저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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달리오는 부채 누적·화폐화, 국내 정치 갈등, 강대국 충돌, 기후 재해, 기술 변화를 '빅 파이브' 리스크로 제시하며 향후 더 큰 리스크 시기에 진입한다고 경고한다. 금은 대안 화폐로서 포트폴리오에 포함되어야 한다고 강조한다. 또한 자산·국가·통화 분산이 판단력보다 수익/위험 비율을 크게 개선한다고 주장하며, 국가 평가 기준으로 흑자 재정, 건전한 경쟁 환경, 전쟁 리스크를 든다. 중국 자산은 매력적으로 가격이 매겨져 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
but it's a period that we're entering into of greater risk and the main thing I would emphasize I think that gold should be part of the portfolio gold is an alternative money in fact it is the third largest reserve currency after the dollar and the Euro and ahead of the end in history in my history of playing markets for 50 years or so some of the times that I was surprised I was surprised because the things that happened never happened in my lifetime and when I studied history I found they happened many times in history so I studied the Great Depression 1930 to 45 period And I because of that had a systematic way of dealing with the economy when we got into depression type situations bad situations that helped us a lot in the 2008 financial crisis and so three important developments are happening now that proed me to do the study which led to the book that I wrote which is principles for dealing with the changing world order those three things are an enormous amount of debt creation and the monetization of debt magnitudes not reached except for the 1930 to 45 period um also internal conflicts populism of the left and the right never happened in developed countries through my lifetime caused by the largest wealth and values differences irreconcilable differences perhaps that could lead to a type of Civil War a type of Civil War I'm not saying necessarily guns and shooting but I am saying a type of Civil War and certainly is leading to Great conflict and dysfunction in government not just in the United States but other places and the third great influence of course is the great power conflict in other words through a cycle there's a war dominant Powers win the war this was in 1945 then the new rules of the game are established particularly by the dominant power being able to establish them and then there's period of Peace of prosperity and then with time other countries come along and become competitor such as China has come along and become a competitor so there are also two other factors that I found I called these together the big five the other Factor number four is acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics have throughout history actually caused more debts and toppled more orders than the first three that I mentioned and then throughout history great technology changes big changes such as the industrial revolutions and of course we are going through those types of changes with with AI and other forms of technology changes that are having and will have revolutionary effect so I call that you know the big five so that's a typical cycle and you have to watch it and give whatever thought and Credence to that that you think is appropriate but let me touch on the big five by my calculations and understanding the mechanics of the creation of debt the creation of debt for individuals or companies and governments is all the same except for one big difference in which that is the government's ability to print money to pay debt in other words debt is an obligation to pay back money and if that system works well there's a reward interest rates are high enough to be good for the lender who becomes the Creditor that lender creditor can have a high enough interest rate that they get a good return from that lending and that the borrower doesn't have such a high interest rate that that is crushing for them financially and the more debt Rises relative to income the more difficult that is so the debts that have been accumulated and large debts are projected particularly in the United States but this is now a world phenomenon there's simply not enough money to go around so for all the social programs military and other things there is therefore the progression of debt continuing to rise relative to incomes which is setting itself up for a challenge central banks by buying the debt have taken on their balance sheets and so that is a risky situation which evolves over time it's not the most immediate situation but it certainly be affected by the other things that are going on all of five of these by the way affect each other so the interrelationship in creating that cycle is important okay the second is the internal conflict and of course that is the highlight of this year you know how will particularly the elections in the United States go you know there are two questions related to that will the elections be accepted by both sides and what are the consequences of that we honestly don't know the answer answer there are reasons for concern and um I'll leave that to you but there are also very big differences between the policies of what would be a trump Administration and what would be a democratic Administration particularly the issue of um Left Right both parties Have moderates and Have extremists and in both cases there will be likely conflict between the extremists and so in the Trump presidency you're getting much more of a nationalistic isolationist protectionist type of policies that are of the right and are likely to offer more protections to those who have larger amounts of money come the wealthy and the corporations and of course on the left most of those policies are somewhat different but the one thing that there's broad agreement on is the I would say anti-china policies so in 2024 we are going to learn a lot about these and what the policies will be the second um third influence excuse me of the great power conflict is something that you all see up close and both countries the United States and China have their own sets of challenges in China's case there is of course the real estate creating the debt issues and the economic issues coming from that and as president XI said there's an approaching one in 100e storm on the horizon and there are domestic issues climate of course is a big issue has always been for China and um there are those financial issues and taking more of a topown more autocratic type of approach to consolidating power and operating from the top and then of course in the United States we have the internal conflict and the problems we just spoke about and of course that has enormous implications for the world because if you read history you see that the economic Warfare precedes military Warfare I can't comment I have no particular inside information regarding military conflict you all see the situation I believe it's most likely that there's not an imminent form of military conflict but we do have a situation of course with Taiwan that there is a one China policy and that will not go on forever and so that has created a set of circumstances now in which there are questions there are questions from International investors about about whether they will experience consequences that could come from their governments for example American investors investing in China could experience from their government negative consequences for that and then there's also the worry from Chinese side could make that challenging and um then there's the raising of issues of the ideological issues let's say in China is it still glorious to be rich what does the continuation of market economy how is that going to work and how does property protections work and how are the issues about common Prosperity what does that all look like and so that's an evolutionary set of circumstances which you're exposed to and creates risks and issues and even Capital flows that change the world landscape for example Chinese producers uh producing outside of China and not only in the asan countries like Vietnam and the like but also in countries like Mexico and how does that all work that's changing the landscape and of course there's a great risk of economic sanctions an exchange of economic sanctions that would be really terrible for the world so there's risks behind that at the same time Chinese assets are very attractively priced and we've done very well Bridgewater has done very well over the last 5 years of operating in there and so there are certainly effective ways to make investments in China and then we come to the fourth influence which is the climate issue and there's particularly climate droughts floods and pandemics which have been incredibly Det terministic and influential in China and so at a minimum this is going to be very financially costly in one way or another either to try to keep climate temperature levels rising to one and a half degrees and venting new technologies or paying the for the damages that occur from it or building infrastructure to protect oneself around that seaw walls and other things it costs about estimated cost $8 trillion a year that $8 trillion a year worldwide is equivalent to about 8% of world GDP it's certainly going to be a disruptor and it'll change migration patterns and it'll have big big effects and of course number five as I said was technology and and my opinion we are going right now through the greatest Industrial revolu ution changes you know and when I look at history and I think the power of the printing press in being able to have knowledge pass and when knowledge could be built on and shared what an incredible invention and then of course we went from the agricultural age to the Industrial Age in which we learned man learned that machines could replace people doing a lot of different things and that created of course a great economic boom and of course we have had the digital Revolution that's gone on that's included all that you know um all its various ways that you're well acquainted with and of course this technology Revolution AI when you start to think thinking touches everything and the capacity to either supplement one's thinking or to do work that could have been less effectively done at more costs by people and the productivity impact but also technology could be used for war it's a fabulous tool and we're entering an era that we really can't fully anticipate so those five forces are interdependent on each other and will influence but it's a period that we're entering into of greater risk and the main thing I would emphasize is the need for effective diversification so if I was to leave you with some messages the messages would be that the power of diversification is greater than the power of even good decision making because you can improve your return to risk ratio by a factor of five if you can find good uncorrelated return streams and when we think about diversification diversification means diversification of uh countries diversification of asset classes diversification of currencies and so broader diversification I can't take the time to take you through really the structural ways of being able to diversify weal but I would also emphasize some big picture tactical considerations basically there are three things that I look for in countries and I suppose to some extent looking for it also in corporations countries and people in terms of managing their finances and so here they are first does the country as a whole earn more than it spends so does it have a good income statement and a balance sheet so that it is has the financial capabilities of dealing with the issues at hand the second is environment that is conduced for healthy competition and working together to create great productivity through great leadership and great productivity and number three is it a country that is at risk of a war to be caught between countries in a war you know I studied markets behavior in wars and I there are three types of countries those countries that are the winners those that are the losers in the war and those that are neutral in the war and it turns out that those that are neutral in the war do better than the winners of the war who still pay a terrible cost financially as well as in loss of life and destruction and then of course the worst is The Losers of the war who lose everything my main point is that in thinking about what is the Financial Health of a country how well do they work together to be productive together and are they at risk of a conflict that would be disruptive to all of that so that's what I look at when I'm thinking about diversification I think about diversification of asset glasses
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