저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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미 재무장관 므누신의 협상 타임라인 발표 이후 부양책 통과가 다음 주로 지연됐지만, 1200달러 수표와 주 600달러 실업수당 연장에는 합의 기운이 보인다고 주장. 공화당 내부 분열과 맥코넬의 입장 변화를 민주당의 협상 레버리지로 해석하며, 주정부 지원금과 임대 지원이 쟁점으로 남았다고 봄. 코로나 재봉쇄는 없을 것이며 백신은 연말~내년 초 기대.
다듬은 글
hey folks, are you holding onto your chair for this one? We've got a lot of updates on things that just happened today, and you'd better be holding on to your chat today, especially since we have timing updates not only on when this package is going to get passed but on checks and more. Let's get right into this. It is late on August 4th. Hey everyone, Meet Kevin here, let's get into this.
All right, listen to this quote. This is from Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and I encourage you to hold your chair for this one. Quote: "We are pleased to report that although we still have a lot of open issues, I just want to be very clear, we're not at the point of being close to a deal, but we did try to agree to a set timeline that we're going to try to reach an overall agreement on, if we can get one, by the end of the week, so that legislation could be passed by next week."
Dude, what the f? First of all, that sounds like an attorney wrote it, to basically mean you literally said nothing. On one hand, with all those asterisks you had in that quote, basically. But what the heck? Do you mean to tell me that after two weeks of negotiating, really hard negotiating, that happened on Saturday, and it was so exhausting, you came in on a weekend to negotiate, and what Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has to report to us is that we just extended negotiations another week? I'm about to lose it. This is literally like the ref having a favorite baseball team, and all of a sudden he realizes it's the ninth inning, the bases are loaded, and his favorite team is about to lose, so he goes up in front of everybody and goes, "Hey, I actually miscounted, we're on the eighth inning." And everybody just freaks out, like, come on, pitch the ball and finish the game. I just want to be done. I want to be done making these videos. I mean, I'm not, but I want to be. And tomorrow I'm going to do a live stream, and we're going to do a little bit of a giveaway, a stimulus giveaway, because I'm so sick of this Congress can't do it. So we'll have a little party tomorrow morning.
Anyway, let's take a moment here and look at the calendar and try to understand what things look like if things get passed by next week. Then let's get into some other updates that came out from the White House and Mitch McConnell, which are also quite interesting. I think Mitch McConnell is losing it, literally. You'll enjoy that. But let's look at the calendar first. This is a calendar of August. You didn't really need me to tell you that. Obviously today is the fourth, and the expectation was that we were supposed to have something passed here on the 7th, and that no longer appears likely. Instead, it now appears much more likely that we're actually going to see some sort of deal, like a verbal deal, hopefully some kind of written deal by the 7th. Then they're going to take the 10th through the 14th to actually pass something. So maybe we'll see one chamber vote on something, then another chamber vote, then some counteroffers, and maybe by Friday the 14th Donald Trump might be able to sign something.
If this happens, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has stated he could get 50 million checks out within a week. Presumably this is through direct deposit, that's going to be the fastest way to get these. You're probably going to use those same 2018 tax returns if you haven't filed your 2019 yet, or you're checking to see if you qualify. But here we might be looking at as early as August 21st for some stimulus checks, if we end up getting these approved in this next deal.
The good news is it does look like there is consensus right now around the $1,200 and $500. We're not sure yet whether the HEROES Act is going to be the one that pushes through, or the HEELS Act. So maybe a beefed-up HEELS Act, a watered-down HEROES Act, or some kind of version in between. We'll see.
On unemployment, Mitch McConnell is falling apart. Listen to this. The New York Times reported that Mitch McConnell has quote "signaled that he might be willing to reverse course and accept the extension of the $600 per week jobless aid payments that many in his party oppose, if it would yield a compromise." This came after the lunch today. He even said it's not going to produce a kumbaya moment like we had in March or April, where everybody voted. "But the American people in the end need help," McConnell said. McConnell went on to say, "And whatever this thing settles between the President of the United States and his team, who have to sign it into law, and the Democrats, not insignificant minority in the Senate and majority in the House," that was really wordy, I'm sorry, that's his quote. "It's something I'm prepared to support, even if I have problems with some parts of it." Holy smokes. This is the same Mitch McConnell who, like six weeks ago, was saying we're not passing anything unless it comes out of my office, we're not doing $600, we're not paying people more to stay home. Whoa. This is a massive, massive U-turn.
So we just got a delayed timeframe, but at the same time we also got really good news, that Mitch McConnell is basically throwing in the towel. When he talks about this "not so insignificant minority in the Senate," what he's actually trying to say is he has about 51 or 52 Republicans in the Senate who are all kind of trying to work together but are all on different pages. You have Republicans who are like, we're not doing anything. You have some Republicans who are like, one trillion is too much. Then you've got some who are like, one trillion is good. Then you've got some who are like, it should be more than a trillion. The Republican Party in the Senate, and this is not a diss on the Republican Party, it is what it is, is appearing like a complete disaster right now. Sorry, I keep making these references to the Vikings, but it makes sense. Think of it kind of like a shield wall of Vikings, one unified army of these Democrats, fighting a larger army, but the larger army is all discombobulated. The coordinated smaller group can win sometimes in these cases, and I think that's actually what we're seeing here, which is kind of crazy. And this actually gives Democrats a crazy edge, like it or not. Again, I never want to pick sides, I try to be as neutral as possible. I know in the comments everybody's always guessing, "Oh, Kevin's a..." But the point is, the people in power are the ones who get screwed when the people get screwed. The leaders in power lose when the people get hurt. So if stimulus doesn't get passed, guess who gets the blame? It's Republicans, because they're in power. They control the Senate and they control the presidency. If a bill doesn't pass and a negotiation doesn't happen, they're the ones who technically get the blame. Democrats realize that, and they're basically laughing all the way to the bank, going, "Give us what we want, give us what we want." It's not a problem, obviously, it is their problem, right? Nobody wants the people to be hurt. But Democrats are vying for more for the American people, and they're using this leverage to beat up Republicans. And here's the thing: it's working. It's working so well that Mitch McConnell is falling apart. It's working so well that even the White House is starting to back down, and I'm not kidding about that either.
The White House is now backing down off the idea of signing an executive order to eliminate payroll taxes. Trump told reporters today at the White House that progress is being made, and quote, "I may not have to sign an executive order because progress is being made." He further said, "We want to take care of the eviction problem. People are being evicted unfairly, it's not their fault, it's China's fault," and of course blamed Democrats as well for trying to bail out blue states, but walked back the idea that he would act without Democrats. So you're really starting to see Democrats arm-wrestling here, actually working, again, like it or not.
We know that Democrats want a bigger package. They want the HEROES Act. They're tired of dealing with small packages. They want a big package. Sorry, I had to do that. At the same time, the National Multifamily Housing Council said that in June, nearly 95.6 percent of renters made their rent payments, which was about as many renters as who made their rent payments last year. What's crazy about that is, wait a minute, we're in the midst of a pandemic, what do you mean tenants are making the same payments they were last year? It's because of all of the stimulus that was in effect. This is another thing reiterating what Democrats want.
In fact, just to quickly break down where the negotiations stand right now, let's look at a very simplified flow chart. We seem to have consensus on the $1,200 stimulus checks, which right now could potentially, even with the delay, happen as soon as August 21st. On top of that, it actually looks like we're getting more support now for the $600 per week unemployment extension. This is huge. In every real estate video that I've been making, I've been very, very concerned about this unemployment boost. But it's not just that. Yes, there's the eviction thing, but Democrats are pushing for what's called housing and rental assistance, basically money, because if you have an eviction ban, you're really just kicking the can down the road. This is being negotiated right now. This is another big demand Democrats have with Republicans. They're all on board with an eviction ban, but Democrats are saying, "Hey, an eviction ban is one thing, but we actually have to help people out of this situation too. You can't just kick the can down the road for six months."
And obviously the big stopping point in these negotiations, and it continues to be this, is state and local government funding. There is a massive distaste among Republicans for, as they put it, bailing out Democratic blue states. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says "we're not doing anything close to 3.4 trillion dollars," which he calls ridiculous. But given Democrats exercising all the leverage they are, what's it going to be, Stevie, 3.3? I'm really curious to see how this goes. This is actually getting a little bit juicy now, because again, no matter what side you're on, it's kind of like the underdog is starting to pull some punches here, and it's turning into a good fight. As much as I'm pissed off that we're not actually seeing "give us the freaking bill already and pass it, will ya," this is actually becoming very fascinating. But unfortunately, fascinating doesn't pay the bills, so I am still pissed that we don't have something passed. And again, I want to take a vacation. I want to rent an RV and just be gone for a month, because I've made enough videos.
Okay, in the meantime, Donald Trump did argue tonight with Lou Dobbs that Democrats are holding firm on money for state and local governments, and lamented that no bailouts were coming. Although we'll see if Donald Trump ends up having to fold on that as well, because of the negotiation I just described. It'll be very interesting to see.
Anyway, on COVID, Donald Trump says he will not re-close down the economy, despite some people suggesting that we should just close down again for three to four weeks to kill this virus. The governor of Mississippi, a Republican, is also now mandating masks in public and retail spaces, and this is happening statewide starting on Tuesday. Further, the Novavax vaccine is currently in a Phase 1 trial and it's showing promising results. This adds to the many other vaccines that we already have in Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials. Remember, right now we're not hoping for a vaccine sooner than the end of the year, and there are hopes that we could get one as soon as the end of the year, hopefully by the beginning of next year. But the World Health Organization is worried that even if we get a vaccine, we don't know how long that vaccine will actually be effective.
Wow, a lot of news today. If you like this information, sign up for the YouTube course, pre-sell.
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