저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin은 2020년 8월 기준 6개 성장주(Rocket Mortgage, Lemonade, Purple, Peloton, Dave & Buster's, Redfin)를 소개하며 각 회사의 사업 구조와 성장성을 설명한다. Rocket Mortgage는 주당 적정가 최소 30달러를 제시하고 8월 현재 약 23.54달러로 본다. Purple은 2021년 말 매출 10억 달러 도달 가능성과 주당 80~100달러 전망을 말한다. Lemonade는 2021년 1월 주식 희석 리스크를 경고하며 보유 입장이다. Peloton은 9월 10일 실적 발표를 주목한다. Dave & Buster's는 Chuck E. Cheese 파산 수혜를 근거로 긍정적이나 파산 리스크를 인정한다. Redfin은 PER 약 112배로 높지만 리스크는 상대적으로 낮다고 본다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here today i'm going to talk about my top six favorite growth stocks instead of doing a super deep dive onto each stock and putting you to sleep with stock information i'm going to give you a very brief overview of these companies and then i'm going to give you my thoughts on price and how much of these companies i own we're going to keep this short and sweet i want to make this as easy as possible for you i value your time quick note if you have not yet the artist is a video about stocks but i'm not a profit nobody can tell you what a stock is going to do tomorrow and most people won't even give you price targets on youtube because they're worried about being wrong i don't mind giving you price targets because that's what i feel even if i'm wrong in the short term at least i'm giving you my reasons but it's always important that you do your own research and determine your opinion of those price targets and if you think the company has value with that said let's get started with number one company number one rocket mortgage currently priced at about twenty three dollars and 54 cents rocket mortgage just ipo'ed that means they just went out onto the public market their initial public offering and this my folks is a totally underappreciated stock in my opinion i think the fair valuation for this company is at least thirty dollars per share it ipoded for 18.
it's now about 23.54 the bid to me this this company still has plenty of room to grow uh into its valuation today i i don't i honestly in my private investing courses uh during the live stream when it ipo'd and we had a live stream i remember telling my course members like why why is this not going up higher like this company should be worth more uh anyway it ended up going up about 20 within the next 24 hours so that was nice sort of reiterated by what i thought but i do still think this company has a long run growth potential so here's the thing rock and mortgage doesn't just do loans they do things like title insurance and some other services as well and as a real estate agent and a previously licensed lender i have to say i never liked rocket mortgage by quicken loans at first it was too fragmented for me it seemed like every week you were dealing with a different lender a different person at the company that was helping you get that loan done and to me as an agent that was always annoying but what i found as an agent is that dang you know when they get it done they're pretty fast and they charged like nothing their fees were so low and so it made sense why a lot of clients were flocking to rocket mortgage and they advertised like crazy now when rock and mortgage finally released their s1 which is kind of their proposal to the world please invest in our company i read this and i finally realized why this is a company where because as an agent it always felt like i was talking to another person at the company i never really valued them highly but now as an investor i look at the other side of the coin and i'm like wait a minute the industry average loans closed per month is 2.3 that means an average person in the lending industry closes 2.3 loans per month well rocket mortgage closes about 8.3 loans per month per team member this means the team members are like a factory line it's like an assembly line everybody's putting in their piece and checking off their boxes and boom these loans get done faster and cheaper and they get more done faster which more done faster is money in the bag now i'm not sure exactly how they came up with that 2.3 average for the industry but the point is these folks are like an assembly line and the bottom line is these companies are selling these loans to fannie mae and freddie mac and fannie mae and freddie mac they will buy the loans as long as the boxes are checked we can have whatever story we want but if the boxes aren't checked right fannie and freddie won't buy them well this company is mastering checking the boxes rocket mortgage tries to streamline this process for most most borrowers excuse me with their process also they've got an app that makes it really easy to sync your assets and your bank statements which streamlines providing information it streamlines credit reporting and it really makes all of these these data points so much easier for them to collect which makes the whole loan process much easier and more desirable for people so the bottom line is like going through a loan stuck sometimes now because of all of these connections don't kid yourself either this company markets to its customers like crazy because they can they know everything about you they retain about 63 percent of their customers on purchases and i bet there are just a lot of agents who are trying to grind away at that and they get about 76 retention on their refinances this is really really good they're also finding that 75 percent of people who are using their app to get a loan the rocket mortgage app are millennials and first-time home buyers a demographic that they think is primed for growth in real estate over the next decades also the biggest players in the mortgage market make up 17 percent of all mortgages rocket mortgage takes nine percent of the total that's more than half of the biggest five players combined that makes rocket mortgage a big force to be reckoned with now one of the problems with the company is they're very subject to interest rates going up and down they do these things called adjustments to their servicing rights called msr and that's really complicated basically as interest rates go down they recognize more assets and revenues as interest rates go up they write off some of their assets and therefore they show some losses when interest rates go up this is really important because it also makes our company very predictable in terms of when we're going to see those adjustments up or down based on interest rates don't worry so much about that here's what i like to look at this company is on track to make seven billion dollars in net earnings which is just like an amazing number especially with how low cost they are they're on track to make that earnings figure and if they do then this is a company that trades at 40 times earnings so we're looking at the forward-looking data right for a company that more than doubled its revenues in 2019 this is not bad excellent growth millennial penetration low bankruptcy risk i've invested about seventy thousand dollars into rock and mortgage and i'll probably invest more now let's get to stock number two lemonade yes when life gives you lemons buy insurance yes there is an insurance company called lemonade and it has crazy growth potential but sells at an epic premium and if you have not yet tried this yet here's how you can find out why it sells so expensively go to lemonade.com and get a quote for insurance pick a state that works they only give or provide insurance in about 27 states this is an insurance company that works without brokers so there's nobody for you to talk to other than a chat bot i'm sure if you really need somebody there's somebody to talk talk to but they deal with claims and pricing your insurance policy through algorithms and chat bots and by collecting all of this extra data on you they're able to evaluate how risky you are and a lot of that information ordinarily gets lost through traditional broker services now i personally haven't been able to game the system to get it to give me different prices but it is very valuable for an insurance company to collect this kind of data so they know how to protect themselves from their risk if somebody's more risky than another person then maybe they can offload that person's risk with something called reinsurance see here's how insurance works and the insurance industry works an insurance company issues you a policy to you and you pay for it this company for example happens to target millennials and they make it very easy to get insurance get quotes add features that you didn't even know you needed without talking to a human ah it's like overwhelming but it's so cool just go to lemonade.com and try it and none of this is sponsored i just want to share this very interesting company with you i love the service but here's what they do behind the scenes if they make a hundred dollars or they receive a hundred dollars of insurance premium from you they're going to take out a policy called a reinsurance policy and they're going to reinsure 75 percent of that value that means they're only keeping 25 percent of the risk about 25 dollars worth of risk but they're going to pocket a referral fee of 25 for doing so that means they make an extra 18.75 on that 100 so lemonade has 25 percent of the risk but actually has 43.75 in their pocket that gives them an opportunity to make more money and advertise more and grow this company to the demise of the traditional insurance companies this company's goal is to get insurance down to a science where they keep the amount of their revenue as profit steady every single quarter as a percentage of how many policies they have now this part seems a bit odd because what they do is if their revenue is going to be higher they'll actually give away the extra to charity and they do that for brand value to show their customers how great of a company they are if revenue is below they'll probably carry those losses forward and donate less in future quarters or years this is supposed to make their earnings very stable and really turns them into a pure growth company this company spends a dollar on advertising they bring in about two dollars and after two years new customers pay for themselves the company also expects to lose less than 10 of their customer base because the massive brand loyalty and the charity nature of this company now everything about this company sounds great but when it comes to the stock we've got a couple problems first they've got massive share dilution coming in january of 2021.
this means you have to be careful because they're going to be a flood of new shares coming in think nicola style volatility however we don't know how much the stock is going to run up between now and then and then how much is it going to fall so for example if it's say at 70 today is it going to run up to 140 and then fall to 100 so it's still higher than where it is today or is it going to fall below today's pricing nobody knows because it's still six months out nicola had a lot of a shorter term window it was only a 45 day window that's why you saw this boom crash and we called that we saw that coming i made videos telling you nicola is going to crash because of the shared dilution coming and that's exactly what happened however lemonade unlike nicola is actually a working company and actually selling a product and for me they're going to be a piece of my portfolio i have about 150 to 200 000 in lemonade currently i'm not planning on adding too much more because i'm putting more money into rocket mortgage and company number three company number three is purple it is a mattress and pillow company that makes buying mattresses and pillows ridiculously easy i don't know that there's much to that but they do have some pretty crazy marketing you've probably seen their viral ads with their eggs squishing and like the glass falling on the mattresses and you just look up pillow purple pillow advertising it's crazy or go to their website purple.com and you'll see a lack of egg squashing that's because the eggs never seem to break anyway the easiest thing that i recommend for you to do with this company is just order one of their pillows and see if you like it i like them although i've only experimented with one of their pillows and i'm waiting for a second one that i think might be a better fit for me so i can really decide if i want to go full steam ahead on this company right now i've got about forty thousand dollars riding on this company this company just went profitable and it grew 68 in the first quarter of this year compared to last year if they keep up this pace and grow at just 50 this year and next they could hit a billion dollars in revenues by the end of 2021.
now that's insane it might end up taking a little bit longer than the end of 2021 i mean they just did 122 million in one quarter at the beginning of 2020 here that that works out to an annual rate of about 480 million in revenues so one billion is not too far-fetched but if they reach one billion in revenues that should leave them with an earnings of about four to five dollars per share with those earnings on a company that's selling for 23.86 per share this company could easily be selling for 80 to 100 per share in the next two years if they keep their sales up however there's a big risk with this company because it's a pillow and mattress company if people start hating this company or their product starts sucking or they saturate the market and nobody might want them anymore and if the product's so good people might not have a reason to come back and keep buying more pillows and mattresses i don't know we'll see i'm optimistic i've invested about 40 000 into purple i plan to invest more uh in purple and rocket mortgage i'm holding more steady on pallet i'm sorry i'm holding more steady on lemonade right now but that does bring up the next company and i already said it peloton so those are my opinions on purple let's get into number four peloton peloton is currently trading for about 67.91 peloton is a company that i'm personally very excited about but i am worried that it could be a fad and that would be very bad hey that rhymes i personally have a peloton bike but i do find that i spend more time on my walking treadmill than i do my peloton bike because i can work on my computer the quality of the bike is amazing but the company is currently losing money interestingly though their next earning cycle will end well their next earnings release will be on september 10th now to me this is going to be a very interesting release and here's why usually about fifty percent of the company's revenues go to making the bike then another fifty percent go to commissions for sales people in malls to sell the bike however a lot of these commissions aren't happening right now because a lot of the bikes are being sold online because the company basically went viral during the pandemic and nobody's going to malls so rather than selling these bikes through expensive channels like using commission sales people in malls they can sell them online thanks to viral pandemic advertising now how long is that going to sustain itself we don't know but i think this means we could see a banger of an earnings report next time peloton releases their earnings on september 10th which is my dad's birthday and if this company can grow without commissions then the profit per bike sale for this company is going to go through the roof it also helps them insulate themselves against other bike competitors which most aren't even keeping up with peloton's sales numbers for this reason i'm big on peloton like lemonade i have somewhere between 170 to a little over 200 000 in this company i'm not adding to my position to lemonade and peloton right now instead i am adding to rocky mortgage and purple as i did mention in the last segment now here's another one though and i'm slowly considering adding back into okay all right number five dave and busters now listen to this okay before you skip the second section listen to this many of you know that i'm gung-ho about dave and busters i made a full detailed breakdown of their company in june and i got spanked by the second wave or the continuation of the first wave i don't care what it is i got spanked i bought the company at 16 to 19 per share it's now about 13.59 per share oh not great here's the quick and dirty on what i think about dave and busters right now chuck e cheese went bankrupt if chuck e cheese is forced to close its stores guess who's going to fill the void dave and busters now chuck e cheese might come back but if it takes multiple years for chuck e cheese to come back dave and busters is going to saturate the market and chuck e cheese is going to get squeezed out dave buster's also has smaller smaller store models that are easier to open quicker to open and are much more profitable than the bigger stores this pandemic could be a beautiful opportunity for dave and busters as long as they don't go busters heck if dave and buster survives guess what's great malls are going to be desperate to attract customers and guess what dave busters does it attracts people to destinations whether they're plazas or malls dave and busters could easily move into every single mall in this country as a way to get malls to give dave and buster's discounted rent to get dave buster's coming in which is a huge opportunity for dave and busters and it's a great boon for malls to actually lure people to the mall you want to go to dave and buster's you got to go to the mall it would be a way to breathe life into an industry that's dying the mall industry now i also hear that dave and busters is casting people for a tv commercial which might be them blowing their budget their marketing budget before they go bankrupt or they don't plan on going bankrupt i don't know dave and busters like i said could end up bankrupt but if it survives which i think it will you've got a great company here that could 4x probably 3x in value you've got blackrock jeffries and vanguard backing over 40 percent of the shares held by this company and i think dave and buster's because of that not only has staying power but it has really the ability to do very well once we go back to normal especially if we get a vaccine before they go bankrupt all right i got the dave buster's part out okay i really hope they don't go busters anyway let's now talk about redfin redfin i first advocated buying redfin back in march when i bought this stock for about ten dollars per share it has since over 4.5 x in value i love this company but i also love to hate them because i'm a real estate agent and they want to put me out of business i think they are going to be a massive millennial disrupter in real estate and one of the big reasons i'm investing in them is because the bigger they get the harder it will be for the average real estate agent and they're growing fast now i still encourage people to be real estate agents because there's plenty of money to be made out there and hey it's just a company to hedge against you know if you're a real estate agent buy some redfin stock okay that's that's always what i've thought real estate agent by reference anyway redfin was hurting during the pandemic but they survived very well and their losses actually shrunk real estate did very well during the pandemic but redfin did shut down for quite a period of time and they started laying people off however because of this and sort of years of losses they haven't been profitable yet they're going to have some sweet tax advantages going forward when this company shows its first 10 million profit per quarter and we annualize that to about 40 million dollars of profit in the future we're looking forward that'll be about 40 cents of earnings per share which means that today this company is trading for about 112 times future earnings which is insane it's very high i'm not adding to my redfin position right now like when redfin fell to 36 last week i added to redfin and i told all my course members i was buying redfin because i thought it was oversold well here's the scoop redfin has less risk than purple purple is more risky the mattress company right it's more risky than redfin redfin has less risk than rocket mortgage actually redfin competes with rocket mortgage because redfin just released a lending division and they just completed their first refinances redfen's also not going to be a potential fad like peloton and this definitely isn't anywhere near as risky as dave and buster's now along with these i'm of course still buying my favorite stocks like tesla apple and amazon but these are my top top picks excuse me and the reasons i love them so thank you so much for watching this good luck i hope all of these stocks skyrocket past 100 in the next few years and beyond hey the sooner after this video or the sooner after i post this video the better because it'll make me feel very special but no guarantees that that's going to happen they could all literally half in value before any of this stuff comes true and dave and us busters could go bust i appreciate you watching if you found this video helpful please consider sharing it and folks until next time you
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