저자: Kevin · 외국인
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유동성 위기·인플레이션 재점화 우려는 근거가 약하다고 주장. 역레포 잔고 약 2.1~2.2조달러로 QT 충격 완충, 5년 기대인플레 약 2.14%로 안정, 시장은 6월 금리 인상 확률 약 56%로 반영. 경기침체 우려도 독일 DAX 사례로 과장됐다고 봄. 6월 1일 강의 가격 인상 홍보 포함. 중기적으로 시장 포지션 쏠림(mispositioning) 위험을 경고.
다듬은 글
next price increase for the courses is June 1 11 59 PM check the link down below real estate investing Stock Investing and of course making more money as an employee or entrepreneur with those AI lectures coming out soon to catch you up to speed with everything you need to know about how to be more productive and make more money using artificial intelligence I just can't take it anymore it seems like non-stop I don't know correct me if I'm wrong here okay but it just seems like for the last three weeks all the news stations could talk about every single day every single day is it I feel like we've been around the block long enough to know that the debt ceiling was going to get passed we said this with yeah people ask me about evidence seems like we're getting closer to default this time or or I mean even course members are asking me and I get it because it's all over the news it's just constant God daily and I'm like we're raising the debt ceiling it's going to happen it's going to be dramatic but it's going to happen people are like well what odds would you assign to it come on and I'm like fine 99.9 chance it's gonna get raised but there's just gonna be a lot of drama between now and then and it's just so exhausting because I think the last three weeks every single time you turn on the news whether it's fox or CNN or at CNBC or it's Bloomberg it's non-stop it's just dancing dancing the United States is never defaulted it's your first time in G5 we're going to do a Great Depression this could be so much joblessness and the FED can't save us and it's the same crap over and over again honestly I think I I've become convinced that the mainstream media is driven by uh nothing other than okay what is the next big fear Catalyst and okay fair like it to some extent especially if we're trading we want to know what the next fear catalysts are and we can go through some of those fear catalysts right now uh but really the the exhausting nature of just this incessant fear over nothing drives me nuts uh I'm a big fan of like real catalysts like give me some actual real fear uh and for me uh I actually agree with this uh this survey that was done over the weekend over okay what are the realistic next levels or or rather the next fear Catalyst that we should actually care about like what are things we should care about uh and the biggest response uh in the survey came from well a potential reignition and this is a reasonable one of inflation and I thought okay well finally like this this is actually like a reasonable point of view uh because we don't nobody really expects that the next fear catalyst is is going to be the actual debt ceiling because at this point so 41 of respondents were convinced uh that the next fear catalyst is inflation uh and uh maybe not necessarily that we would end up getting a reignition of inflation but that 41 of people believe the biggest worry the market should have is inflation and and that's fair because quite frankly if we do get a reignition of inflation then we do actually have problems to worry about now we've got more to fall in the stock market because it's rallied more uh we have the potential risk of being Paul volckerd we have the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and by far I I agree that probably the biggest risk to markets going forward is inflation now that's remarkable because there really is a there's really scant evidence of reigniting inflation natural gas prices in Europe for example are at the lowest level they've been since uh right before the invasion of Ukraine it's insanely low uh you've got uh shorts piling up on OPEC uh well basically on oil uh and opec's like you better not start shorting because we're gonna cut production meanwhile they're talking about cutting production but so far we haven't gotten an announcement on cutting production so in other words they're just trying to like manipulate the market of course that's that's just what they do uh so uh you've got you've got that many people worry about inflation uh and then the next big fear is is was recession and this idea with recession is that okay well all right fine but here's the thing Kevin liquidity is going to kill the market that was the next big fear Catalyst that a lot of people were driving and this idea is okay well here's what's going to happen the treasury Department is going to have to reissue uh bonds as they kind of run off and then the markets might have to absorb these uh and and we're going to see all of this happening at the same time as you see quantitative tightening and and that's just gonna suck all this money out of the economy and then the economy is going to collapse this this is sort of the second like bear thesis so one bear thesis is okay well inflation and then the second bare thesis is ship and liquidity crunch what's crazy is first of all nobody really knows what's actually going to happen but the odds are uh things are probably not going to be as bad as feared and a lot of uh the the sort of more moderate people who are just trying to understand the economy rather than like push either a bull or bear narrative a lot of folks are looking at the reverse repo facility and saying this is probably the best speed Governor we have to suggest that even in a quantitative tightening scenario we don't necessarily have to be that horribly worried about what's going to end up happening with liquidity because quite frankly we've got plenty of it this right here on screen is the amount of money sitting in the reverse repo facility now now this gets a little confusing usually when I mention this I feel like people shut down and I think there's a very easy way to explain playing this and think about it like this okay if if you were a bank let's say you're a bank and you're responsible for holding on to one million dollars let's just say uh and you have a choice you could take that million dollars and you could lock it up into uh six month or one year or five year or ten year treasury notes and you could lock that money up and then you could earn let's say four percent on that money but you have a lock up right this is your choice you earn four percent maybe you even earn five percent on your money but you have to lock up your cash okay remember you're the banker now well what could what risk could that pose if you lock up some of your cash as as a banker well we just all learned that in the last two months you could suffer a bank run and then go bankrupt right uh interesting where the phrases came from so then you have this other option like that if I have five million dollars you could just take that money and what if I told you this instead of locking it up for six months plus you could lock it up overnight oh well how much are you going to pay me to lock it up overnight instead of longer term what if I told you you could actually earn the Fed rate of five percent obviously on a banker's year divided by 360 days so you're just going to earn one 360th of five percent but you'll earn it every single night which is the same as really holding treasuries because you're also earning interest essentially your accruing interest on a daily basis uh so where would you rather put the van million dollars well obviously if you're a banker to some extent you're having some money in treasuries because they all do uh but to the extent that you're allowed to because there's a limit here you're gonna put as much freaking money as you can right here in this overnight facility and this overnight facility is this it's the reverse repo facility and that reverse repo facility is sitting here with lots of money over 2.1 nearly 2.2 trillion dollars that's a lot of money and so what I'm finding is that the more neutral individuals who aren't trying to push a bear narrative or a bull narrative they're saying look yes we are going to go through a massive phase of quantitative tightening but you have what you have to consider is the Federal Reserve is just allowing treasury bills and bonds to expire at the rate of 80 billion dollars per month now itself during the beginning during this first year and two months of quantitative tightening that we've already gone through because this started in March of 2022.
we've already been at this now for 14 months it's basically stayed stable which is insane because a lot of people look at this as basically a parachute and they say okay well if you could take 2.1 uh and divide it by 80 billion dollars per month well how many months do you have you have two years you have about 26 months of money sitting right there so in other words if all of the money the Federal Reserve tightened on a monthly basis simply LED Banks to basically replenish those treasuries as and that's going to happen as rates start falling uh now all of a sudden you could actually delay the effects of quantitative tightening for another two years which is insane but again generally to make this happen you're going to start seeing interest rates come down this is why because now you're seeing that overnight rate go down there's more of an incentive on treasuries long and short of it there's this massive buffer against this liquidity fear that people keep talking about but I do find it very interesting because there is this there's this almost desperation I feel like amongst uh the bear narrative right now to find another reason why this economy has to collapse and the reality is there isn't a good one so now I'm seeing this constant talk about but maybe the debt ceiling isn't the issue but it's it's liquidity like okay all right here we go what's that what's the next argument going to be and it's falling I'm not here to be permeable you know somebody left me a comment the other day that easy for you to say you're just a permeable I'm like no I'm the dude in a Hello Kitty Cup who's going to sit here and flip-flop on you immediately and tell you about it immediately when poopy doopy hits the fan and it's time to flip-flop that's it I I I like I'm not here to say I'm 100 perfect with my timing uh I wish I originally sold earlier like January 2022 was great wish I originally sold earlier and maybe I wish I got into the market a little later but I went from being completely out one of the first Finance YouTubers completely out to basically being completely back in uh uh you know before before this sort of Nike Swoosh recovery uh and so the point is obviously facts are going to change and I'm looking every single day trying to study what's the next negative Catalyst and quite frankly the biggest negative Catalyst that I see is China for for people who invested in China uh you know I've regularly said I'm afraid of investing in China because I I don't personally fully understand what's going on in the government there and I'm not going to profess to but I also understand that the consumer is a very different mindset because they need to have a different mindset remember during covid when China got locked down for like three freaking years guess who got the stimulus money it was businesses it wasn't people in China that's why people in China ended up getting somewhere around 1 12 the amount of stimulus money that that we did here in America it's remarkable so uh okay so back to this this bearish uh this idea so inflation which we have very few catalysts for suggesting that it's taking off again uh the the argument that bears like to make when it comes to suggesting okay well we're definitely going to have more inflation is this idea that it's going to be sticky that inflation is just going to stay higher for longer basically uh and the historical context doesn't play well for the Bears here because the Federal Reserve is in a position where they are required to get inflation down ridiculously quickly there's there's there's no mandate that says oh we need to get inflation down to two percent immediately that that doesn't exist instead the Federal Reserve can embark on something known as opportunistic disinflation which is exactly what they did in the early 80s uh through mid 80s through the 90s and the early 2000s as long as inflation expectations remain anchored and after this debt ceiling deal was reached what did we get oh look inflation expectations uh rotating right back down again you can see them here on the Market's expectation of inflation it's the five-year break even and we're at 2.14 we're not that the super lowest level we've been but you could see the downtrend over the last year if you zoom out there you go uh pretty pretty good downtrend we've hit this lower area a few times uh we're hitting some of the lowest levels now this is a really a way of saying inflation expectations have been anchored since September which is phenomenal worst case scenario you see a skyrocketing of inflation expectations here kind of like what you did in February but this was really due to January data coming in pretty hot thanks to potentially a warm winter uh then you've got these year-over-year seasonal adjustments big mess sort of in February in terms of the data but a lot of that ended up being nonsense so yes people are real bad cabin it's not falling as fast as expect that's fine though and that isn't necessarily to suggest that the Federal Reserve has to act in such a way that uh uh you know they just continue their March up uh we could sit here for for longer essentially that's the higher for longer argument now what the market is pricing in right now is a 25 basis point hike uh in uh June with a 56.1 probability so you're basically at a coin toss for a June hike now Jerome Powell has said we are at a sufficiently restrictive level of of interest rates uh Neil keshkari who turned into to one of your Hawks which was crazy because during covid he was super like print preprint uh and anyway so he's become a hawk and he's under this impression like I've been convinced that we could pause in June and maybe hike again in July if we need to anyway Market despite all this is pricing in a 50 chance of a pause here well basically 56 chance of a high uh 44 chance of a pause in June uh by July interestingly the market is pricing in a 22 a chance of two hikes uh and then you really don't get to a uh uh one-third cut one-third hold or one-third you're at 5.25 hold being five uh until January uh sorry that's until uh December and then you can pretty much confirm a cut by January so anything 2023 is relatively uncertain for uh for the market pricing in Cuts uh as of the latest read which is fascinating because that was actually another one of the bear arguments another bear argument was but Kevin as soon as the market starts pricing out these rate cuts that the market has been pricing in well then the Market's going to crash and it's fascinating because once again so far that has not been happening and maybe it is just AI That's driving that may maybe who knows but it's fascinating because if you look at the work the world interest rate probability this is what you're looking at right now you're looking at uh the the peak rate being priced in here for July and you're looking at being above five percent until basically December that's what the market is pricing in right now so all of a sudden all of this oh the first Cuts coming in July or September or whatever all of that has already been priced out of the market and what has happened in the last few weeks the Market's done nothing but go straight up and so it goes to show that interest rates really aren't the biggest driver of fears right now so the biggest drivers of fear are a second wave of inflation followed by a recession uh a fear and this recession fear is is probably more appropriate than even the inflation one just because there are so few indications of inflation skyrocketing and recession one argues that well come Q3 Q4 companies uh and and consumers are going to be in a position where everybody's just magically going to stop spending uh and uh and and we're going to go into an earnings recession and what I find remarkable about this is Nike had its earnings recession Nike was the first company to have its earnings recession in 2022 the chip stocks had their earnings recession and Q3 in Q3 to q1 look at their earnings negative year-over-year earnings uh the the consumer staples are just now beginning their earnings recession you look at Home Depot you look at Lowe's you look at Costco the the earnings recession wave has already been happening for a year now and so this idea oh whoa whoa Kevin we're going to go into an official recession okay maybe that that is a risk factor but then we have to ask ourselves but does that necessarily mean all of a sudden the stock market collapses and the question here is well that depends what is inflation doing see if we go into a recession and inflation is soaring again in expectations of inflation have unanchored we're screwed then we get Paul volcker then I turn into a bear again and I have to flip-flop again but if we are in a uh you know a technical recession much like Germany is right now well then all of a sudden you look and you go okay so Germany is in a technical recession but remember what that actually means and I think when we look at the basic concept of what a recession is it's actually not that scary because think about this for a moment if I told like what would you prefer okay would you would you uh rather grow like this okay or uh would you prefer uh this kind of growth and then a little bit of this and then you continue okay so so obviously this one has substantially more growth and just sort of this example I made here and I'm just being extreme but the point of this is to say that see this right here that could technically be a recession because maybe you've gone negative for two quarters in a row now it's fascinating because your growth is you know what you're like your output is substantially higher than what it was previously and what I think is so interesting is that as Germany is technically into a recession and people like but Kevin if we go into a recession the stock market's going to plummet really okay well let's look at Germany's recession you ready for what Germany's recession looks like there's an index that's kind of like the Dow Jones in Germany it's called the docs it consists of 40 German Blue Chip companies okay do you want to see what recession looks like in Germany just Google Doc's stock market and what are you going to get you're going to get all-time highs over the last year baby so wait a minute wait a minute well I thought if we go into a recession the stock market was supposed to crash and now this is the argument that as long as inflation is gone nobody's going to give a crap if we go into a technical recession who gives a oh Q3 Q4 recession oh look at Germany why does nobody care because there's no like there's no leading indicator that suggests we're going to see this massive second wave of inflation if anything a slight technical recession reiterates that we will so then you really end up with the last big Catalyst which is policy and I this is just what's been so exhausting on the mainstream media is that oh well it's politics oh just wait just I've already I'm already seeing it now I'm already seeing it now people going oh but Kevin there's an election coming up oh like that that's that's just when you know we've run out of bad news now again I'm not saying we can't get the more bad news in fact we've got a quite a few catalysts coming up consider some of the catalysts coming up the first big Catalyst that you've got coming up uh is a price increase for all hether it's investing in real estate investing in stocks you learn everything that I know over my entire career about investing in real estate getting wedge deals building your net worth buying below market value real estate everything I know about stocks and psychology money and then everything I know about making more money that is running a business insurance being an entrepreneur or being an employee how to get a promotion how to make more money how to be a model employee and provide more value like how do we do that and the AI lecture is coming soon all of those courses get a price increase on uh uh June 1st at 11 59 PM so join before that that's actually in like two days so in two days we have an expiration coming up keep in mind there are various different courses you could bundle them up you can bundle them up on the website or email staff at mekevin.com if you'd like uh to talk to us uh and um keep in mind they all come with ich is pretty cool because every day the market is open right around the time the Bell Rings we we go through analysis fundamental analysis on either real estate or stocks or whatever and and we chat which is great so check that out all via the link down below so now yes there are Market catalysts as well like for example tomorrow morning we're going to get the jolts the job openings and labor turnover survey the last time we got surprised to the downside that these were starting to get absorbed tomorrow we're expecting about 9.4 million uh job openings we'll see what happens this slips down more it's a good sign that we're finally bringing the labor market back into balance and eliminates these fears about a wage price spiral uh tomorrow uh you're also going to be getting uh let's see here we'll get a beige book from The Fad that's going to be relatively boring uh and then you're going to wait for about a Thursday which is June 1st price increase day you're going to be getting the ADP jobs report uh that is going that's actually going to be quite interesting we're looking at 165 jobs 165 000 jobs uh on Thursday as well we'll get the ism prices paid survey and then we will also on Friday we'll have a big Catalyst we'll have the jobs report coming out which is fantastic jobs report will be a big deal we're looking for average hourly earnings on a month over month basis moving about point three percent and you're going to be looking for the change in private payrolls to be about 173 000 non-farm payrolls to be about 190 000.
then we're going to get some pmis and ISM numbers this is where we'll get the sort of individualistic reports on prices paid which are relatively useful for understanding okay what are some leading indicators of inflation so far those leading indicators of inflation have been relatively soft so I'm not going to go through all these really the next big Catalyst you want to pay attention to is of course June 13th which will be CPI day we do have a forecast already we are looking at wow that's oh my gosh that'll be remarkable well we are looking at uh first of all the non the more basic part month over month CPI expected to come in at point three we're looking for CPI core to come in at 0.4 core 4 little sticky uh but again as long as inflation expectations are low it's not actually a horrible thing as long as things slowly start trending down and we start seeing that housing roll over as well as Services roll over and we're not seeing some kind of new lift off uh year over year though we're looking at CPI coming in at going from 4.9 to 4.1 a massive drop I mean that's an eight point drop right there on uh the CPI year over year a lot of that though will have to do with energy given that our core year over year will still be sitting at 5.3 but that that will be good uh the next day you're going to have a PPI coming out producer price index along with the Federal Reserve uh Open Market Committee uh expectation for either a rate hike or pause the present forecast by by surveyors even though the market is pricing at about a 56 chance of a 25 BP hi economists are still pricing in a pause so we'll see what happens uh from The Fad but but those are probably your your catalysts here and and quite frankly I I'm just not seeing a big reason for massive volatility in in these numbers obviously we're going to report them we're going to review them in detail but I don't know maybe I'm just missing like the the bear thesis but it's just been very weak I guess that's just the easiest way to put it uh and I I really don't think there's anybody who reads more earnings calls or Economist letters or their pieces from Goldman or Bank of America or Morgan Stanley than me because that's just what I do it I sit around and I read this stuff all day long I actually find it incredibly interesting and the arguments have just been really weak uh I mean again it goes back to sort of like when you start having the Bears uh have to either lie about data or make up data that's when I start going really is there that little bearish news uh and and so some of sometimes I see that uh and I've called it out on Twitter before as well when I see it or here on the channel but again if I get some bearish news I'm happy to report it but but so far I think um you know I I um you know this this is not the market to sit out on uh in fact I hate to say it but I think this is quite potentially the greatest uh potential mispositioning that that our generation will have ever seen uh or I should say that people will have ever seen the generation since I know people of various Generations watch me uh I think this could be the greatest mispositioning you know and I'm not here to to like say somebody you know did something wrong or whatever like everybody everybody makes mistakes and everybody does things great right and and your goal is just to do more things correctly and less things wrong that's that's always everything any human could could hope to do is just so make less mistakes that's everybody's goal and I I unfortunately I really worry that the the the carrot of oh well put all your money in you know Robin Hood five percent wealth front five and a quarter percent so five five percent like all this noise has potentially created some of the biggest mispositioning in over a generation and uh it'll be really remarkable uh to see what happens when and if we start getting a that money flowing back into the economy think for example what the Wall Street Journal is suggesting The Wall Street Journal suggests that what's driving the stock market right now isn't retail investors because they're mostly positioned in mutual funds that is at least with the Wall Street Charles says it's actually just funds like institutions Quant funds uh there's a page on their um homepage talking about this and I was reading through it and I'm like my gosh this is this is terrible for for average Americans who once again will get screwed missing out
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