저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 장기 평균(내재가치)보다 다소 높은 수준이며, 낙관·탐욕·위험 허용도 증가 등 사이클 고점 신호가 보인다. 미국 경기확장은 10년차로 역사적으로 늦은 국면이고 강세장도 10년 이상 지속 중이다. 따라서 향후 수익률 기대치는 낮고 위험은 높은 '저수익·고위험' 환경으로 본다. 다만 과평가가 곧 하락을 뜻하진 않으며, 상승·보합·하락 중 하락 확률이 상대적으로 더 높다는 취지다. 무위험금리 하락으로 모든 자산의 기대수익률이 함께 낮아진 구조를 설명한다.
다듬은 글
getting the odds on your side and that's very important we never know what the future holds remember what I said you can't do anything which is sure to be right or or or anything close to certainty all you can do is get the odds of a favorable future on your side so the way I think of this and this is described in the book at length because I think it's important is the future is like a lottery there's a bowl and it's full of lottery tickets and the lottery tickets are the possible future outcome and there are many of them and it's because there are many possible future outcomes that the world is uncertain and investing is risky and something fate or whatever you want to call it reaches into the bowl and pulls one ticket all the tickets in the bowl are the possible outcomes and the one that is selected is the actual outcome and we never know which one it's going to be you reach in the bowl you get a ticket it could be any of the tickets in the bowl and there are many now does that mean that we can't know anything about the f that we can't deal intelligently with the future and no it doesn't mean that what we can know is the mix the character of the tickets in the bowl sometimes there are a lot of good tickets and not too many bad ones and sometimes there are a lot of bad tickets and not too many good ones so you want to invest when the odds are in your favor when are the tickets in the bowl most favorable when are the odds in your favor when we're at a low when are the tickets in the bowl unfavorable when are the odds against you when we're at a high so the question is can we figure out the difference so when are the odds against you when are there more losing tickets in the bowl than winners and the answer is if you put all the things together that I've said so far when there's a high level of investor optimism when investors are spurred on by greed and excitement and jealousy of other people's good results when there have been good results in the market to date because that reassures people when investors are happy with their gains or jealous of the gains of others when there is unwise risk tolerance and when there's eagerness to supply capital and when are these things seen at cyclical highs you can't see these things at lows there's no optimism there's no greed there's no willingness to provide Capital at lows if if those things existed we wouldn't be at a low these things are the fear uh the greed and so forth they're seen at highs and when are the odds in your favor what causes there to be more winning tickets in the bowl than losers the answer is when there's a lack of optimism a high level of fear poor recent market performance widespread losses excessive risk aversion and reluctance to supply capital and if you see these things then clearly people are going to be upset and fearful and as a result prices are going to be low and when are these things seen at cyclical lows now where are we now well I thought you'd never ask the the line moving through the chart is the fair value the intrinsic value the central value the norm the right value whatever you want to call it and then of course with Market fluctuates around it excesses and Corrections so as depicted here I think that we're somewhat above the intrinsic value it's hard to say exactly where we're where we are but I think we're above intrinsic value and uh you know this I'll talk a minute more uh about where we are but that's how I would sum up now what's going to happen tomorrow let's assume that I'm correct let's assume that that the market really is somewhat above the intrinsic value what does that imply for performance tomorrow by which I don't mean tomorrow tomorrow I mean over the next year and the answer is who knows the fact that something is overpriced does not mean that it's going to go down because if you could if you look back at the last uh the if you look back at the last cycle the last time we were at the same place you can see that it went much higher so the fact that we're a little bit overpriced doesn't mean we're not becoming more overpriced these Trends continue until they stop but the question is what's the where are the odds and it is true that from this point in the cycle we can have up or flat or down all three are possible does that mean that they're equally possible and the answer is no we are more likely to have a decline than a gain the odds are against us when the price is uh above the intrinsic value but not to the point where we should have certainty knowing where we stand in the cycle and knowing the odds of success can deliver one of the greatest advantages in Investor's world but it's not perfect so now if we if we have established I have established to my satisfaction I don't know about yours the fact that we are a little bit overpriced today now I'm going to talk about how one goes about investing in what I call an a l return World which is where I think we are in looking at today's market conditions and by the way my these remarks do not apply just to Spain or just to Europe or just to the us or just to China or just to stocks or just to bonds these are General comments about all the markets but when I look out today I see that the uncertainties are unusual in terms of their number and level that prospective returns in many asset classes are relatively low that asset asset Prices range from Full to excessive and risky behavior is common the bottom line for me of these four things is that we are living in a low return high-risk world but our money has to go someplace and the rest of this presentation will be about how we figure that out now I look out at the environment of the last couple of years and what do I see we're in the 10th year of an economic recovery in the states and the longest recovery in history ran 10 years in fact we're in the 11th month of the of the 10th year so by historic standards we're getting very late in the cycle there is no rule that says because there's never been a recovery in the states that went Bel Beyond 10 years this one can't either there's no gate that comes down on the 10th anniversary and says the recovery has to stop but what what are the odds what are the odds that the economic recovery continues for another 5 years or what are the odds that it stops relatively soon but certainly not today we're in the longest bull market in history stocks have risen you know the the the low was reached on March the 9th of uh 09 so we are more than 10 years into the bull market it's more than any other in history there are a few super stocks called the fangs Facebook Apple Amazon Netflix Google uh which are moving way way way up getting everybody excited some some group of what I call superstocks is present in every bull market there's very strong demand for corporate credit I wrote a memo in September entitled too much money chasing too few deals that has been the case in my opinion in corporate credit there's money flowing into Emerging Market debt and in normal cautious risk averse times the M the money is not so eager to get into the Emerging Markets but in in bullish aggressive excited times it is and by the way back in I guess it's now two years back in May of 17 uh the world was prepared to buy hundred-year bonds of Argentina uh at 9% and you know Argentina had uh I think five devaluations in the prior Century so what's the probability that Argentina is going to get through the next Century without a devaluation not not high and yet people were willing to lend Argentina money for a hundred years that's a sign of optimism and aggressiveness on the part of most investors we have record financing for private equity which is piling up money which is a statement that if you if you buy corporate assets and you buy it with borrowed money uh you'll make lot we have an onrush of capital for technology and Venture investing which of course requires great bullishness because it's all about big gains in the future everybody knows that eight or nine out of every 10 Venture Investments fail but they're seduced by the opportunity to make a 100 times your money in Uber or lift and so the money is now flowing in and finally investment in cryptocurrencies and I see that Bitcoin has now doubled in the last few months of course it's it's down uh about almost two-thirds from the high at the end of 17 but there's excitement about crypto so you take all these things together and by the so I think one of the most important words that I'd like to teach you today in English is the word inference the important thing is not what happened these are the events that have occurred or are occurring the important thing is what do they mean what should you conclude what message should you take away from the events that are occurring and in my opinion when you see these things what it tells me you look at that list it says to me the things that are governing the market today are optimism trust in the future faith in investing and investors a low level of skepticism risk tolerance not risk aversion the question is do you agree that these are the proper inferences and if they are what do they tell you about the market what they tell me is that this is not a positive climate for prospective returns and safety in this kind of climate safety and returns are not made easy they're made hard to get now let's talk about why prospective returns are low uh we mentioned risk aversion and I said as I said to you it's an extremely important concept it's not one that most people are familiar with but I was very fortunate back in the middle 60s to go to graduate school at University of Chicago where they were teaching a new investment Theory and what it taught was that there's a line like this that connects return on risk and as you can see the line slopes up and to the right and what that means is that as as Pro as perceived risk increases perceived return increases that's where people get this belief that the more risk they take the more money they make but it can't be that easy because if it was true that you could depend on risky assets to make you a lot of money then they wouldn't be risky so there must be something wrong with that expectation no what that means is that assets that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns or else nobody will make those Investments but they don't have to deliver and you have to understand the difference between expectations and and events but anyway there is an expectation that riskier assets will produce higher returns and that is embodied in the line that goes up and to the right and it starts with something called the risk-free rate uh here which is the return on the safest Investments which is 30-day treasury bills and it proceeds from their up and to the right and all asset classes fall into line so if you go back a reasonable period of time it looked like this so you have the risk-free rate then you have treasuries then you have which are a little riskier then you have high grade bonds still riskier quality stocks aggressive stocks high yield bonds private equity and the line slopes up and to the right as it should every investment which is a little riskier should appear to offer a little more return or else the market is not rational that's the way it was I'm going to say you know 10 or 20 years ago and that's the way it should be the the issue is that when we got into the global financial crisis the central banks of the world uh were afraid about the economic future and so they lowered the risk-free rate and when they lowered the risk-free rate everything else fell with it the return on treasuries and high grades and quality stocks and high yield bonds and private Equity also declined that's what we call a parallel shift the line fell and throughout and so the Returns on other assets fell into line with the increased return on uh the risk-free rate and that's approximately where we are today it would not make any sense if the risk free rate is very low and of course in in Europe there's trillions of dollars of bonds that have negative yields it wouldn't be wouldn't make any sense for for you know the risk free rate to be low or negative and other classes to be safely high so everything falls in line
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