저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부동산 시장은 매도자 우위로 과열 조짐이 있으나 아직 버블 신호는 안 보인다는 주장. 2020년 4월 부동산 상승을 예측해 13채를 매입했고 지역 가격이 1년간 20% 올랐다고 함. 재고 부족(작년 80채 대비 현재 40채)과 낮은 금리가 상승을 지지한다고 봄. 다만 금리 2%p 상승 시 가격 20% 하락 위험과 자산 보유 격차 확대를 우려함.
다듬은 글
if things continue the way they are today in 20 years 80 to 90 of americans will be renters and buy and hold landlords will be multi-millionaires hey everyone me kevin here the housing market is a complete disaster right now not necessarily for the wrong reasons it's really good for sellers it's just really bad for buyers in fact buyers today are more qualified than ever the average credit score of a house purchase right now for a buyer is 800.
there are so few deals available that very well capitalized folks are winning deals with higher quality loan terms higher down payments locked in 30-year rate loans and lower quality borrowers people with lower credit scores or less stable income aren't even able to get pre-approval letters these are the opposite characteristics of what we saw in the 2006-2007 housing bubble bust when anybody was able to get a loan dead people were able to get a loan people without jobs income or assets were able to get loans and people with horrible credit scores were able to get loans it's literally the opposite today however something that never ceases to amaze me is the way society and the market reacts to prices going up the more unaffordable housing gets it seems the more and more people are buying up all of the housing that exists and in my opinion this is the definition of insanity last april when everyone believed the housing market was going to crash as people stopped buying houses or that people would stop buying houses people would die leading to a flood of housing inventory because we're in a pandemic tenants would stop paying rent and rental investments would end up bleeding money and people would go bankrupt and there'd be these floods of foreclosures and eviction homes or whatever i said on this channel and the videos still exist folks the data shows real estate is holding firm it's time to buy real estate now before everybody else does you can see those videos they're still there just go look at my real estate videos from april of 2020.
between march and august after saying this i bought 13 properties over the last year i plowed money into real estate now real estate in my area is up 20 year over year and i think we're just getting started and most of these 20 gains from this year-over-year comparison didn't come over the entire year they came between september and today so basically right when i stopped buying now i'm not trying to pat myself on the back but i want to show you or what i want to show you is the ludicrousness of how buyers of any kind of securities or real estate operate when real estate goes up people want to buy when real estate is suffering or potentially about to suffer nobody wants real estate when arc invests in the stock market and kathy wood has her funds skyrocketing 20 percent per month people plow money in when kathy woods fund falls 33 in a month people leave like crazy this is so the opposite of what we should do this is why we say by the dip diamond hand it applies not just to stocks but it applies to real estate as well now that's great but the problem is still present right now people are buying homes like crazy but it's not just the regular retail buyers because the suits are coming in as well ordinarily only 10 of houses are sold to investors of houses multifamily you're usually 50 50 investors and retail buyers with houses though ordinarily only 10 percent are sold to investors that means most of the time when you're competing for a house you're competing against other home buyers one of the reasons i've loved single family so much because as an investor part of that 10 percent i know how to dominate when i'm negotiating well the wall street journal just this weekend reported that in areas like texas 25 of all homes are being sold to investors and in some cases pension funds are now coming in buying up blocks of houses and when houses get commoditized like they are it becomes almost impossible for the everyday buyer to compete when i was buying last summer it was easy for me to buy a wedge deal i was getting properties for below market value left and right and anyone buying with me should be way up today yet euphoria has officially hit real estate and now i'm very concerned that buying on the market value or on market real estate is next impossible i'm seeing hoarding housers and fixer-uppers sell for nearly the price of fixed-up properties it's absolutely incredible what's happening in the real estate market right now it's one of the reasons i'm doubling down on my efforts to find properties before they hit the market my favorite way to do this right now because it's really lazy and it doesn't take a lot of effort is downloading the deal machine app which you can get some free credits for by going to medkevin.com deals and then i as i'm driving around when i go around look for houses looking for houses or multi-family i just click on the different properties i want to send postcards to and it automatically does it for me with my own custom postcard so that way hopefully if people want to sell they call me before just putting a property on the market that way hopefully i can get a deal without having 20 or 30 offers against it again that's medken.com deals but why the heck does it even make sense to buy real estate well because remember this last summer when i was buying real estate it was easy to buy deals there were wedge deals everywhere i was getting properties below market value left and right and again things were wonderful there was balance in the market but today we don't have that balance anymore today people are paying whatever they can just to get in now i don't necessarily blame people for paying whatever they can just to get in because here's the thing interest rates are expected to go up in the future at least over the next the near term here the next four or five years but who cares when you can lock in a 30-year low fixed rate loan right now and besides that real estate might run hot for years to come which means the potential for appreciation which is a form of speculation is very high last night i talked to lauren about how i'm concerned that our area in ventura california is potentially going to turn into the next mini san francisco in terms of real estate pricing not only because people now work from home but why live in san francisco when you can live in the southern california coastline climate which makes up only well i should say the southern california coastline climate is part of the mediterranean or chopper all climate which is just found in seven percent of the world and the only place you can find it is in socal in the united states all of a sudden you have a lot more people with lots of money moving into areas with really desirable weather and what i like i mean look don't get me wrong i i love i love seeing people want to move to the area but i'm very concerned about what i'm seeing in regards to pricing i don't want to become a mini san francisco even though that means my little six hundred thousand dollar rentals which is already really really high some of them that i bought for three 300 000 even though they might go to a million dollars which sounds even crazier that's what happened in san francisco i don't believe that right now we actually have the catalyst for this bubble to burst and that's the crazy and concerning thing is i think the catalysts all point to people just continuously buying real estate and prices going up and inventory not being around why would inventory be around when joe biden says hey having trouble paying your loan no problem our administration over at the consumer financial protection bureau is now going to potentially they're working on this rule but this is what they're working on allow you to extend your loan if you're behind on payments by 40 years we just don't want you to lose your house we're going to stop foreclosures through or at least into 2022.
look i'm not forecasting doom and gloom here in fact i'm kind of forecasting the opposite i think the market's gonna keep booming it's kind of crazy so i'm i'm forecasting boom and zooming instead of doom and gloom but i'm very concerned about the widening of the massive wealth gap that we already have the massive k-shaped recovery is just getting exacerbated by real estate and i've said this time and time again since the start of the pandemic and if you've watched this channel you already know this hopefully you've taken advice if you don't own real estate stocks or an established business you're screwed this country's manipulated capitalistic environment bails people with assets out first like i just described with the biden plan at the same time housing inventory is nearly non-existent at the end of 2012 in my city we had 80 houses on the market today which by the way 80 houses on the market was well below uh our healthy average of 250 to 300 houses on the market which is when we would have a three to four month supply that then in 2012 the end of 2012 beginning of 13 we had one month of inventory as a supply around 80 houses six months later beginning you know i would say march april of 2013 real estate prices went up 20 to 25 in a matter of two months it was literally like march and april it was like okay we're going up up up adjust and it was up 25 like that i'll never forget it because i was actively working with buyers and sellers at the time trying to figure it all out we're charting it day by day everything went to the moon nearly instantly because inventory was so low and the same thing is happening again today except it's even worse see today instead of having 80 houses on the market in my city we have 40 houses on the market less than half the supply we had right before the market popped 20 to 25 now unfortunately what's ironic about this rally is like i said i think it can sustain itself i don't see the signs of a bubble yet i don't see the red flags yet even break even real estate for cash flow purposes is desirable right now why because when people go buy a house with 10 down and turn it into a rental later let's say they put their entire net worth in at 50 grand and they buy a 500 000 house that's their 10 down payment maybe they got credits to cover their closing costs this breaks even you know let's say on on rent so they're making no cash flow they're getting rent and they're paying their mortgage with it guess what's happening well when property values go up 10 that person doubles their net worth when property values go up 20 that person triples their net worth not considering selling costs it's gonna be smaller over time anyway they're doing this because the reason people are buying homes is because you're able to lock in 30-year fixed rate debt so even if the market falls you can't get margin called on a house all they have to do is rent out the rooms or rent out the entire house if they can't make the payment as long as they're buying in a quality area they're not at risk of not being able to fight a tenant worst case scenario you just drop the rent a little bit and find maybe your negative 200 bucks a month but if you can't afford twenty four hundred dollars a year as a negative worst case scenario if the market fell and you had a lower rents you probably shouldn't be buying real estate anyway the point is you're not having to float the entire payment and even if there's a crisis where all of a sudden tenants stop buying what happened or tenants stop paying what happens oh the government pays landlords out mortgage mortgages first remember mortgages got the big bailout it's nuts every month you're also paying off the property so really even though it feels like you're spending this money every single month it's really your tenants paying off your properties for you all you have to do is follow your simple rental renovation rules which i talk about in my course where you can make a ton of money by not over improving your real estate stop going in and we're tearing out countertops and bathrooms and kitchens focus on what matters making your house nice and safe and that's different from cheaping out in lipstick on a pig nice and safe is important but the point is people are looking at housing right now as way less risky than stocks or at least wealthy people are people see frothy valuations in the stock market so they're flooding into the housing market even with break-even real estate they're speculating on the future value and even if worst case scenario they're wrong in the speculation they'll either get bail down or they won't have to sell with a 30-year mortgage and they'll just keep renting out the property that's the crazy thing about real estate and you've got really high quality borrowers right now to where you might not necessarily see these high quality borrowers default now obviously real estate does come with risk the biggest risk right now are interest rates if interest rates all of a sudden pop 2 percent real estate prices will get instant downward pressure of 20 which could start a little bit of a downward spiral or a large downward spiral which that would mean that if the person who just bought a 500 000 house with 10 down their entire 50 000 net worth they would all of a sudden be upside down they would have eradicated their net worth all because of interest rate risk but they won't have to sell they won't get margin called and historically buying and holding hodling real estate is a hedge against inflation and when there's inflation inflation makes paying your debt off easier so even if real estate only goes up at the rate of inflation which usually it exceeds the rate of inflation slightly there are real returns on top of inflation not massively but there are some when you consider leverage and the fact that leverage makes it easier and well inflation makes it easier for you to deleverage to pay off your debt it almost is a no-brainer that you should be trying to buy real estate the hard thing now is finding a good deal now this all makes it seem like i'm saying go out there and overpay for real estate no i'm not exactly saying that if you could find a good deal on real estate or at least a deal of some degree on real estate at this point the margins have gotten a lot tighter for me i operate differently i spent a ton of money when things crashed or were when things were down in real estate whether that was 2012 2013 or right when that pandemic was not crashing real estate and i'm like people are dumping real estate because they think it's going to crash i don't think it is because i'm not seeing it in the data and i saw it two months before everybody else probably six months before the entire market really started getting excited about real estate that's when i saw it and that's when i was buying like crazy it's the same thing i do with stocks like at the end of february and early march i've invested over four million dollars in the stock market only some of that cash came from luckily selling right before the crash but i've plowed more money into the stock market but focusing on real estate here i'm nervous i'm very nervous i'm nervous that in 10 to 20 years if you do not own real estate if you do not own assets you're gonna get left behind 80 to 90 of owners will end up being institutions funds or wealthy landlords buying up all the cheap houses they can the american dream is evaporating and we are going to become a renter nation at this rate and it's going to rob people of the easiest way to build wealth in existence it's not stocks it's real estate e easiest way to build wealth is real estate and i teach you all about that in my and it won't be long now before politicians just wait for it start pushing zero percent down loans for everyone to try to make housing somewhat accessible again we'll see but for right now i'm very nervous that this is the start of a cycle of the one percent getting even richer thanks so much for watching very concerned and folks we'll see in the next video you
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