저자: Kevin · 외국인
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장단기 금리차(2년-10년) 역전이 아직 해소되지 않았고 재스티프닝 시 주식 하락 우려가 있으나, S&P500은 상위 5개 종목이 견인하며 독일 DAX도 사실상 신고가 근처라 강세 흐름이 이어질 수 있다. 베어 논리에 일리는 있지만 상승 여력을 감안하면 하락 시점과 폭은 알 수 없다는 취지.
다듬은 글
so the one thing the Bears have over the market and it's almost the only thing other than potentially sticky inflation or maybe this reanimation of inflation or war with China and Taiwan like somebody just donated five dollars to say how would you navigate the market if you know it's certainty hypothetically of course that we were going to have a conflict between China and Taiwan it's like there's no way you could position for something that far out and that uncertain right but it's very common for the bear thesis to look for bearish reasons and reasons to sell and reasons to short reasons to get out and reasons to not believe in America there's one that stands above all and it is right here this is the inverted yield curve this is the difference between the two-year and the 10-year Treasury and what you'll find is it's actually slipping more into inversion as of late is remarkable and it part of that is because the two-year treasury just so you can visualize how this works because I know sometimes when we hear inverted yield curve it's a little confusing uh and and maybe a little bit overwhelming so what I like to do is I like to try to simplify things I do the same things uh to get you from basically zero understanding to a lot of understanding remember next price increase is June 1st at 11 59 PM so a simple way to look about this is like this let's say the two-year treasury is at four point five percent which is approximately where it is now the 10-year treasury sitting at about 3.75 percent now ordinarily when you lock up money for a longer period of time you would expect that you would have to demand a higher interest rate but that's the opposite of what's Happening Now if you lock up your money for more time you are actually earning a lower yield than if you lock up your money for less time the reason for that is because we do still have lingering inflation and that is creating this inverted yield curve generally the stock market suffers during what's known as the re-stepening of the yield curve right now the yield curve has actually been falling which that is further inverting which potentially somewhat reiterates why the stock market is actually doing well because it's the steepening the going up of this line see over here how it shows negative 0.79 that's just the difference of these two numbers here now I rounded so my difference is about negative 0.75 the actual number is about negative 0.799 whatever the point is It's usually the rest deepening that hurts the market and a lot of folks believe that when we go back to zero and an actual normal yield curve is when we will be in a technical recession now remember we looked at the tax which was the German uh basically Dao it's the top 40 companies uh top 40 Blue Chip companies in Germany and they're technically in a recession right now and their stock market is actually outperformed you're at one year highs in their stock market despite the fact that Germany just technically entered into a recession now what you could do is you could look at okay well when did we have some of this steepening of the yield curve and what did the stock market do around that time well last time we had a steepening of the yield curve was actually some people actually call it a faux deepening they say it wasn't actually a steepening yet in fact we're just going to go right back to Trend so look right here for example let's draw a line let's grab a tool here grab the line tool and what some folks are saying is that we're probably just returning to the trend if this right here was the banking crisis then none of this hump should really exist if the banking crisis is gone and we're actually probably still somewhere around these levels in where the inverted yield curve should be and that when the real reseapening comes that's when we're really going to see a world of hurt because frankly if you look at what the stock market did here which this steepening was around March 10th to March 14th the stock market laughed it off absolutely laughed it off go to the s p 500.
zoom in on March 10th where we got it March 10th so over here you had a what a 1.8 day to the downside one percent day to the downside and then you kind of continued if you zoom out and you look at just the year here I'll set the the scope to just this year which this year began right about where are we where we were right about here so let's set it to right there this is really what the Market's done this year you can see it's been slow and steady March right up on the S P 500.
the NASDAQ gets even more extreme than this and the banking crisis was right here this little bump right here also your steepening of the yield curve so there's this idea that yeah even though we laughed that off looking back as the banking crisis sort of faded away you did have a temporary kind of a little bit of a few days there where you had some red as the yield curve was re-steepening so maybe if we get the real re-steepening uh towards Q3 Q4 and some form of recession then maybe that's where you have some real pain for the stock market and to some extent there might be some reasonableness in this idea given that what's propping up like the S P 500 right now isn't much in fact and this is crazy out of the S P 500 the average return of the bottom 495 stocks zero the average return of the S P 500 is zero if you take out the top five stocks I will show that to you visually right here isn't that crazy the top five stocks Apple Microsoft Amazon and video and Google have driven the s p 500.
the bottom 495 stocks have an average return of zero so this reiterates this sort of bearish thesis that well wait a minute wait a second if we haven't gone through the real re-steepening of the yield curve of course we haven't seen any kind of real pain in the stock market yet and consumer confidence is still extremely low which you can see depicted in this picture here the Blue Line shows you uh leading indicator of consumer confidence and the white line is your S P 500 year-over-year return generally they roughly Trend in the same direction but now we're diverging the S P 500 is skyrocketing as confidence is so low and that's because it's being driven by those five stocks so you have this this narrative that bears can form right now which says just wait the real pain is still coming confidence is too low revenues are going to fall we're going to go in an earnings recession and when we get the re-steepening of the yield curve that's when we're going to get the real pain in the stock market and just wait because that's coming in Q3 Q4 here's the problem with this the problem with this bear narrative is we don't know how high the stock market is going to go between now and that let's look at the NASDAQ for a moment so we look at the NASDAQ the nasdaq's trading for 348.
uh let's zoom out to the week chart so we can make this a little easier we can see our Nike Swoosh recovery over here so we know that in 2020 the stock market was extremely volatile right we got all this crazy up and down mess of 2020 and we had this massive downtrend down but think about that for a moment as we had the downtrend down in 2022 what you didn't want if I said 2020 I meant 2020.
uh what you didn't want was to be in the stock market basically the best move during 2022 was don't be in the stock market because it didn't matter when you had Downs it just ended up going down more the opposite seems to be true now in 2023. where it doesn't matter if we have downs we just get another leg up and so this is leading the Bulls to counter the Bears and say look yeah maybe when the yield curve steep you know steepens again we're gonna have a 10 decline in the NASDAQ but what if that means we end up going all the way up to 404 and then we ring the bell ding and then we dropped 10 and we're at 393 then guess what we're still up about 10 from where we are now and that's the probably that's probably the most frustrating thing to say to a bear is yeah maybe the market will go down but how much is it going to go up first and so obviously nobody knows obviously the charts right now in the week look relatively extended over here obviously we know that this whole like AI Revolution that everybody's talking about and and if you're not studying AI you're getting left behind but don't worry if you want to get caught up on AI you could join where I'm going to teach you everything uh that we've been studying about AI to get you caught up as either an entrepreneur or business owner or or really uh even employee who's trying to make more money or provide more value for a business check that out you're gonna love it price goes up June 1st 11 59 PM so with that said though look the Bears have a point yes usually when you enter a recession the stock market Falls and it's only as you come out of a recession that the stock market actually starts Rising again and usually when the yield curve rate steepens the stock market Falls but the question is how high do we go before that that's the big question and again I would I would really encourage you pay attention to Germany pay attention to Germany which just entered into a technical recession and what I want you to do is I want you to search Google for Dax stock market and zoom out to the max zoom out to the maximum zoom out for the Dax this is the furthest you could look out and what do you have you are nearly wait I'm sorry no you are you are at ah you were 30 points away from all-time highs all-time highs November 5 2021 16 054 we are at 16 024.
so your 30 points on sixty thousand that's less than one percent that's like a third of one percent less probably third quarter whatever a fraction of a percent away from all-time highs and Germany's a recession I don't know it's it's whatever's going on it's weird it just does seem to be very difficult though these days to be bearish uh because we don't seem to have the Catalyst that corroborate why uh we need to continue to be embarrassed embarrassed and I think that's why you see uh so much talk like this you know anytime you turn on the news on it's debt ceiling debt ceiling and a lot of it is oh is it actually still going to go through is it is it actually still gonna uh you know happen just exhaust that's that's all it's exhausting uh and there's nothing new about it I'm tired anyway now I want you to know this when it comes to AI it's
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