저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 목표주가 분석. 과거 2026년 기본 시나리오(판매단가 4만 달러, 1년 판매 430만대 규모, 매출총이익률 20%)로 약 340달러를 제시하고, 2030년 1,000달러 목표를 제시. 판매단가 인하, 마진 개선, 금리 인하에 따른 밸류에이션 재평가를 근거로 제시. 엔비디아를 테슬라 헤지/보완 자산으로 언급. 골드만삭스·HSBC 리포트 인용하며 FSD·Dojo·옵티머스는 보너스로 간주. 광고 전략과 CEO 교체 필요성도 언급.
다듬은 글
in this video you're going to learn when I think Tesla is going to $11,000 and it's not what you think it's way better in this video I'm going to discuss this prescription from the stock dock it says Tesla Tesla stock I'm going to explain my $1,000 price target for Tesla stock and no I'm not going to get on the knees of all of the Tesla Fanboys on Twitter who just want to hear that Elon Musk is godone I have great respect for Elon Musk I think he's a fantastic Visionary I'm going to be crystal clear up front I do not believe he should be the CEO I believe he should be a c a Visionary I believe he should be an inspiration I believe he should be involved in product development I don't believe he is the best for business branding at Tesla but in this video we are going to discuss the valuation of Tesla so let's get started with Goldman Sachs take Goldman Sachs Begins by contextualizing Tesla artificial intelligence and full self-driving opportunities I'd like to be very clear here in saying I 100% agree with Goldman Sachs that Tesla is well positioned to be the leader in AI Technologies in fact I would argue they are the leader in AI technology they are the largest position in the ETF that I actively manage for a reason I believe this stock has incredible upside now I could be wrong and I want to be clea it's not a research report for you these are my opinions and they're going to come with a set of biases you need to be aware of that but let's talk artificial intelligence for a moment and how you can hedge artificial intelligence's upside especially when it comes to full self-driving first I want you to consider this Elon Musk just installed over 10,000 h100 Nvidia chips this is to say that even though Tesla is building out Dojo supercomputers the value of a dojo super computer is not yet there to the level of what an h100 off-the-shelf chip could do for artificial intelligence as quickly as Tesla needs it for Tesla this means that as Tesla's self-driving improves you actually see more support for NVIDIA chips but in addition to that your competition like a Neo which frequently on social media is seen as driving effortlessly through roads and Heights ways without any driver intervention Nvidia is the basis for the Adas technology supporting companies like Neo in their quest to get to full self- driving but what's the difference Neo's Vehicles use 33 different sensors to help the car understand where it is on predetermined mapped roads Tesla uses vision-based artificial intelligence with nominal intervention I would argue that maybe I have to intervene in my drives about 4% of the time the vast majority of the driving that I do today is on Full self-driving and it's almost as if I'm not even driving anymore it is phenomenal at some point in the future every single person will enjoy the benefit and the luxury that is full self-driving it is like getting your driving life back and being able to do things or have a conversation or focus on what you want while you drive it's fantastic it's not to say you don't need to supervise the car much like a pilot on autopilot flying a plane you just supervise the plane that doesn't mean you have to stare out the window every waking second now what does this mean for Tesla well golden Sachs has an opinion Goldin Sachs believes that Tesla is a leader in Ai and eventually Tesla may have their own fleets and that they face a high degree of competition with companies like Nvidia which I actually think is actually fantastic for NVIDIA I think you can hedge your Tesla position with Nvidia because as Tesla succeeds they buy more Nvidia as Tesla succeeds competitors buy more Nvidia if the competitors uh succeed then they're buying more Nvidia for their success right so it's an interesting hedge even though they're very similar it's not like I mean the best Hedge for being long Tesla is a short on Tesla that is a clear onetoone hedge but I think uh of a of sort of a survivors hedging POV uh I generally don't think you survive long term constantly being short uh but uh being long on both of them is very interesting play uh because one will explode whereas the other will also benefit from that and vice versa I think the benefit of Invidia is the benefit of Tesla the benefit of Tesla is the benefit of Nvidia I think their compliments probably is a better way to put it more than Hedges but ignoring uh the Nvidia argument it's worth considering that Goldman Sachs believes that some of the best sources of revenue for Tesla going forward are going to be FSD licensing or providing Dojo as a service and this is where I actually start to divert diverge a little bit from Goldman Sachs opinion and their $235 price Target Goldman Sachs believes that FSD could be worth between 50 to1 billion a year of Revenue and the total addressable Market here is over a trillion dollar and this is with near-term upside catalysts as well such as the new product launches model 3 Highland and the cybertruck keep in mind that Goldman Sachs aptly suggests we're probably going to have a vehicle replacement rate of over a billion vehic vehicles or replacement count over over a billion Vehicles consider this uh right here we have the overall autonomous uh or automotive and services industry Tam in the long term could be over $1 trillion annually to the extent that the global installed base of more than 1 billion vehicles on the road transitions to being connected and software defined over the next 10 to 20 years now this is where I actually agree with Goldman Sachs so let me separate these two things there are two ways to look at Tesla one way to look at Tesla is to say it's you know uh got so much upside in FSD so much upside in Dojo as a service and Optimus in fact this is a very common belief by a lot of institutional analyst in fact take a look at the cover for hsbc's research report which actually came out with a lower price target for Tesla seeing about a 30 to 40% downside from current pricing and they really look at Tesla's Next Big Thing They See autonomous cars as part of that 14% fully autonomous cars the automotive division only 39% humanoid robots 12% Dojo supercomputer 17% and so I wrote some things here and I suggested we don't actually need any of this we don't need any of that for Tesla to get to a $1,000 valuation none of that I actually believe that the best way to price Tesla is with a margin of safety that considers Optimus as a bonus anything more than 10% of Tesla's total revenues for energy a bonus most of the FSD Revenue aside from what we can build into vehicle margins a bonus Dojo supercomputer bonus fully autonomous vehicle and Fleet Services like Robo taxes bonus I strongly believe that the best way to value Tesla is to cut all of that out I call that the fat I call that the icing on the cake the sweeteners that make Tesla an even more desirable investment but what makes me interested in Tesla as a $1,000 price Target and over what time frame well let's analyze that right now this is my take on Tesla a quick note if you go to meet kevin.com you're now going to see we've bundled every single Noob verse Pro course as a bundle into to the gold membership option lifetime access you get all 14 Noob vers Pro crash courses on building your wealth being a better entrepreneur and making money in 2024 these are brand new courses check those out you'll also see the platinum and Diamond options which are phenomenal go to m kevin.com to see those or email us at staff and mevin to.com to learn more or to bundle up or upgrade within whatever tier you're in so these are my this is my Tesla spreadsheet and what I'd like to do is focus your attention here on what I call my 2026 base case scenario for Tesla this is not the $1,000 sheet but let's go through it there are some important changes here from previous analysis that we've done for Tesla I've actually reduced the average selling price of a Tesla from $455,000 to $40,000 Kathy Wood sits at about 45,000 for her Target I'm reducing this to about 40 I actually think it is beneficial for America and Tesla to have and for Tesla to introduce smaller EVS like smaller batteries EVS right so a model 3 with 99 M of range the vehicle is lighter it'll be more efficient the battery will be a fraction of the cost a lot of people might get upset about that idea because Americans we like our range we like buying cars for this Edge case scenario that where we might have to travel with it but most households have more than one car and I think a daily driver for your commute to school or you're bringing your children to school or soccer practice or whatever 99 miles is almost sufficient actually I think it's more than sufficient quite frankly I think the average commute in America is about 30 mil a day that's your average commute about 30 mil that's roughly 30 minutes uh as uh as as people look at that as sort of highway miles though some people argue that you know the averages skew a little bit because some people sit in traffic and they drive fewer miles some people drive more miles whatever the point is and we could Google it too average commute in America average commute in America I was close 26.6 minutes according to the Census Bureau that means on The Daily you spend about an hour on the road right so if you're about 30 M 60 mil perfect quite frankly 100 miles on a battery is probably like 60 anyway no it shouldn't be that bad it should be if you had a 100 mile battery realistically you should be getting like 85 90 out of it right uh take off that 10 to 15% but that should be more than enough for your daily commute stop at the grocery store do things along the way or whatever you plug it in at night simple and now this is assuming the 80% charge rule so let's say the battery capacity is 120 right and you're charging to 80% I personally think that is the long-term benefit where you can actually get not just a $25,000 Tesla but you get a $19,000 Tesla that is actually profitable so I believe average selling prices will actually deflate down this is in inclusive of what we're seeing throughout the broader economy whether it's Walmart Target uh a firm Visa Mastercard travel companies you name it almost everybody is either talking about disinflation or deflation at this point in company earnings costs and they are all even Levis Vans the shoes certainly in the good space and everybody is talking about how can they provide more value to their customers I think one of the best ways Tesla can provide more value to their customers is by reducing the value of of or the cost their entry cost of their cars so how does that play into the actual numbers well I think a $40,000 average selling price at 4.4 million Vehicles which that's very simple math it's a 35% growth rate down from 50% but it's simple it's 1.8 million vehicles in 23 add 35% for 4 5 6 boom you're at about 4.3 4.4 million Vehicles depending on if you 35 5 35 A2 right around there now what we're going to do is we are going to look at margin I'm going to assume that by 2026 the end of 26 we are at a 20% expense uh or 80% expense ratio 20% gross profit margin on the vehicles we're leaving most of the other items the same from our prior analyses and this is going to bring us to a $340 forward price target for 2026 there we go that gives us a return at today's valuation let's see what the stock price is at the very moment it is $236 that gives us a compounded annual rate of return of roughly 133% now that is not my ,000 price Target I am now going to tell you about my thousand price Target and not only am I going to tell you about that but I'm going to tell you about how we could actually get to $1,000 way quicker than anybody thinks and I'm going to give you this step by step in terms of of how Tesla can apply this and how we can get to $1,000 much quicker okay ready here we go first this is the ,000 price Target it is a 2030 price Target it is $36,000 per vehicle at 12.5 million vehicles that is a lot of cars a lot a lot a lot so we actually have to grow and grow and grow we don't have to grow at an average of 35% anymore though we can actually bring the entire average to about 31% so if I go 24 5 6 7 8 9 and 30 all of them at 31% I get to about 12 go with about 31 and 1.5% average growth over the next 7 years you're you're roughly there at 125 million vehicles at a lower price range because I think we're going to yes we'll have the lugge cars but thanks to deflation which I expect will happen we are going to get this down however we are also going to get efficiencies up I don't think we're going back to 30% that would be a massive Game Changer I'll show you this in a moment but look at this I think we go to 23% gross profit changing just those two variables with a forward Peg of about 1.3 brings me to $1,000 that is a return over the next 7 years of not 13% but 24.7% if this margin goes higher which I don't think it will but this is also inclusive of FSD so keep that in mind my numbers are inclusive of FSD if the expenses 30 or the profit is 30% okay that's where these numbers go ridiculous you got to 1, 1400 bucks compounded annual rate of return of 30% but I don't know if that's reasonable so I'm going to pull that off now how can we actually start getting that number sooner there are two ways number one has to do with Elon and number two has to do with advertising number one will not happen I'm not concerned about this happening because it's not going to happen I personally think Tesla needs a different CEO I and I know people get mad at me about that you know people are like oh Kevin's the Ross Gerber whatever just want I think Elon should be heavily involved with Tesla absolutely a Visionary for Tesla but he's not a business face of the company or just stop tweeting uh this this hate inflammatory nonsense again you should already know this I'm just going to give you a quick bottom line when somebody posts a video reducing hate and then somebody replies to that video increasing hate you have a choice you have three choices you can reply you can reply to the video reducing hate or you could reply to the comment increasing hate Elon chose to reply to the comment increasing hate he could have replied to to the comment reducing hate hey we want to see more of this kind of positive messaging unfortunately Elon is doing a great job at alienating business customers for Tesla now I actually think the Bottom's already in for that we know he's a loose cannon in terms of his opinions and everybody has different opinions about him I like Elon mus a lot I think he's an inspiration and I actually think he's a great leader I think in person he's probably fantastic I don't think he's a great Tweeter I think he's probably fantastic in person very reasonable levelheaded I like Elon a lot and I think he's a fantastic engineer inspired by him absolutely but I have my criticisms I don't think he is a great business executive that's said when it comes to replacing Elon AIO probably not going to happen so let's go to number two number two is Tesla is now advertising to try to find a campaign manager They are promoting finding a campaign manager to run advertisements for Tesla this is fantastic they've also started running ads on Tesla uh or or on YouTube unfortunately uh they are doing some things right and some things not so great Elon promised during the shareholder meeting when I asked him why don't you tell people about these safety featur in the clip that we play on this channel regularly you'll see it at the end of this video Elon promised okay we'll do it we'll try it he has fulfilled his promise I respect him for that now I have some minor criticisms for their first video for example hey maybe we can get some uh individuals who can maybe more clearly enunciate maybe we can simplify the messaging a little bit more to moms or a new audience rather than Tech Bros right but that's okay I think the advertising strategy and this is my advice for Tesla so I think if I'm going to criticize I should also provide balanced support and this is how if Tesla does this Tesla could actually reach the $1,000 price Target within the next year I think Tesla could reach my 2030 price Target within the next 12 months as interest rates declined Tesla is a very interest rate sensitive sector Bond Skyrocket over $5 trillion doll of money from money markets go into the bond and stock market Tesla will rally there will be a euphoric rally and Tesla will overprice itself very quickly it will not follow fundamentals I think it is underpriced for too long and it will then be overpriced for too long that's my belief now there's no guarantee of that obviously but here's my advice to Tesla it's very simple the very first thing that a campaign manager should do for Tesla I'm going to give you my blueprint and I'm going to give it because I I'm never going to get this job I don't want this job I have plenty of other stuff going on but if I were hired as Tesla's campaign uh uh like advertising campaign manager here's exactly what I would do day one I would demand that the campaign manager be with Elon as much as possible because we need to use Elon as the tool that he is an ability to advertise when it is good and somebody who can filter elon's actions on Twitter and somebody who can document the hard work and effort that Elon puts into these companies that he is running is what needs to be done so document elon's Journey Vlog Elon number one the good stuff filters tweets is part of number one number two we need to write down the benefits of Teslas that are above and beyond that of the competition how many multitudes safer are Teslas how many multitudes cheaper are Teslas what tax credits are available for Teslas in every single state what features of Teslas do new Tesla owners not know about what features of Teslas do new car enthusiasts or people who are interested in Teslas ask about about at the dealerships the Tesla stores they not really dealerships now we're going to take all of this data and we are going to Brand our advertising around this in very clear and distinct advertising ideally with a personality like Ryan Reynolds I'm going to give you some examples now the numbers that I'm going to use I'm going to make up because I'm coming up with these advertisements right now I don't have a script everything I say is me it's raw some people get mad at me for that you know what I'm accepting of that I'll still have a beer with you you be like Kevin how dare you say Elon shouldn't be CEO the stock will go down 25% then I see the comment okay okay okay here's exactly what needs to be done ads like this hi I'm Ryan Reynolds did you know that Teslas are seven times safer than a Toyota Corolla The Institute for Highway Safety whatever whatever whatever cited this this this now this is exactly where I want my newborn children to be end simple okay safety one now you need a mom I bought a Tesla because I want my children to have the greatest chance of surviving a drunk driver or a distracted driver from killing or harming my children I want them to have the best chance of survival from somebody else's mistake akake that's why I trust my children's safety in me working coordination with Tesla's self-driving technology and the fact that this car is seven times safer than the next leading safety score whatever right again I'm making up the stats here just to provide an example mom children child safety using a mom to show using full self-driving not so you could go text but so you could be a partner with it Teslas are 4X safer per mile driven whatever let's do another one hey did you know the lifetime ownership of a Tesla is only 15% of that of a Toyota Prius yeah a Toyota Prius costs X over The Life of 7 years which is the average amount of time somebody keeps a Prius whereas the lifetime cost of a Tesla is this now sure people suggest the B batteries are expensive but we're a car company that's been around for over 13 years and here's how few batteries we've actually had to replace so when we do the math there's nothing better than a Tesla simple advertisements like this and then what we're going to do is we're going to end each of these with State targeted pricing did you know you can now get a Tesla Model 3 brand new for under $25,000 in the state of Colorado with both federal and state tax credits it's that simple go to tesla.com to learn more then they look at your they see your IP address when you come in boom here's the you know Colorado or pick your state whatever it's so simple and I know Tesla is already implementing some of these things but I'm making these videos for two reasons I want to be very clear I put my money where my mouth is I believe that Tesla is a $1,000 stock by 2030 I also believe it will happen well before 2030 and when it does I will rebalance in a tax efficient manner through an actively traded ETF into other stocks so that way I don't have to pay the government taxes that's the way exactly I'm going to do it and I believe that Tesla will go euphoric as interest rates come down well before 2030 therefore I don't have to stick around to see how margin ends up so with that said I'm a massive massive fan of Tesla I think Elon is shooting his employees in the feet I think a lot of the Elon damage has already been done it's already been priced into the stock so none of this is like horribly a surprise I don't think we're revisiting the bottoms of 2020 at all uh 2022 that is however I do believe strong advertising management can accelerate the sustainable future Vision that Elon Musk has for Tesla thanks so much for watching my video if you like my perspectives please check out our Black Friday sales event which is live already today even though next Friday is Black Friday we're starting it now and it will expire on Black Friday but
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