs
I mean it caught everybody off sides and off guard. And we had a basically a liquidation, mass liquidation in the stock market, waterfall decline. And we gave very unpopular advice to our fund strat clients, which is don't do anything because the it's going to be a V-shaped recovery. We said water every waterfall decline is a symmetric bounce.
Yeah. Yeah. And we had so many people saying, "Yeah, you know, it might have worked in 2022. It might have worked in 2020, but it's not going to work this time cuz the Fed's not behind your back." And we said, "It won't matter." And so, a lot of people liquidated, but guess what? We had a V-shaped bounce.
But circle, which has been a very successful IPO, and it's been the most successful IPO uh like in the last few years, and it's crypto. I mean crypto is been one of the best equities and the now the best IPOs but stable coins really operate off a layer one. So you know a lot of circle um operates off Ethereum.
And if you look at the tech stack typically the more you get into that layer one like sort of level the higher the multiple should be for the business because it actually benefits from the multiple applications sitting on top of it. &; Ethereum should have a staking yield. The yield should if the enterprise, you know, I mean, Ethereum should have a much higher multiple.
And so I did I asked that to Sean Ferrell. He said, you know, if you do the rough math that, you know, you get Ethereum would appear very undervalued if you were looking at circle relative to layer 1. I think there's two things to keep in mind. One, there's plenty of precedent for treasury companies in the historical stock market world, whether it's master limited partnerships, but it's also like the energy industry, like a commodity industry.
So that means in the market dictionary if invest if equity investors believe a treasury company has the right management team in place and the right capabilities to raise and grow the value of the crypto held per share to go up. It should always trade at a premium to its net asset value. That's what Micro Strategy has proven.
But if someone's just saying I'm going to put Bitcoin on my balance sheet, I should get my stock price go up. that's never going to work because that doesn't create that uh ability and the attractiveness which I described earlier about why treasury companies are attractive you know like can they lower their cost of financing to to grow their coin holdings per share and if they can't it should trade at NAV so I think the bifurcation you're highlighting is the market's conclusion that not everyone's going to be able to achieve that
that's Bitcoin and Ethereum and seasonally strong I think there could make a monster move in the next 3 months, like huge. And the third, of course, is interest rate sensitives. That's really small caps and financials, but really the first two might be the standout trades. Bitcoin is particularly monetary policy liquidity sensitive.
Um, Ethereum has elements of being sensitive to liquidity, but it's also part of this AI moving onto the blockchain and Wall Street moving onto the blockchain and that whole stable coin chat GBT moment for for crypto. So, Ethereum, I think, trades almost like 1971 Wall Street, which was the dollar one off the gold standard, a lot of innovation.
Ethereum essentially is a growth protocol and that's where why Bitmine is so aggressively acquiring Ethereum. This is still midcycle for the bull market as well. I mean I think some parts are later cycle like part of these the mag seven trade but I think the next leg of this is really the Fed cutting helps the ISM get back above 50 and then I think you know financials I think are still important because I I think that they're going to rerate more like technology stocks.
Goldman and J Morgan are basically technology companies now and as they embrace the blockchain they're going to become more streamlined and less employee dependent much more AIdriven so I think there's a lot to look forward to I think it's really important uh for CEOs to be confident the Fed is cutting because we know the labor market has slowed maybe even wobbling and that's because businesses are cautious and the ISM reflects it it's been 31 months below 50 the Fed can actually reingject confidence by saying we're back into an easing cycle.
That helps businesses get confident and expand again. So, there's a lot of legs to this if the Fed cuts and I think it's real. It'll be a real improvement in liquidity. Uh so, I'm looking at September 98 and September 2024 as the playbook cuz those are both years where the Fed was on extended pause and they cut in September.
The number one trade is NASDAQ 100. So I think that's why the MAG 7 and and the AI trade gets a lot of liftoff. The second is monetary liquidity sensitivity, global central banks easing, but I do think AI still has many years to just propel earning surprise and innovation and economic growth. So I don't think it's late like it's too late. It's not too late to buy the Mag 7. &.
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