저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
요약 보기
메타의 2:1 주식분할(의결권 없는 주식 발행)은 실질 가치 변화가 거의 없다고 설명. 광고단가 14% 상승, 일일활성사용자 36.4억 명 등 강한 지표를 제시하며, 매출 26% 성장 대비 비용 45% 증가로 마진 축소 우려를 언급. 발언자는 주가 $1,800 가능성과 PEG 1 기준 약 2.7배 상승 여력을 제시하고 본인이 주식을 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 영상 중반부터 자사 상품 홍보와 광고 유치가 대부분을 차지함.
다듬은 글
Mark Zuckerberg is back for his own. This time, to make things even worse. They are doing a two-for-one stock split. Meta's two-for-one stock split is designed to give you non-voting shares. Essentially, they are declaring a stock dividend to everyone who currently owns voting Meta shares . The benefit to you is practically zero, as the value of the shares will simply change that day.
The benefit for Mark Zuckerberg is that he keeps more voting shares , and if they want to issue more non- voting shares, they can do so without diluting control to raise funds for their business, which spends a ton of money on chips. But I will say that there is a lot of interesting stuff in this earnings report, so we'll go through it line by line.
First of all, the price for advertising increased by 14%, record high engagement on Instagram and Reels. You can follow me on Instagram if you want, at uh Meet Kevin. I just posted a video of all seven of my children. We're looking at Halloween decorations. Our engagement per user doubled from Q1 to Q2, and they just passed Threads.
Shot in the direction of Elon, sorry, they just bypassed X with Threads. A shot in the direction of Elon. So, for some reason Threads now has more users than X, which I personally find hard to believe. But I, I don't know how they do cross- promotion; because if you make a post on Facebook or Instagram, they now automatically publish it to Threads, and they have about 3 billion active users.
I have the exact number here. They have about 3 billion active users on Facebook across their family of apps. Here she is. Look at this. 3.64 billion users daily. This is an incredible source for advertising, and they make crazy money from it. 500 million businesses use some product from the app family, whether it's WhatsApp, Instagram, or others.
This is truly impressive. I mean, these are just huge numbers. It's hard not to bypass X when X has maybe 500 million monthly active users . Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg have 500 million monthly active businesses. They have 3.6 billion daily active users. That's 7 times the user base of X. Insane. So how do they monetize this?
Well, of course, through advertising, but also hopefully in the future through news. But not now. They are now making it clear that they spend a lot of money on news, and they hope to significantly reduce this spending in the future. They avoided answering the question of how much it currently costs to provide news to each client.
They believe that future models will be much cheaper, so they will be able to serve customers more cheaply in the future. But there are no real predictions about how much they will be able to earn from this. As a news user, I will say that they did make an offer, and you can check it out too—maybe you have one too .
This is probably just a clever way to get you to subscribe, and I want to clarify that Meta does not sponsor me. But they sent an offer to subscribe to the " News Maximum" plan as a free gift for 1 year. So yes, I now have a max plan. Your gift subscription expires on October 10, 2027. It's pretty cool, but I think they're trying to hook people in, because there were rumors that many people downloaded the news, but few people used it regularly .
Therefore, to refute these rumors, Meta released some statistics. They claim that 25% of users who have set up agents use them daily. They say this is significantly better than the initial figures — twice as much as Threads, where people created an account and then didn't use it. With Muse, they are seeing twice the activity as they did at the launch of Threads, which is quite encouraging.
They stated that Plaid and Stripe had to adjust their systems due to the huge transaction volumes from Muse that they were not expecting , which is very impressive. When we first started selling the Reinvest Terminal, we gave course participants (although we have since discontinued this) the option to upgrade to the terminal with lifetime access, as we were canceling it if they didn't purchase this year—which you can of course do at reinvest1.com.
But when we launched it, we did over a million dollars in transactions in the first three days because so many of our members said, "Yeah, sure, I want to upgrade." This is great. Because they get a lot more than they had before. So, you know, we also had problems with Stripe. Now, of course, we haven't reached the scale of Meta, but it's a common thing.
I think Stripe breaks you down into small categories, and if you exceed them, they're like, "Wow, we didn't expect that." But I have to say: if you want to join, I strongly advise you to do so this year for Reinvest Terminal, because starting next year, a monthly or annual subscription fee for access is being implemented.
This will include , Homes, Research terminals, nd Agentic AI modules for consumers and businesses. These products will contain a lot of really useful information, and we look forward to their launch soon. Back to Meta: They missed their operating profit target because they took on nearly $10 billion in costs related to settling social media damages claims, and people are thinking, "Hey, money's on the line." You might as well register, otherwise they'll go to someone else, right?
If you or your child spent years growing up on social media and face jury createir supplement hid these risks by putting profits first . This recent historic verdict highlights the consequences of such decisions. Now Morgan and Morgan is taking on the task of holding these platforms accountable for the harm caused.
Follow the link in my profile, take a short test, and you could be eligible for over $1,000 in compensation. This is quite simple ould receive over $1,000 in compensation. But in any case, they say that running Muse now requires a lot of computing power. This is quite logical. I expect, as they do, that this will decrease over time.
However, Zuckerberg notes that people will likely demand better models in the future, so they are not entirely sure what the final cost will be, which is why they are not providing any predictions. They say Muse should be coming to Meta glasses next month. I made a note that this is important because the current AI in glasses is useless.
So if they add this to the glasses, it would actually mean that you could have, so to speak, a really good version of Siri. Which will be functional and which can be used as a wearable device. But anyway, Meta One: they provided information that they have 15 million subscribers, which is really impressive for their Meta One subscription.
Yes, Reinvest One was partly inspired by Meta One, or Apple One, or Google One. Everyone is doing "One" now. So we thought, "What the hell." Let's do Reinvest One. Hence our website, reinvestone.com. I'm not ashamed to join this party. I mean, hey, it's right here. You can see it this way . Anyway, that was interesting too.
Zuckerberg talked about the goal being to have your agent work with other agents, a kind of multiplayer, instead of playing single-player with your agents. I think that would be really cool. We've already used Muse for phone calls and meeting scheduling, and then companies say, "Hey , we scheduled a meeting with your AI agent, but we just wanted to confirm that you organized it ." And we answer: "Yes." But then it kind of negates the point, because now I have to pick up the phone to confirm it to the agents.
So, if an agent could talk to an agent, maybe that just bypasses all this nonsense, right? Theoretically, that's what it's supposed to be . But in any case, their workforce actually decreased by 15% year-on-year. This is truly incredible. So here's a business that's growing 20-something percent a year, and the number of staff has decreased by 15% year- on-year.
This morning I made a video about how the real danger to worry about in this economy is the job market. People don't want to hear this, but this job market right now, you know, is great. But that's when it's worth starting to pay attention to unemployment rates, labor force participation rates, where jobs are being created and where they aren't.
The fact that Meta can lay off 15% of its staff year after year. The fact that eBay is freeing, Netflix is freeing. All of these companies are starting to realize that they can do much more with AI. They need fewer workers, and the main beneficiaries of artificial intelligence will not be humans. These will be businesses that use AI to increase productivity and replace people.
This has been my opinion since 2023, and I stand by this position. Therefore. They noted that their forecast for the next quarter is 73-76 billion, which is actually quite impressive. This is a 15.3% quarterly increase compared to the current quarter, on average, which is about 24.4% year over year.
So, 15.3% growth compared to this quarter. 24.4% year over year. They seem to have grown by about 26 % this quarter. We'll see that in a moment. Anyway, we have a few more notes. We won't go through all of them. Oh yeah, I want to mention that they are now creating affiliate advertising platforms. That's 15 billion in annual recurring revenue ( ARR).
This is essentially for influencers to get sponsorship deals with Meta. And they were basically saying, "Hey, if you promote our product, we'll pay you," and Meta would take a cut. So, Meta wants to become a kind of control panel for this. I do n't really know if any of those watching this even care.
But from a content creator's perspective, it's quite interesting. I think this might be interesting because if you're interested in Meta, maybe you're a business owner and want to advertise something. So, something I've never suggested before. I'll just say it now . We have a link. It's called reinvest1.com/advertise.
And if you want to advertise here: full transparency, two videos and two streams—5 thousand . You can take a package and get more if you want. So, if you are interested in advertising a product or company, our audience is actually pretty cool, our analytics show that about 67% of viewers belong to the top 10% of wealthiest people.
This is madness. So thank you to those who are watching, we really do have a higher-income audience. This is pretty incredible. But whatever, we just left it here. This actually has something to do with it . I was n't even going to mention it. I don't think that's cool at all. I don't think I've ever said this before.
We, well, kind of, put it there. We don't know if this will resonate with people, because usually you go directly through, well, let's say, an advertising agency, right? But I thought, "Hey, if people want to go directly and don't want to use an agent, go ahead. This is an option for you." . All of this goes to the startup.
The record date and dividend payment date will be determined later, so we don't know when the split will happen, that's still being decided. If we go here and look at the company's financials, we see that revenue grew by 26%. However, their profits are shrinking. 98% of revenue still comes from advertising, but their costs are up 45%.
So, costs increased by 45%. Revenue grew by only 26%. This means a reduction in margins. To be fair, they need to spend less on marketing, probably because they give Muse away for free, which does the marketing for them. So, this is a positive for profits, but it increases their costs, which is a negative.
And they are also increasing R&D spending, which is actually happening at Tesla. Their administrative and general expenses also increased by 39%, which also cuts into profits. The big headline was that Mark Zuckerberg was considering leaving California because of the 5% wealth tax if Proposition 40 did pass.
This will be retroactive to January 1, 2026. So, a wealth tax with retroactive effect. Don't worry, your boyfriend Meat Kevin doesn't have to worry about that . But thank you for worrying about me. OK. So, we have $82.4 billion in cash and marketable securities. They still have 22 billion in accounts receivable .
$63 billion in accounts receivable, which means they have about $82 billion in free cash if you add accounts receivable to the accounts receivable. Or I apologize. Sec, wait a minute. Wait a minute. Let's do this calculation correctly . So, it comes out to approximately 104 billion , if we take into account receivables.
104, 105 billion dollars. Subtracting this, we get about 40 billion in free cash. So, let's get this straight. You have $40 in free cash. That's, you know, compared to about $14 billion at Tesla. They have a little more free cash here, but they spend a lot of it on rent. I was looking through some of my research notes, and Meta essentially doubled its off-balance sheet leases.
This is called a lease that has not yet started. And their obligations are $279 billion in leases that have not yet begun as of the second quarter of 2026 . This is not part of this balance. So, here too, there are even more off-balance sheet liabilities. So, long-term debt is a mystery because it is not very transparent, and that is not very good for a " bubble" economy.
And we actually went into negative cash flow. We were, uh, for the last 9 months we were profitable, last quarter we were profitable. We just became cash flow negative by about $1.2 billion. Now, if we look at the financial forecast for this company, which we haven't done yet, we'll do it together. I still think it's a stock worth $1,800.
I am very bullish on these stocks, but I also own a stake in them. Although I don't think that, well, you know, I'm saying this because I have them. I think I have them because I believe in them. You know, I don't, I think that, you know, it's like what came first: the chicken or the egg. In this case, I think it really matters.
But anyway, if I look at the stock, so let's call it $720 a share divided by 3,248, I see a P/E ratio of 22, 22 times at the end of 2026. And the growth forecast from Wall Street, although my growth rate is a little higher than theirs, is only 17.8%, 22 divided by 17.8%, so the PEG ratio is about 1.23.
I'm leaning towards a PEG of around one for this asset. So I really think this company is relatively inexpensive. And so if I value them at about a PEG of 1, based on the margin that I think we'll get, we're looking at at least 2.7x growth. A 2.7x increase would bring us to a share price of around $1,890.
Again, maybe I'm a little too optimistic, but that's my take on Meta. . Are you advertising these things that we were tol.
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