저자: KevinPaffrath · 외국인
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결론: 버크셔의 메타 전환우선주 투자 가능성과 AI 자금조달 필요성을 근거로 AI/빅테크 반등을 낙관하며, 메타는 저평가 매수 기회라는 주장. [버크셔·애플·구글 구조] 버크셔는 애플 약 22%, 구글(알파벳) 약 9.4%를 보유. 애플은 나스닥과의 2개월 상관관계가 사상 처음 음(-)으로 전환되어 AI 트레이드의 안전자산(안티서크)으로 평가됨. 버크셔 현금은 3,600억 달러 이상. [메타 전환우선주 시나리오] 바론스 보도 인용: 메타가 AI 투자 자금으로 수주 내 지분 조달을 검토, 버크셔가 인수자 후보. 구글의 의무전환우선주(2029년까지 연 6.25달러 배당 후 주식 전환) 구조를 메타가 모방할 수 있다는 루머. 출연자 해석: 이자소득 대비 우선주 세후 수익이 유리해 기업 입장에서도 부채보다 유리. 메타 회사채 수익률 약 7%, CDS 상승. 메타 조달 규모 전망: 3~6개월 내 500억~1,000억 달러 (지분+부채 혼합). JP모건은 지분 딜이 더 빨리 올 수 있다고 봄. [메타 가격·매매] 메타 주가는 200일선 부근. 출연자는 메타를 사실상 공짜 수준이자 '스틸(헐값)'이라고 평가. 버크셔가 참여하면 메타 주가에 신호 효과 기대. [AI 자금·반도체 전망] 이코노미스트 인용: TSMC 자본지출 비중 축소(매출 대비 44%→36% 전망), 반도체 붕괴 가능성은 낮다는 시각. 블룸에너지 발언(데이터센터 1기가와트 지연 시 연 약 100억 달러 손실 등) 인용하며 AI 인프라 수요 지속 주장. S&P500 내년 이익 성장의 78%가 AI 기업에서 나오며 비AI는 4%만 성장 예상. [헤지펀드 포지션·시장 심리] 헤지펀드 레버리지 노출 급감(골드만 기준 순레버리지 43.7%, 5년 기준 0백분위). VIX 19.5 돌파(7월 이후 처음), 멀티이어 저점 수준의 롱·숏 노출 언급. 출연자는 선거 후 랠리 가능성을 주장. [지정학·금리] 이란 협상 낙관 입장 유지. 연준은 올해 금리 인상이 있더라도 1회 수준 가능성 언급. 미 10년물 금리 정점 및 금 고점 예측이 맞았다고 자평. [결론 및 광고] 출연자는 메타 주가 저점 매수 및 자신의 실제 매수 실행을 언급(무료 매매 알림 서비스 홍보 포함). 칼시 예측시장 유료 후원, 리인베스트 구독 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway bail out meta. Uh in this we're going to break down exactly these uh notes. Uh some things that I want to start with though. Uh Bergkshire Hathaway has a massive position in Apple. It's the largest holding in their portfolio. Uh they sit at Apple at about 22% which Apple has really been a big beneficiary of being what we call the antisuck.
uh they've just for the first time in history had a negative correlation with the NASDAQ. Apple's two-month correlation with the NASDAQ turned negative for the first time in history. Now being seen as a safe haven in the AI trade. This is something probably for about I mean I feel like months now, but we bought Apple during the dual launch event.
We're like, this is not only a time to buy something that's going to sell out, but it's also your antisuck trade. Yesterday was the only mag 7 to be green because all of the others are expected to have to raise, raise, raise, including Meta. And that's why people are now looking at Bergkshire going, hm.
Bergkshire's got over $360 billion in cash. Their biggest portfolio is Apple, which has been the best performer recently and has a negative correlation with the tech trade. So, they've got even more net worth and capital. Is it possible that now they're going to start swooping in, bailing out Meta just like they did with Google?
We're going to look at that in just a moment. Uh so we talked about uh the negative correlation to the NASDAQ, but the other thing to note uh is we've got uh Apple uh approaching an Nvidia valuation as potentially the world's most trill most valuable company in the world. And again, Berkshire Hathaway owns 22 uh% of their portfolio in Apple, which is kind of remarkable.
It gives them a lot of firing uh firepower. Uh, at the same time, there's a lot of concern obviously about the election coming up, about Iran, about the Federal Reserve. You know, we're sort of in that deal window we've been talking about on the channel. This isn't about Iran, though. This is more about the selling events that we're seeing.
Last week, we had a three standard deviation selling event. However, uh, exposure to leverage is actually plummeting, which is really interesting. Per Vanda, hedge funds are cutting exposure at a pace rarely seen outside of major market shocks and net leverage is at the zero percentile on a 5-year basis for hedge funds right now per Goldman indicating net leverage is sitting at just 43.7% for hedge funds which is a very interesting time because it aligns with a lot of tech stocks actually getting substantially cheaper on a valuation basis.
is as earnings forecasts are rising, which is exactly the kind of stuff that Berkshire Hathway likes looking at. Forward earnings every single month, up up. That's the blue line here. Up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up but forward price to earnings ratios outside of this you know bounce that we had over here in April.
Forward PE ratios have been straight down since April and May. So a lot of concern around hey is the AI trade sustainable? what's cooking in AI and that is leading Barons to actually say maybe Meta is going to come uh out with some form of special partnered equity raise deal with Berkshire Hathaway.
Now what's interesting is in this they talk about how the Meta could end up modeling their race after what Google did with their preferred. So take a look at this. Google issued a mandatory convertible preferred stock. Basically, what they do is they'll say, "Hey, we're gonna give you uh pay for a certain period of time as a dividend, and then what we're going to do is we're going to convert you to shares." So, think about this for a moment.
Let's say you invested $100 into that Google round this summer. Google is basically saying, "Hey, we'll pay you $6.25 per year just for investing in our round." So, they're giving you yield yield yield through the summer of 2029 and then they're going to convert you to stock. Uh, and so that's how a mandatory preferred would end up working.
Uh and then it sort of depends on where the stock price sits in terms of what kind of stock you're going to get. Uh so they've got two different thresholds for how many shares you're going to get based on how much you invested. It's a little complicated. We don't really need to go into that. The idea is basically at the end of this you're going to end up getting the stock ownership.
So it's kind of like hey for the next few years we'll give you a yield but then you'll also own stock. Now, the reason I bring that up is because they talk about this being Warren Buffett's preferred method for getting exposure to companies. Take a look at this right here. Uh Warren Buffett long favors convertibles because Bergkshire prefers to get equity exposure rather than making a straight loan.
And that's exactly what Google set up here. And Barren thinks that Meta might actually model after this. And that could end up meaning that Berkshire Hathaway with its massive exposure in Apple has now gotten exposure into Alphabet, which you could see about 9.4% of their portfolio is Google, right?
Alphabet. So you've got 22% of their portfolio in Apple, 9.4% in Google. Now the rumoring is they're going to take this strategy and go for meta. Now who knows it's rumor mill but it's very interesting here. Uh if when they say rather getting equity exposure rather than a straight loan. Oh that's actually why I lifted this up.
Basically if you make a straight loan typically a straight loan would be hey I put a h 100red bucks in. I'm gonna get $6 uh25 $625 $625 and eventually I'm going to get my $100 back. This they're basically saying you're going to get 625 625 625 and then you'll get $100 worth of stock back. So it kind of you know that stock could have appreciated in time or whatever.
That's very interesting. And that's essentially the structure that Bergkshire Hathaway goes for. And so the premise of this Barons piece here is Meta eyes an early equity deal for its AI war chest and Birkshire could be a buyer. Meta widely anticipated Meta's widely anticipated equity race could come as early as the next few weeks as it seeks to get ahead of other companies in what we call the great suckening.
One potential source of financing could be Berkshire Hathaway, which partnered with Apple's 85 or with Alphabet's $85 billion equity offering in June. That's what I just broke down. It's a mandatory preferred convertible. That sounds like a really big complicated word. It's actually really cool though.
Something to know about this is this is tax preferred. Like Google's structure here was really smart because an investor in a loan, it's just education for you. I feel like you you get $6.25 in interest. You might pay ordinary income taxes on that because it's just straight uh you know, straight interest, which in California could be somewhere around 50%.
Depending on what your tax bracket is, right? So you might be at, you know, 3.125 as a net after taxes when you're doing a loan, but a preferred gets taxed as long-term cap gains. California, of course, doesn't have a long-term capital gains tax rate, so you have to add in uh, you know, call it 13% or whatever.
But that might be 33%. Uh, depending on what income bracket you're in, but if I do that 67, there we go. that would work out to about a 4.19% yield. So, I'm I'm mentioning this on purpose because this structure is really useful. What Google did by Google calling this uh a preferred equity round that offers you yield.
You're actually getting about 25% more net money in your pocket than you would if you called it debt. and you end up with the stock which is freaking brilliant. So Meta Barren thinks could do the same thing. Meta's debt right now yields 7% but again that's ordinary income. So you know that's high tax and CDS's for Meta are going up.
People are uh in fact there was a whole Bloomberg piece I think front page of Bloomberg right now is talking about how credit default swaps on some of these AI spenders is skyrocketing. Yeah, here it is. AI tech fears push global credit spreads to 17-month high. Metrics across the global bond market are signaling their biggest risk off sentiment in more than a year.
And this is another reason why, you know, companies might not want to do a straight debt loan and instead sell some equity because debt's like really expensive right now. Spreads on the dollar bonds of higher rated Asian companies widened to the highest level since July of 25. So basically during the uh liberation uh time frame for Asian companies moving in tandem with credit markets more broadly that mirrors a jump in corporate bond yield premiums globally which surged to their widest level since May of 2025.
So in other words it's getting more expensive to fund raise for this you know AI buildout. But anyway ever analysts told Barren that Meta could seek 50 billion to 100 billion in the next 3 to 6 months in a mix of equity and debt. JP Morgan wrote in a note that an equity deal could come even sooner and that recent weakness in Meta shares could add some urgency to that.
Meta's basically given up all of their Muse uh uh like enthusiasm. So Meta stock is right here at the 200 DMA. The Q's by the way just recaptured 707 which is fantastic. That's great to hear. Oh, dude. Meta or uh AMD, let's freaking go, dude. Well, that this is awesome. So, just this morning uh and well, yesterday.
Yesterday, we sent uh buy the dip trade alerts uh in the reinvest one membership. So, we sent buy the dip trade alerts yesterday at like 7:02 and 7:04. Uh and then we also just did an AMD play this morning. details on that obviously in the course, but it's like the stock's going straight up right now, which is really exciting.
Uh, but anyway, if you want to be part of this and what we build in the Alpha Report, I think it's been doing really freaking well and I think that's why existing course members keep upgrading to make sure they get the reinvest terminal as well. But if you're not part of this yet, join us. Reinvest one.
It's really simple. Remember, you pay once, you get the alpha membership, you get the trade alerts, you get the reinvest stocks terminal, you get the reinvest homes terminal, you get the reinvest research terminal, all the nine courses. You start watching all of them the moment you you get in all the archive course member live streams, the consumer agentic AI blueprint, the business agentic AI blueprint.
Uh this is a lot and you get that all in in one price over at reinvest one.com. So, I highly encourage you go check that out. But, uh that's great. Those are . But anyway, the recent weakness in meta shares and other AI related tech stock talks could add some urgency to this. You know, the economist actually also just came out with a piece about is the semiconductor industry headed for an almighty crash?
That was the headline over here. Uh is the semiconductor industry headed for an almighty crash? And their their thesis actually looks at the manufacturers and they think the answer is no. They say that capital spending at the manufacturers is actually falling quite a bit. So capex at TSMC only at uh 44% of revenue expected to decline to 36% of revenue and a lot of the buildout for capital expenditure is really coming from cash.
Now of course some people are a little nervous about like a Bloom Energy uh going negative on free cash flow and that is a concern that a lot of people look at. So Bloom Energy right now down 10.5%. We don't have exposure to Bloom, but I'll tell you, we went through Bloom's earnings call this morning in the course member liveream and we went through uh Western Digital.
There are screaming hints uh in these documents that we are nowhere near to the peakout uh of this artificial intelligence buildout. Uh, and honestly, if Berkshire Hathaway does end up getting involved, uh, you know, their stock now at all-time high again, they had a sell-off there after, uh, Warren Buffett left, but one of the reasons they've recently been skyrocketing is because Apple's been doing so well as the hedge or safety play in the AI space.
But anyway, imagine what happens when you end up getting uh this a a Berkshire Hathaway continued investment or deployment of their $360 billion slowly into artificial intelligence plays. Dude, people are going to go freaking nuts for AI stocks. And with leverage right now as low as it is for hedge funds, which isn't for everybody, is pretty remarkable.
I mean, hedge funds uh are again seeing are cutting exposure to semis at a pace rarely seen outside of major market shocks. In my opinion, you inverse that. Uh volatility right now is still at multi-year lows. However, we just closed above 19.5 on the VIX for the first time since late July. That was when we had the LEO era.
AI beneficiaries versus the rest of the market are down 25% from highs per Goldman Sachs trading desk. AI beneficiaries per the Morgan Stanley basket are down just 16% in one week. US long and short net exposure is uh at multi-year lows. Uh, I personally think we are setting up for a massive postelection rally because I think what we'll end up having is we'll have more color on what's going on with Iran.
We'll have more color on what's going on with the Fed, which I think is going to be they're going to end up maintaining. Uh, and then of course you'll have a this potential for a post-election rally, which is very common. By the way, uh JP Morgan has regularly been talking about going back to like the 1950s.
You regularly see postelection rallies uh after midterms. It's like almost certain. You can't really say it's certain because there are no guarantees. They're only probabilities, right? But let's look at the Fed uh hikes this year. If we end up getting a resolution with Iran, I still maintain there's a good shot at getting only one rate hike this year.
So, I'm just looking at the Cali betting markets and I'm also watching the spending that Elon Musk is throwing here on the Ken Paxton uh play. I'm getting tempted with how low Ken Paxton's odds are here. I'm getting tempted to make a bet on this. I've got $39 million in volume over here. So, this it's a it's a much cleaner volume opportunity than the Fed bet.
But this is also getting quite interesting as well as the Iran deal. Let's go look at Iran really quickly. This would be Iran nuclear deal. You actually had a little bit of a turn up here. Yeah, look at that. Just on the right side here, you're actually seeing a little bit of an edge up. All of these odds edging up a little bit on an Iran nuclear deal.
I mean, I, you know, I'm not going to rehash it. I'm obviously bullish on a deal happening. And I know people think I'm loony for saying that, but I I've made so many videos explaining exactly why that I just don't think it's necessary to rehash that. Uh I do think what is necessary for me to do so I don't get in trouble is to make it clear that Kelshi is a paid sponsor of my startup Reinvest.
Yes, that means that's more money for Reinvest to literally reinvest into its products, its services, and its investments. But anyway, uh, if you sign up for Cali, you could go to kshi.comr/mekevin. You get $25 when you sign up and make your first trade. You can scan the QR code or use code meet Kevin when you sign up.
Now, uh, as far as the taco call, uh, I think we still have about 5 days left in the potential for a taco. Uh, the taco call, I think, ends on the 27th or 28th, which is Tuesday or Wednesday. Taco Tuesday would be uh really ideal and would really make me feel good because then I could say I was right.
But, you know, otherwise I'll have to like smash an egg in my face because I'll have egg on my face. But anyway, um that's okay. I'm not afraid of being wrong. Uh I will say I was so far very right about 10-year Treasury yields peeking out and people got very mad about me uh at me at that and people got very mad at me calling a peak on gold.
Uh and that was also correct. But anyway, uh let's uh my preview is stuck here. I want to keep going with this uh Birkshire piece on uh Barons because again, economists arguing no go on bubble popping anytime soon. But going back specifically to that Barons piece that this potential for Berkshire Hathaway coming in and buying uh Meta's convertible would really send this signal to markets that hey not only are you know is Berkshire Hathaway looking at these PE ratios and saying there's a steel but they're basically then becoming underwriters in the very AI trade that make that has been making people nervous.
I'll give a little bit of a spoiler and this is kind of I I probably shouldn't but I'll give a little bit of a spoiler of something we did in the course member liveream this morning. Uh Bloom Energy told us something that was really good and this is the kind of research that we like to do. Uh so I'll we'll call it a free sample for you.
So Bloom Energy, was it Bloom? Yeah, it was Bloom. Okay. Bloom Energy said the following which was remarkable. Bloom Energy said quote every quarter delay in a gigawatt data center translates to 10 billion dollars of lost revenue. That were every quarter of a delay for a megawatt data center would translate for a 10 a 100 megawatt data center would translate to a billion dollars lost.
That translates to $40 billion per gigawatt per year. What that means is Bloom Energy is basically reiterating Elon Musk's underwriting. Remember how we said one of the big things here and as I get this ready on this whiteboard here I will take a quick tangent and just say you know how um people are worried about OpenAI and Anthropics valuations coming down sort of pre preIPO.
It's honestly the best thing possible, best thing you could ask for because if their valuations come down before their IPOs, then you have less bad once they're public. So, you don't want bad once they're public, right? But anyway, off that tangent, now that I've done a little white board here, um, remember Elon Musk's claim?
Elon Musk makes this claim that you could basically get uh a one-year payback period right now on data centers. Okay, which also sets up a very interesting trade between Tesla and SpaceX, but I'll save that for the course member liveream. We talked about that in the alpha report this morning. Um, so Elon looks for a one-year payback.
He indicates that he could get between 40 to still wet. He could get between 40 to 50 there billion dollars per gigawatt. Okay. So if we could get between 40 uh to50 billion dollars uh per gigawatt and it costs us 57 uh billion dollars to do a a facility right now. This would be sort of your leading edge GB300, maybe your Vera Rubin chips.
Then per Elon Musk, I could pay back this facility in let's see 40 that would be about that'd be about a 70% payback in one year. And if I go off of 50, 50 divided by 57, I'd get about an 87% payback in a year. That's kind of like buying a rental property and then it paying for itself from rent in, you know, a year and a third.
That's insane. And the people who have the capital pulled this off right now are crushing it. Uh so this is really, really impressive. But this Bloom Energy comment, because originally we looked at this and we're like, hey, so many deals are getting underwritten at 10 to 20 billion per gigawatt. That means Elon's time frames here are worse and makes them more exposed to the risk of depreciation.
If these chips come down in value, which is the opposite of what we're seeing lately, chips are becoming more expensive in value. It's actually remarkable is when Bloom is reiterating this, what you're really doing is you're underwriting Elon's trade a lot better. Uh, which is very interesting. Uh, okay.
So, okay. So then Donald Trump just made a comment, by the way. This is coming through the news wire. We could end Iran war very quickly. Do we want to finish it or let it wither is the question. We could take all of the oil in Iran. This is coming through the uh newswire service right now. Uh so I'm just watching that uh these headlines come through here.
You could actually get this in the Meet Kevin app right now. If you download the Meet Kevin app in the app store, Android or Apple, you can you could get those right now as well. But so anyway, I just have that up. I'm keeping an eye on that. Uh, okay. So, let's go back to the Barons piece here for a moment.
Recent weakness in Meta shares and other AI related shares could add urgency to that. Yeah. So, Meta again being at the 200 DMA, all of the Muse stuff, the Muse excitement gone. You are basically buying Meta for free now or or you're buying Muse for free now. buying Meta stocks at this value. I I think it is a steal.
But anyway, uh Bergkshire Hathaway could participate, especially if Meta offers attractively priced convertibles, whether they're bonds or equity. The thought in this article is that it' be a combination of both. Warren Buffett prefers to get equity exposure. Birkshire has historically been price conscious in a valueoriented investor.
So them investing in Meta would be a really big boon to uh to to frankly underwriting Meta as a stock. Uh and the method that they tend historically to use is they look at what they think the forward growth of a company is going to be in terms of earnings and then how does that cash flow yield compared to their investment.
This is very similar to using a PEG ratio and buying a company at a low PEG ratio. It all comes down to the durability though of that cash flow. And that's probably one of the reasons you don't see Birksher jumping in on like memory stocks for example because there's the thesis that they're going to keep building out facilities.
They're going to end up over supplying the market and then you end up with uh a poopy dupy in memory. Uh one place where you're not actually seeing some of that over supply coming as Western Digital, but that's really a topic for a different video. So um the AI trade is critical obviously because look at this.
Listen to this. AI names drive 78% of the expected earnings growth for the S&P 500. The nonAI portion of the S&P 500 is only expected to grow 4% next year compared to like the 20 30 or whatever percent that you're getting from uh the SM uh from the AI names. Uh and therefore most of the growth of the S&P 500 next year is expected to come from AI, which obviously means if you have a stall in AI, you got a problem.
But if Buffett gets in on this meta deal, and I always say Buffett, we know it's Birkshire and Greg Ael now, but come on, you know, we all like Buffett and we all miss Buffett. But anyway, uh Meta could end up issuing $20 billion of equity or a mix of class A equity and convertibles and agree to sell another 20 of non voting and uh that the stock is being that's being distributed in January.
Bergkshire has stayed clear of tech for a long time under Buffett, but a decade ago with Apple and more recently with Alphabet, it has shown a healthy appetite for tech when the price is right. That's interesting. So, is the price is the price right now for Meta? Me thinks so. So, we shall see. But that's very exciting to see this from Bergkshire.
Uh and uh let's take a look. Oh, let's go, dude. Buy the dip. paying off already. We're at 7:08 on the cues. We just exited the buy window. We actually did exactly what we said we were going to do. Uh we put our money where our mouth is. That's what we tend to do. So, if you want to join us and be a part of that, go to reinvest one.com.
And until then, my good friend, if you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll . Kevin Praath t great to get your take.
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