저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 이더리움을 월스트리트의 자산 토큰화와 AI 에이전트 인프라의 핵심으로 보고 비트코인보다 네트워크 가치가 높아질 수 있다고 주장한다. 비트코인은 공급이 고정되어 있고 기관 보유 비중(약 5%)이 낮아 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 본다. 스테이블코인 시장은 약 2,500억 달러 규모로 4조 달러까지 성장할 수 있다고 전망한다. 단기적으로는 시장 회복 시 비트코인이 함께 급등할 수 있으나 횡보가 길어지면 단기 하락 압력이 있을 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
The narrative of storing value is really Bitcoin's um use case. Um Ethereum's use case is that it's actually going to be used. Wall Street now is going to be building its entire infrastructure onto the blockchain and the blockchain they're choosing is Ethereum. So this is the 1971 moment where Wall Street is essentially capitalizing on tokenizing the entire world onto a blockchain.
That's a huge opportunity. I'm not bearish on Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin uh will get to a million institutions. Only about 5% actually own any Bitcoin, but 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. It's a fixed supply. In the crypto world, the dollar is 100% dominant. As crypto investors continue to speculate if a price drop is inevitable for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming weeks, this crypto cycle is heating up and Tom Lee remains bullish with a parabolic rise in the last few months of 2025.
. Bitcoin has been trading more like a risk asset lately, meaning if the market recovers, Bitcoin is expected to surge alongside it. But the uncertainty is key here. If the market remains stuck in limbo, Bitcoin could face short-term pressure. Bitcoin's price currently sits just over 111,200, still down almost 3% in the past month.
. Bitcoin uh has done very well uh over any 10-year period. And at $100,000 today, uh it does reflect that institutions are beginning to view this as a legitimate way to store value. uh because the Bitcoin blockchain uh is really one of the best ways to record financial transactions with 100% never failed censorship resistance, never fraudulent entry in its entire operation.
But institutions only about 5% actually own any Bitcoin. But 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. It's a fixed supply. Uh that's a stat from Bitwise. Uh but that 5% that isn't held yet because the other bitcoin is basically being hodddled has to be acquired by those 95% of institutions. Plus now governments want to own bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
So if you think about how it's difficult it is going to be to acquire that last 5%. Um I can see why it would replace gold or equal the network value of gold which is over 22 trillion. And that would put Bitcoin at around 1.2 million per Bitcoin because Bitcoin also is correlated with global monetary liquidity.
Uh Ralph Paul at Real Vision put up this chart years ago that shows M2 versus Bitcoin and it's been almost deadon at all the bottoms and tops. Once we would be through Fed interference and the Fed is easing, of course, that's good for Bitcoin. But in this period of risk off I I would say it would hurt stocks and Bitcoin.
Ethereum uh differs from Bitcoin. Actually Bitco Ethereum was initially a fork of Bitcoin by the way but with a added feature which is smart contracts. So what they wanted to do on Ethereum was to say let's use blockchain technology not just to store value uh but now to store information. Ethereum is is as a smart contract platform actually also has something called the EVM, Ethereum virtual machine.
So you can run entire programs and conditional contracts on Ethereum. Um and Ethereum itself is 100% reliable. It has not had a single moment of downtime since inception. It's one of the few blockchains that has never been down. Um and then if you needed to do more things on Ethereum, you can build what they call layer 2 on top of it.
So Ethereum is a essentially uh infrastructure that now is is catching the attention of two industries. The first is the financial sector. Um the stable coins became really viral sorry a breakaway product for crypto and that's like the chat GPT moment. You know there's $250 billion worth of stable coins.
The vast majority of those are minted on Ethereum. Then the Genius Act was passed by this administration and the Cong this Congress and that greenlighted the proliferation of stable coins onto the blockchain. So banks are now building stable coin products that Treasury Secretary Besson thinks that could get to 4 trillion.
That's exponential growth burning gas on Ethereum. And then we have project crypto which is the SEC building uh wanting Wall Street to build on the blockchain. Now all that collectively for from a Wall Street pers perspective is like 1971 for the dollar. And what I mean by that is in 1971 the the dollar went off the gold standard.
So in 1971 the dollar became synthetic and gold was what people bought as a hedge against that synthetic dollar. So you had gold as a as the trade and that would be the Bitcoin equivalent. But actually the synthetic dollar is what created the rails for Wall Street to build all their future products.
The futures, curves, derivatives were all because the dollar was a synthetic product. If if every if the dollar was backed by gold, Wall Street would be still a very small business. Well, Wall Street now is going to be building its entire infrastructure onto the blockchain and the blockchain they're choosing is Ethereum.
So this is the 1971 moment where Wall Street is essentially capitalizing on tokenizing the entire world onto a blockchain. That's a huge opportunity. The second story arc benefiting Ethereum though is AI. Uh because now we're moving towards an agentic AI world, but with real products. Like I mean LLM use tokens anyways, but now you need like a token that interacts across chains.
And that's where AI is going to build on Ethereum because you essentially need what they call proof of human. We need to prove that this lawnmower got a real instruction from another chain or another vendor. And so that is all being built on Ethereum. &; This is not going to be a popular statement because there's a lot of tribalism in crypto.
Uh but before this year, I would have considered Ethereum like a really good reliable chain, but without any products being built on it, it shouldn't really do well. But because of what's happening with AI and with Wall Street and you know project crypto, I think Ethereum's essentially the value of its protocol layer, like you know, Union Square Ventures calls it the fat protocol is now going to be more valuable cuz we're tokenizing everything on Ethereum rather than just gold.
Like so if gold is a $21 trillion market, tokenizing the real world is orders of magnitude larger than gold, which means Ethereum probably will flip in network value versus Bitcoin. Um I think that the distinction I make is that I'm not bearish on Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin uh will get to a million.
But what about all the other cryptocurrencies? Well, uh, other cryptocurrencies don't have, uh, the network value because, uh, otherwise they're just software chains. Meaning, so you don't really believe in Ethereum as a currency. You believe in it for other reasons. That's right. Um, yeah, I think that the narrative of storing value is really Bitcoin's um, use case.
Um Ethereum's use case is that it's actually going to be used uh used and burned. So um Ethereum gets consumed through gas fees and then staking is how you produce an Ethereum. That inflation rate has been below Bitcoin actually. So uh if you look at it as monetary supply, Bitcoin's monetary supply is actually still growing faster than Ethereum.
If I could give a little like um historical perspective, when Tether created the first dollar stable coin uh and they built it on Ethereum, their idea was someone doesn't always want to be long Bitcoin or another crypto. They want to be long something stable and crypto holders weren't really allowed banking access.
Um so they didn't have an off-ramp. So, Tether built a dollarbacked coin called stablecoin um USDT. In 2017, Google and and the UT Austin wrote these papers claiming Tether was just a fraud and the only reason crypto went up was because of Tether creations. Okay? So, in other words, it was immediately tried to be viewed as something fake.
But then Tether has since grown and of course stable coins have really grown in popularity. Merchants outside the US love stable coins because they don't suffer the chargebacks. You know, credit card companies make or merchants eat fraudulent transactions. So merchants, they get paid. It's just as good as getting a dollar.
You know, you can use a stable coin to buy real estate in Dubai now using Tether. Um like 20 hundred million transactions. So it's actually being used in the real world actually. stable coin usage uh 80% is outside the US. But the reason the US administration starts to like it is number one um crypto is a is essentially 100% quoted in dollars.
GDP in GDP terms the dollar is 27% of global economy. It's 55% of central bank reserves is the dollar. It's 80% of traditional financial market pair quotes. So the synthetic dollar which happened in 1971 made the dollar 80% dominant. In the crypto world the dollar is 100% dominant. So the US wants us to financialize into crypto because everybody prefers to get a dollar.
Um collectively the stable coin industry is about 280 billion of treasury u of outstanding dollars. They are now the 12th largest holder of treasuries in the world. &.
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