저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 2000달러에 도달한 상황에서, 로빈후드 보유 계좌 수와 주가가 동일한 비율로 상승한 점을 근거로 바이럴성 상승을 설명한다. 2024년 예상 실적(차량 300만→500만대 시나리오)을 바탕으로 2000달러는 현재 실적 대비 비싸지만 미래 성장 기대치로는 합리적일 수 있다고 본다. 분할 후 가격 기준으로 1500~1600달러 부근 매수를 선호하며, 당장은 보유 입장이고 매도는 세금 때문에 하지 않겠다고 밝힌다.
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tesla just hit two thousand dollars per share is it a buy is it a sell or am i gonna go back to the oregon trail and get dysentery which if that happens i better make sure my life insurance is still up to date which i can get in the description down below because that's a sponsor for this videnna break down what i think is going on a very very strange and bizarre coincidence of what's happening in tesla stock and uh then we'll make some recommendations and of course i'm just a dude on youtube i'm wearing a dysentery shirt with what some people think is a members only jacket in the middle of summer so take my advice for what it's worth uh so let's get started first i'd like to clarify that yeah i am a dude on youtube who has been pitching tesla stock for a while and i'm not saying that to pat myself on the back because i realize our ability to invest in stocks fluctuates based on our income over time so it's not like you should feel bad that you didn't buy more stocks in the past that's how i feel to everybody feels that way it's like i wish i had more money and could have bought more in the past everybody feels that way that's totally human nature so don't feel bad if you're feeling that way what i do want to do though is i just want to prove to you that yeah i do put my money where my mouth is when i say i have over 50 of my portfolio in tesla i got over 50 of my portfolio in tesla when it comes to stocks and this is it this is my m1 finance uh i do have some money at chase and robin hood and tesla as well but just to prove to you uh just the green number there is the gain just my tesla shares alone have experienced over you know roughly probably most of this is roughly last eight months when i began using m1 finance and so obviously if more than half of my portfolio is in tesla it's very important that i stay very attuned with what's going on with tesla because again i don't want to go back to the oregon trail okay i like autopilot way too much way too much i've gotten so lazy when it comes to driving so what the heck is going on well here's what we're gonna do we're gonna start with a bizarre coincidence then we're gonna talk about what i actually think is happening then we're going to talk about the recommendations okay so here's the weird kawinkadink first the coincidence this is so weird 73 days ago there were 250 000 users of robinhood holding shares of tesla 250 000 accounts that had at least a tesla share okay today there are at least 563 000 robinhood accounts holding tesla stock if we divide those two we get about an increase of 225 percent 225 and remember 200 is doubling so that means we saw a more than doubling of the accounts at robinhood holding tesla shares well guess what just happened over that same period of time 73 days ago on june 7th tesla was trading for about 885 dollars per share well now if i divide two thousand dollars today's share price for tesla by 885 dollars the june 7th price i also see a 225 gain in the share price that is a very bizarre coincidence that the exact same growth in the amount of people holding tesla stock at robinhood perfectly matches up with the share price gain over that same period of time that's weird now robin tracks data's a little bit behind so it's not exactly perfect but it's a weird coincidence it appears that people on robinhood are going nuts over tesla stock now this is not a science obviously this is not a science let's hop on over to where you see this data just so you can take a peek at this and tell me what you think about it because i'll tell you it seems a little weird okay this is robin robintrack.net and again it's a little outdated the price is a little outdated here and that's fine we're going to take a look at a trend here quick note this is not sponsored this video is sponsored by life insurance and the awesome lectures and courses that i hav all that good stuff use coupon code larry that's down in the description to join as well that coupon code expires soon so check that out we'd love to have you there we talk about stocks in the market every single morning through live streams that i personally hold with you but anyway let's look at this so here you go june about seventh there's that 250 000 holders at the price of about 85 and look at the growth to about 560 000 users again the data is a little bit delayed but it's bizarre it shows you that almost one-to-one alignment in growth over that period of time which there's something that seems to be really interesting about tesla and robinhood investors or investors into tesla through robinhood it seems like when a stock turns green people are more likely to buy it at least that's been the recent trend which is kind of the opposite of what i like to do but take a look at this you get this green line that has a massive run-up between may and right around here the beginning of july and then all of a sudden because the price has gone up you get a surge of more investors who come in which then pushes the price up even more i guess you could almost call it kind of like a viral stock this would be the opposite of what you would expect to see with profit taking for example if we go back to 2018 over here this is what profit taking looks like when you have a hundred and twelve thousand people holding tesla stock and then all of a sudden you see the price goes up and you see the amount of users holding tesla stock go down that's profit taking over here let me just get rid of the picture picture so you can see that a little more see that's what profit taking looks like this is just following the viral trend and that makes sense because tesla is a company that not only provides green vehicles but there are cars that drive themselves honestly i would prefer not to drive and just let the car do the work and it's really good at it plus i could put tesla solar panels on my house i could get a tesla battery for my house and i don't have to worry about having a generator that that never seems to start when you need it but folks this is like the definition of the future and i think that's why we're seeing that hope but hope is not a good way to trade in fact hope is generally not a good way to invest that's exactly how i don't invest i invest where i see value where i see growth especially if i can buy things cheaper than what i think they're worth that's what i do every day in real estate i see something for 400 000 that i know could be worth 600 grand boom that's a buy for me that's easy peasy so what the heck could we possibly glean from tesla's valuation that would make us even remotely think that two thousand dollars per share is a good deal maybe it's not let's talk about 10 days ago i outlined my thesis for why tesla might be able to produce and sell 3 million vehicles by the end of 2024 producing a profit of about 50 000 per car would lead to about 150 billion dollars worth of revenue at a margin of around 26.5 this company rakes in a profit of around 39.7 billion dollars they're going to have obviously operating expenses and taxes and it would be reasonable for this company to return about 73 dollars in earnings per share by the end of 2024 this is something really important to remember is this company is not trading based on today's price to earnings ratio it's trading based on its future potential earnings and that's exactly what we're seeing here if tesla ends up nailing these figures if it's a big if right it's speculation but hopefully we can make educated opinions which i broke apart with gigafactory production the rate of production we're seeing the sales backlogs all that good stuff helps us sort of make these deductions and so if these numbers are true then it would be reasonable that by the end of 2024 tesla could be worth around 29.40 per share or just shy of three thousand dollars per share and sometimes these growth companies if they continue to show exponential growth sometimes they run up to a hundred times earnings per share in which case this stock could be a seven thousand dollar stock which there's plenty of clickbait on youtube about all tesla's going to seven thousand that's how they do it they just multiply it by a larger earnings figure right well if you bought it today at two thousand dollars instead of fifteen hundred which was the last time i made a video on the company that over the next four years would work out to about a ten percent return compounded per year that's not terrible that's actually pretty good honestly and if you're wrong and these numbers are better great if the numbers are worse you're probably still somewhat insulated because there's so much potential growth with the company unless of course tesla goes bankrupt and nobody wants to buy teslas anymore so tesla right now produces just under 500 000 vehicles but has the capacity to grow to produce about 2 million vehicles by the end of 2021 let's say they never grow past 2 million vehicles and we change this math to 2 million vehicles well at 2 million vehicles produced by the end of 2024 that means they get to the end of 2021 and then no growth for 2022 no growth for 2023 and no growth for 2024.
if you think that tesla's not going to grow over 2022 23 and 24 then a fair price for tesla stock might be about 1960 with no growth for those last three years which means you would have a slightly negative return right about losing about half percent for a fair value at about 40 times earnings in my opinion obviously these numbers could be wrong but it goes to show you that even if they stalled the value might not be that terribly wrong at 2 000.
now do we think that tesla really has the massive potential to return 20 to 30 percent per year maybe let's try to see what they'd have to produce let's change this 3 000 units produced and say they just grew exponentially in 2023 and 2024 we don't have hyperinflation that destroys the world let's go to 5 million vehicles produced per year there we go 5 million vehicles at the same margin let's say we'll keep everything the same we'll go ahead and bump the uh operating expense oh we've got them at 15 that's fine so i've already got all of this percentaged out perfect uh that would be earnings of about 122 per share times 40 times earnings means this could be a 5 000 stock if they produce 5 million vehicles and they make just no money from energy semis and automotive licensing or autonomy licensing call those lost leaders you know sell the solar panels at a loss just to get people into the cars fine honestly they probably do that anyway that that would work out to a 25 return per year it's actually not terribly far-fetched so is tesla expensive today at 2 000 per share heck yeah it is it's at the peak of where it's ever been based on today's earnings it's a terrible investment based on the potential future and how many vehicles you think tesla can produce it could be a phenomenal investment so here are your three choices you can one buy hold or sell you already knew that though so what's the case for buying well buying in my opinion the best way to buy tesla right now would just be to buy it as part of a basket of other stocks for example if you go to metkevin.com 1337v4 i'll link that down below metkevin.com1337v4 you'll see that that's a basket of about 40 stocks where i collect stocks in it and when i just need to park cash i can park cash in that sort of group of stocks if i want to that way i'm not over exposing myself to tesla especially at the higher prices i personally like using m1 finance because they make that really easy for me not the biggest deal you can do these manually on robinhood or whatever but take a look at this when i jump over here this is for example my 1337v4 and you can see if i put money into this if i put 10 grand into this portfolio right now it's gonna trickle the money out over all of the different stocks if i was going to put money into the 1337 v4 right now i'd be okay with it about 12 percent of my money would be going into tesla stock that's okay i'm all right with that even at 2000 and i know that seems crazy would i individually buy tesla at 2000 no that's because tesla usually has a tendency not always but it has a tendency of running up for 10 to 21 days right now we're on about day 10 of the run up so there's a good chance that tesla at some point within the next couple weeks will see a nice pullback hopefully it pulls back to like 1700 to 1600 to 1500 again if it goes lower whatever great more opportunities to buy the stock now if you're watching this video after tesla splits then any number that i refer to just divide it by five i personally would love to shop for tesla around fifteen to sixteen hundred dollars per share that's when i last bought tesla shares that's where i'm more comfortable that's where i really start liking the return potential based on my future outlook for the company now if if if it continues to sit around 2 000 uh i don't know i would just probably buy it like i said in that that basket of other stocks where 12 is going into tesla i've got some money going into amazon apple and some of the other ones that way i'm still getting a heavy tesla exposure but i'm not putting everything too heavily on tesla which i have consistently done but i'm doing less and less of as tesla continues to go to the moon now that's the buy mentality what about just holding in my opinion that's totally fine too holding is something that i've been more tempted to do lately just because everything has run up quite a bit and so i don't mind just waiting for that next red week the last 10 days almost the entire market has just seen green and i'd prefer to wait for a little bit more fear in the market the problem with that is there's no guarantee that it's going to come and then end up being lower than today's prices and that's always the bummer about waiting and this is why people say don't try to time the market get in the market and then wait right don't wait to buy buy and then wait and it makes sense because look you could have bought it at 1800 and let's say it goes up to 2400 and then it falls to you know 2100 yay i'm buying after it fell 15 sure but you could have bought it when it was green at 1800 right that's that's the mind trips that you have to be worried about my opinion i just don't like buying when things have rallied so crazy green i'd rather wait to see some more pain in the market and then whatever that price ends up being that's when i'll buy so me i'm mostly a hold right now until i start seeing some more softness in the market and generally you don't have to wait more than a couple weeks to start seeing some fear come back in the market there's always some short seller or some report that's going to make everything turn red for a few days that's the time to be ready for in terms of sell should you just dump out a tesla and sell i don't like that idea one of the reasons i don't like that idea and it's probably the biggest reason look i live in california and it's taxation taxation sucks if you have short-term capital gains you get taxed at your ordinary income tax bracket you can always check with your cpa how you could work that out but here in california that means you're paying somewhere between 35 to 50 percent in taxes on your gains no thanks like literally the stock could plummet 35 that's what i'm doing when i sell in my opinion so i hate paying taxes no thanks if you're in a maybe uh like a texas or florida where you don't have to pay state income tax and maybe your marginal tax rate isn't that high fine maybe you're only paying 25 or 20 in taxes but still i would be buying the stock if it fell 20 25 i'm not interested in closing out my tesla position so for me i'm a big hold thanks so much for watching my updated thoughts on tesla i hope you appreciated them and folks we will see you next time
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