저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 5대1 액면분할 발표를 두고 분할 자체는 가치 변화가 없으며 단기 분할 기대감은 대개 지속되지 않는다고 설명. 2024년 300만대 판매, 대당 5만달러 매출, 판매당 이익 26.5달러, 영업비용 15% 등을 가정해 주가 약 2,940달러(분할 전 기준, 현재의 약 2배) 도달 가능성을 제시. 그러나 본인은 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here i own 2387 shares of tesla and today tesla announced a 5-1 stock split and so this brings up the question is now the time to buy tesla or is it time to sell here's my breakdown first tesla stock split will go into effect on august 31st this is three days after apple's stock split which is scheduled for august 28th for tesla for every one share of tesla you have you will end up getting five so for me instead of having 2 387 shares of tesla i will now have 11 935 shares of tesla on august 31st which honestly sounds quite ridiculous but it also means the price of each share is going to get divided by five so that means a fifteen hundred dollar tesla share will actually end up selling for about three hundred dollars so basically nothing happens and with fractional shares it kind of leaves us wondering like well why why like why would they do a stock split anyway like what's the point well the interesting thing is when we analyzed apple's stock split after they announced earnings we discussed the psychology of apple's stock split when a company splits its stock it makes its share price look more accessible it makes the company feel more relatable to the average everyday investor and therefore also more relatable and attainable to the average everyday consumer which is actually a way a company can help brand itself as always being accessible whether it's our stock on robinhood or it's our products in our store we want something for everyone that's exactly why apple has an inexpensive iphone c that's exactly why tesla has a base model model three and rather than just catering to the higher end companies are trying to cater to the middle and lower end to attract more consumers and be accessible to more people in terms of a stock split this now creates free advertising and tesla is famous for its lack of advertising i mean after all people flock to tesla because they love tesla they love the brand they love what it stands for zero emissions a cleaner future renewable energies and of course self-driving technology but what does it actually mean for the stock well in the short term usually not much in after hours tesla stock did go up about six percent and this is usually referred to as stock split hype but keep in mind that stock split hype doesn't usually tend to last nothing has fundamentally changed at tesla so if we want to talk fundamentals then i guess we should probably talk fundamentals so how do we figure out what the value of tesla is is tesla worth fifteen hundred dollars per share aka three hundred dollars per share post stock split well here's an easy way to determine just that let's start with something a little bit easier to do let's try to think of how many cars and cyber trucks tesla could sell by 2024 i strongly believe in the number that i'm going to tell you but let's think about it right now tesla is delivering somewhere around 500 000 cars per year and a tesla expects to ramp this up to a million cars per year soon and once they get their fourth gigafactory online tesla could be selling two million cars by the time they get all of their gigafactories up to speed that's because a tesla is expecting to produce 500 000 cars in their fremont facility in california eventually they can produce 500 000 cars in shanghai china then they're building a massive gigafactory in berlin germany and they're building another one in texas to produce the cyber truck and the tesla semi truck if all of these gigafactories together can output 2 million cars per year by the end of 2022 that gives us two and a half years to actually get to that target then it might be realistic to assume tesla could generate 3 million car sales by 2024 that's another two years later so let's go with three million cars now remember there's an asterisk on this right this is really guessing but we're trying to make an educated guess because right now they produce 500 000 cars out of two giga factories that aren't even at full capacity yet and so if we give them two and a half years and say two million and we give them another two years and say three million that sounds reasonable especially if each gigafactory can produce about 500 000 cars well let's do some quick math if tesla sells 3 million cars in 2024 and each car generates 50 000 of revenue for tesla then that creates 150 billion dollars in revenue that's like money coming in that sounds good and tesla's current profit per vehicle including credits is somewhere around 26.5 okay well that's easy times 26.5 which by the way elon musk expects that number to approach 30 percent but let's stick with 26.5 and stay a little bit more on the conservative side and that is what they're hitting now that brings us to a profit of about 39.75 billion in profit now we got to take out some research and development fees and some administration fees they don't have a lot of advertising fees but their overall operation expenses after they produce the cars tend to be around 15 percent of the company's revenue that could end up declining that could go down to 10 who knows but let's stick with 15 we don't want to change too many variables so let's take out another 15 and now we're left with about 13.6 billion in profits by 2024.
if we now take those earnings and multiply them by 40 divided by how many shares there are we would find that tesla might be worth instead of fifteen hundred dollars per share somewhere around two thousand nine hundred forty dollars per share or about double what their stock price is today but wait a minute we actually have to add in a few things i forgot a few things we got to put in a valuation for tesla solar lowest cost solar available right now tesla batteries from their solar division selling more than ever tesla insurance which they tend to have much higher profit margins because teslas crash way less and cause less damage when they do crash tesla semis tesla autonomy which they might license in the future well let's just call all that stuff the icing on the cake like literally all the stuff i just mentioned let's just put that together and give it zero value and just call it the icing on the cake so in other words if i invest 1500 in tesla today and i get one share which by august 31st will be five shares but it'll be divided in price it'll still be fifteen hundred dollars in tesla and let's say tesla achieves this three million vehicle production target and we do hit that stock price of 2940 by the end of 2024 that works out to a 13.6 return on my money over the next four years plus the potential growth of all that icing you never know so there are a few things that can happen here we could be right and that number could happen or everybody could start hating tesla and nicola could take over the world with hydrogen cars and tesla's going to go bankrupt or i'll be really wrong and tesla's stock price will actually be a lot higher because tesla insurance will take off solar will take off and all the other products will take off and so i guess as a dude on youtube who's definitely not providing any financial advice and is just highly recommending that he link down below let me put it this way when i think about tesla and the bottom line of tesla i have 23 87 shares today my goal is to hit 2500 by august 31st that way when the split happens i've got an even 12 500 shares and that's my pov on tesla if you like this breakdown on what i think about tesla make sure to consider subscribing to the channel i have a stock playlist where all i do is talk about stocks in that stock playlist so you imagine that and uh if you like the video make sure to share it as well thanks you
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