저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 장기적으로 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장. 이더리움이 BTC 대비 과거 최고 비율을 회복하면 이더리움이 비트코인을 5배 아웃퍼폼하고, 비트코인 10배 상승 시 이더리움은 50배 상승 가능하다고 봄. 스테이블코인 확산이 이더리움 수요를 키운다는 논리. 미국 증시는 연말 연준 금리인하 재개와 ISM 제조업 회복을 근거로 강세 전망, 소형주·금융·산업재로 확산 기대. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 언급은 거의 없음.
다듬은 글
Let's say that Bitcoin can go from a 100,000 to a million, so 10 times. Micro Strategy will go up more than that because of its Bitcoin strategy. If someone's buying Micro Strategy, they're buying it for their Bitcoin exposure. But Ethereum today is 4,000 roughly. We show that if if Ethereum's Yeah.
price ratio recovers to its all-time high against Bitcoin, then Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin by five times. Okay? Meaning if bit if Bitcoin goes to a million and that's an 10 times from here, that means Ethereum could go up 50 times. So if Micro Strategy will outperform a 10 times rise in Bitcoin,
Bitmine will outperform a 50 times rise in Ethereum. So in a way and these are the two largest crypto treasuries in the world. Yeah, the choice is really understanding that Ethereum is facing a a positive innovation cycle that that markets haven't yet recognized cuz it's been for 5 years it's been a chain that's been slowly improving but now it's this is the moment today as crypto investors continue to speculate as to whether we'll see a price drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming weeks.
This crypto cycle is heating up and Tom Lee remains bullish with a parabolic rise in the last few months of 2025. . Bitcoin has been trading more like a risk asset lately, meaning if the market recovers, Bitcoin is expected to surge alongside it. But the uncertainty is key here. If the market remains stuck in limbo, Bitcoin could face short-term pressure.
Bitcoin's price sits just under 116,800, still up almost 25% this year. . One, if anyone's buying crypto, they have to use a long-term time horizon. Mhm. So, they shouldn't worry about the price one month from now, but they should think about where it is 5 years from now. And that's how we've always approached it.
When we wrote about Bitcoin, we always wrote about prices five years from now. And that's why even today, I think Bitcoin can still get to a million. that they have to understand there is a huge transformation taking place on Wall Street because AI and blockchain are really going to disrupt traditional Wall Street and so they should really bet on a future where that innovation is going to take place
and part of it is Bitcoin because that's where you store value but a bigger change is on smart contract platforms like Ethereum. So to me, I think Ethereum is in a super cycle. Like it's just the start of what I think is going to be a really explosive rise over the next 5 to 10 years. The stable coin industry is the first really widely adopted crypto product.
That's why we called it the chat GBT moment. And um stable coins work really well. Mhm. Merchants love it because um they don't have what they call chargebacks and the exchange fees are much lower. Uh you know if a merchant accepts Visa payments for instance that's 2 to 3% of the charge is taken by Visa.
Mhm. And if there's a fraudulent charge the merchant is forced to lose money on that transaction. There's never any fraud on a stable coin. because it's a bearer instrument. Consumers like stable coins because um it's less expensive to carry a USDC than to have a bank account. And um and then the stable coin issuer makes money
on a stable coin. Stable coins also are big owners of US treasuries. In fact, collectively they're the 12th largest holder of US treasuries. So it's a very good model for the United States. And I I think banks have looked at stable coins initially as you know they didn't really like the product but now that they've seen the adoption they've become interested in issuing their own stable coins.
Stable coins I think have a the primary distinction today is really uh US compliant stable coins like USDC. Yeah. and PayPal versus Tether because Tether is much bigger but it doesn't operate in a compliant way with US um OFAC uh US regulatory requirements because in the US um in order to have a stable coin um wallet to receive it you have to have done what they call KYC know your customer it's a it's a standard um anti-money laundering
oh uh process So what all bank account anybody who opens a bank account in the US has to do a KYC. Okay. But Tether doesn't require KYC. That's why it operates so widely outside the US. 80% of all stable coin transactions do take place outside the US at the moment. So it's much bigger outside of America.
But uh you know today there's um you know on in crypto you can just use crosschain. you can swap Tether for USDC into a compliant wallet. So it there's interoperability. Um so JP Morgan, Goldman, Amazon, Walmart, they'd love to be in the stable coin business because then they can capture the benefits of of issuing a stable coin.
I think the strongest ones are going to survive. Um JP Morgan and Goldman I think are going to be huge winners um from blockchain because they as you said they have um enormous positive reputations with governments with institutions um they have a brand that's recognized and crypto is a way for them to re-engineer their businesses to save a lot of money.
So I I think that the biggest US banks are going to become global winners in crypto. You know, the stable coin market's going to get competitive. So Circle is the biggest stable coin after Tether. I don't I don't really know the financials of Circle that closely. So if someone is interested in owning that stock, I I don't know.
Mhm. But stable coins have to run on a blockchain, right? So, Tether, USDT and USDC, they operate on top of an existing blockchain and the majority of stable coins over 60% are operated on Ethereum. Oh, so Ethereum is where most of the stable coins are actually operating and it and 36% of the fees for Ethereum today come from stable coins.
Oh, and that's a lot. Um there's a stat that was just published over the weekend, but in just the last 7 days um about 7 billion of stable coins were created on Ethereum. Wow. which is greater than the amount of stable coins on Salana over the past five years. So more stable coins creations are taking place on Ethereum.
So I'd say if you're betting on stable coins Yeah. you should bet on Ethereum. Yeah. It's like betting on Ethereum. Okay. Yeah. And that's just tokenizing the dollar. Mhm. Wall Street wants to tokenize the stock market and they want to tokenize bonds. um that tokenizing mechanism is the same essentially as tokenizing a dollar.
So that's where Wall Street is again doing most of that work on Ethereum. &. So my friends thought Bitcoin was So my friends that are in the financial business, they are the ones who missed Bitcoin because in 2017 their knowledge of the world is traditional stocks, traditional bonds. They didn't think crypto made any sense at all.
So they were very skeptical of Bitcoin. And in fact, many ridiculed um my views about it. Of course, now they acknowledge it was a great idea. I think they'll regret it. Yeah. But now when I tell my friends about Ethereum, yeah, they my close friends still do the same thing. They're like, Ethereum, it hasn't done anything for 5 years.
Why would I buy Ethereum now? So most my closest friends are still very skeptical. The choice is really understanding that Ethereum is facing a a positive innovation cycle that that markets haven't yet recognized because it's been for 5 years it's been a chain that's been slowly improving but now it's this is the moment.
So what's your general outlook for other different sectors? Uh well, I'm still bullish on US stocks um in the final few months of 2025 because there's two things that are positive catalysts. The first is that the Fed is going to resume its cutting cycle. And um we look back so in if you look at the entire history of monetary policy, the Fed has never resumed a cutting cycle in the fall.
this or this it's only happened two other times in history and you're expecting this year as well. Uh yes. Yeah, it's uh the Fed has signaled. So this would be the third time. The first time was 1998. Yeah. The second time was 2024. And this is the third time. In all the two prior cases, the stock market boomed in the fourth quarter because the Fed has been on pause and then they're finally cutting.
Oh. The second um is that the um ma business confidence the ISM manufacturing actually has been below 50 now for 29 months. Yeah. It will probably recover back to 50 once the Fed starts cutting. That's the longest stretch of the ISM below 50 in history. So that's really good for industrials and financials and small caps.
So I think that this fall is a is a really broadening of the stock market rally where the banks and the industrials and the small caps are going to do as well as large cap tech. But uh I guess I just point out two things. one, when the Fed resumes its cutting cycle, they have a lot of room to cut rates further because the Fed's Fed funds is at 4 and a.5% right now and inflation is probably closer to 2 or 2 and a half%.
So, it's the real interest rate is extremely tight. So, I think there's a lot of room to cut. That will take a few years. I I think this is really bullish for stocks. I think the most important message I would leave you is that when you think about whether it's stocks or crypto, you should understand that in the stock market, you really want to buy the best companies.
Yeah. That's why Tesla, Nvidia, Palanteer, these are the strongest businesses and they have trends that are not sensitive to the economy. &.
Comments 0