저자: CathieWood—진행자WealthSupremacy채널 · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 연준이 긴축 실수를 하고 있어 곧 방향을 바꿀 것이며, 이후 성장주 반등과 비트코인 상승이 올 것으로 본다. 거시·금리: 캐시 우드는 연준이 둔화하는 경제에 긴축하고 있다고 보며, 시장이 인플레이션 둔화를 인식하면 연준이 물러설 것이라고 주장한다. 10년물 금리는 3.2%에서 2.8% 부근으로 떨어졌고, 2022년 말까지 약 2%로 내려갈 수 있다고 본다. 주식 스타일: 최근 1년은 경기민감주·가치주 장세였으나 성장주로 순환매가 올 것이며, 알고리즘 영향으로 빠르게 일어날 수 있다고 본다. 매매 관점에서는 성장·혁신주를 지금 매수하라는 메시지가 담겨 있다. 주거·인플레이션: 주택 판매 감소와 주택 착공 정체를 근거로 임대료 조정이 올 것이며, 서비스 인플레이션은 2023년에 둔화할 것이라는 전망이 제시된다. 비트코인·가상자산: 비트코인은 인플레이션 헤지이며, 은행에서 디파이(DeFi)로 대출·예금 자금이 이동하고 있다고 주장한다. 장기 보유자 비중이 높아 변동성은 있어도 장기 관점이 유효하다고 본다. 단기 반등 여부와 2022년 말 신고점 도달 여부에 대한 시청자 의견을 묻는다. 출연자 전망: 명시적 가격 목표는 제시되지 않았다. 비트코인 10만 달러 도달 가능성은 전문가 예측으로만 언급되고 진행자는 회의적 입장을 보인다. 리스크: 디플레이션성 충격으로 레버리지가 큰 기업이 타격을 받을 수 있다는 점과, 규제 불확실성으로 기관 투자자가 관망 중이라는 점이 언급된다.
다듬은 글
time not timing and we have a chart now if you if you look if you held stocks instead of trading around them over time you would have done much better than trying to time the global crypto market cap has finally recovered and reached 1.27 trillion dollars after witnessing another round of crash in the last few days some financial experts are predicting that bitcoin could reach 100 000 by the end of 2022 but is this realistic or just hype only time will tell but for now the price of bitcoin has continued to surge with the cryptocurrency reaching above 30 000 on monday morning ethereum the second biggest cryptocurrency also saw its value rise by more than five percent in today's video i'm going to share kathy wood's point of view for the current market and where it could go in the future so subscribe to my channel wealth supremacy for more videos like this now let's dive into the video if you're a bitcoin advocate and we are as you know well many people hold bitcoin as an inflation head if we're right and deflation does happen uh all of those companies who did not invest enough in innovation but leveraged up to deliver short-term profits they manufactured earnings with lower share counts and they paid dividends uh they are they're going to be in harm's way they'll have to in order to service their debt they'll have to lower prices uh so that's a part of the deflationary undertow we see out there as well retail investors have a large say in crypto and institutional investors have been waiting on the sidelines to see how regulations develop before entering the market but is it right to just sit in the sideline or is it a time to enter the market the stock market is discounts the future the stock market is is looking very carefully at these numbers to discern trends out there and as soon as the stock market understands that inflation is going to unravel and that the fed is actually going to relent uh because they are making a mistake here and i really do believe they are now making a mistake tightening into the teeth of what seems to be a very significant slowdown and inventory bulge in the economy i think that the equity market is going to take off again but what we'll see first is a a rotation and you know on certain days we're seeing it but the the last year has been all about cyclicals and value stocks there will be a rotation back to growth stocks because if nancy's right if we're right growth is going to become very scarce out there and so that true growth companies with strong revenue growth in the 20 plus range to the extent uh there are companies like that out there they will be rewarded handsomely as the market shifts away from value back to growth and and it can happen very quickly because algorithms are also trained to to uh to behave this way last year it was straight up and to the right for cyclicals and value and the momentum carried them probably too far given what's happening with inventories and the same can happen in the other other direction so we're seeing that instead of tightening into a growing and dynamic economy the fed is tightening into a slowing economy kathy woods strongly believes that the fed is making a big mistake right now as soon as the stock market unravels and when the fed will finally realize its mistake kathy wood believes that equities will take off again value stocks are currently attractive to investors because they offer stability and predictability in uncertain times however this attractiveness is not likely to last long as the market is expected to rebound quickly this will send value stocks tumbling and growth stocks soaring investors should capitalize on this rotation by investing in growth innovative stocks and cryptos right now before they become too expensive still you need to study yourself before investing in any asset i mean they have already started rising up so it's a good time to invest in my opinion if i talk about crypto i believe that bitcoin will lead the next rally once the fed flinches many people think monetary policies around the world are have been unhinged especially since 0809 and they're seeing extreme increases in the monetary base various monetary bases around the world so bitcoin is a hedge against inflation now that will turn into inflation if the reserves on central bank balance sheets which are the kindling for inflation if they're lit and that means if bank loans go crazy to the upside uh we're seeing a share shift when it comes to loans into d5 so uh you know there's a big i think the banks have a big problem they're losing talent to crypto so they're having to raise wages to to attract talent and they're they're losing business to d5 uh lending and saving a lot of it is taking place in defy right now according to kathy wood bitcoin is a hedge against inflation she also pointed out that you can see a big shift from banks to defy when it comes to lending and saving similarly more and more people are shifting to crypto you see the defy crypto market rose up by 38.31 and 55.52 billion dollar market cap at the beginning of this week there's a good future for the crypto world and in no time we will again see a crypto bull market not too soon but still soon enough the reason a lot of people think uh core cpi will be sticky is uh rents because housing prices have gone up so much rents have gone up so much i think what's going to go what's going on on the good side is going to overwhelm what's going on on the rent side and uh we're even seeing signs in some places that the consumer just can't pay up for these rents anymore you're seeing a lot more mobility and i have a feeling even rents are going to start uh adjusting oh we i agree with you uh kathy that you are already seeing uh some weakness in housing activity how sales are down housing starts are now flat to down housing gets hit first when you see it back up in interest rates um shelter uh service prices have already been accelerating we think they go up maybe just a little bit more and then actually slow as we go into 2023 so we think the inflation outlook for 2023 in part because then you start to see some service lower service inflation could will be even lower than it is uh in 2020 and 2020 uh 2022.
so this is one of the charts uh if this plays out the way that you forecast it here nancy and i i i think it will um this is why the fed will uh will relent first they'll relent in terms of their rhetoric you'll hear them talk well maybe we don't have to go up as much but my guess is they will stop their tightening moves at some point this year altogether housing prices have also gone up people with not enough income find it really hard to pay up the rents kathy wood has commented that rent will start to adjust soon she also discussed the bond market with nancy let's hear them out you have had an increase in bond yields around the world but the bond market has bond yields have actually ticked down uh a little bit i think the 10 year was at 315 320 at one point and now you're back below three um and so we do think uh bon the bond market may be figuring this out we'll we'll see um but uh and and we would have the ten-year yield actually moving back down towards two percent uh by the end of uh by the end of this uh by the end of this year yeah and i uh everyone's been watching the 10-year treasury uh bond yield like like hawks and those in the first camp were sure that it was going to break the tr downtrend that's been in place uh really if you go you you have to go back to 1981 to see the beginning of the downtrend the the treasury bond yield peaked at around 15 percent back then uh and it's been the trend has been down uh i think those expecting a breakout uh are are being disappointed as we speak and i'm surprised that the stock market isn't picking up more on this uh because uh interest rates uh the long-term treasury uh yield this one went to 320 and now has backed down to 280 so that that's 40 basis points in uh maybe two weeks which is a very rapid move so the bond market and remember this is a 10-year treasury yield and i always like to think of it in terms of okay this is what the bond market thinks nominal gdp will be doing for the next 10 years give or take so three percent or 2.8 percent nominal gdp growth over the next 10 years um well that must mean uh one of two things either growth is disappointing or inflation's disappointing or both or if you're in our world in the disruptive innovation world we think unit growth measured correctly is going to surprise hugely on the high side of expectations and that uh inflation is going to uh is going to turn down and we would not be surprised over time to see it go negative once more so guys the crypto market has been on a tear lately but it looks like bitcoin is looking to stage a relief rally and some technical indicators and analysis are also suggesting that it might be the cryptocurrency has seen a meteoric rise following monday this week and doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon general consensus appears to be that there will be a relief rally so what do you believe bitcoin will lead to another 50 drop or continue having a relief rally also be sure to like and share this video it's a real encouragement for me from you guys so getting ahead with the video while some investors remain cautious about investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies others see it as a way to ensure potential high returns in the long term now let's hear what kathy wood believes in if you look at the activity within bitcoin you'll see the percentage of long-term holders is roughly 70 so 13 and a half million bitcoin out of the 19 out there five-year investment time horizon where the closest you'll find to a venture capital fund in the public equity markets there is volatility but truth will win out so keep your eye on the prize kathy wood is definitely in the long term camp so which camp are you in long-term investor or short-term trader and do you believe bitcoin will start the relief rally do you think it will reach its next all-time high by the end of 2022 let me know your thoughts in the comments section below for more updates on the latest market news and trends be sure to hit that bell icon and subscribe to my channel that's it for today see you guys in the next video you
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