저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
베네수엘라 사태에도 시장은 안전자산 회피 없이 평온하며 에너지·금융·산업재가 강세. 금은 안전자산 수요로 상승 추세, 귀금속 강세가 다른 원자재에도 우호적. 유가는 공급 과잉과 완만한 수요로 Brent 60달러에서 3~6개월 내 50달러까지 하락 가능성. 세금환급 확대로 소비 자극, 재정적자 확대로 연준의 상반기 금리인하 없음 전망. 신흥국(인도 포함)이 올해도 미국 대비 우위 가능성.
다듬은 글
to talk about and uh let's welcome on board Ed Yadini, dini Research. Ed, hi morning and thanks for your time. First up, give us a sense of um your your take on everything that's happening geopolitically and the equity move that we're seeing globally on the back of this. Yeah. Well, it was actually very fascinating to watch the reaction in the financial markets to what happened in Venezuela over the the weekend.
Uh gold reacted as one would expect. Uh a safe haven rush into gold led to a big increase in the price of gold today and it continues to be on a solid uh upward bullish trend. Uh the surprise to some extent was uh oil. The oil price really didn't do much. It didn't go down. It went up a little bit. energy stocks, particularly the major US energy stocks did very well because uh presumably uh they will have an opportunity to do more uh of their business in Venezuela and developing that vast oil reserve.
Uh but the overall market certainly did not have stock market did not have a safe haven or riskoff characteristic to it at all. The energy stocks did well. So did the financials and the industrials. And that just suggests that investors are pretty calm here about the situation in Venezuela. They don't think that uh they're going to be any uh major geopolitical repercussions, which may be a little bit naive because it'll be interesting to see now that the United States has declared that the Monroe Doctrine is back, that we now are declaring that uh the Western Hemisphere is our sphere of influence.
Well, what's to keep the Chinese from ba basically saying, "Well, if that's the case, then uh uh clearly we we need to move on Taiwan and and what's to say keep Putin from saying, well, you know what? Yeah, I don't really want to resolve this war. I want all of Ukraine." Hm. Uh Ed, if you can also give us uh your assessment of how do you see uh commodities going from here on because the reaction that we saw to Venezuelan crisis was very muted from a commodities point of view.
Uh and uh and the equities market are almost as if they're shrugging off the entire thing except for some of the defense and the uh you know defense stocks or or for that matter IT stocks running up today. [snorts] Yeah, it's it's a good question. a good observation. I mean, commodity prices uh have uh a lot of the basic metals, the precious metals uh have had a very strong run in late 2025.
Some some have started much earlier in 25 like the precious metals, but copper, nickel, tin, those had strong runs at the end of last year. And I think the market is just trying to assess where we go from here. It does look like the global economy has been remarkably resilient uh to the shock of Trump tariffs.
Trump tariffs have turned out to be u much less uh alarming for the global economy and the global economy uh and the US economy have both proven to be very resilient and I think commodity prices the basic materials are there. The precious metals are a combination I mean silver platinum palladium they do have industrial uses gold not so much.
So it's sort of a combination of precious metals being used as a safe haven riskoff asset look is actually pretty good and that should favor other commodities as well. Ed uh hi money this is harsh here how are you seeing uh the oil price move at the moment of course no impact but give us your sense of where oil and crude moves maybe over the short term and the medium term in your opinion.
I'm glad you asked me that good soul. That's important. Very, very important. And there seems to be a glut of oil. Uh I think that on the demand side, there's kind of a flattish uh trend in global demand. And I think some of that is because the Chinese are all driving electric vehicles and uh they power it up with electricity and electricity there isn't uh dependent totally on crude oil.
They also use coal and solar and and so on. So the demand side looks uh pretty flat even if the global economy does well. On the other hand, the OPEC is continuing to produce at their current level and uh we may get some Venezuelan oil though it's very thick oil so it's going to take a while to kind of build infrastructure for it.
Uh but meanwhile the supply is outpacing the demand and so I I will not be surprised if we have a a significant selloff in the price of oil maybe from $60 for Brent down to $50 for Brent within the next three three to six months. So I don't view uh today's action as as particularly significant. Okay.
And and uh talk to us about the scope with regard to US and global markets. uh US markets at least nearing or at all-time highs. Uh what's the scope in 2026 going forward? Just a 25 bips rate cut is what is currently being penciled in. Do you expect rate cuts to be accelerated faster? Is there upside possibilities to rate cuts and therefore how should one view the US market because it is the largest market and will have an impact on global markets as well.
Well, [snorts] I think we have to factor in that um it's it's widely recognized that because of the uh tax bill that was passed last July and it was retroactive to the beginning of 2025. The result of that is that uh during the tax reporting season, refunds are going to be much larger than usual and that's going to be very stimulative for consumer spending.
It's also going to mean that the government's going to have to raise more money. In other words, the deficit numbers will look worse in in coming months. And I think in in that kind of environment, there's no reason for the Fed to lower interest rates. Uh the the risk is that they get the bond vigilantes mad uh simply by having too much stimulus both on the fiscal and monetary side.
So I think the surprise is that the Fed will not be lowering interest rates at all at least during the first half of the year when all this fiscal stimulus is coming in. Uh I think on a global basis emerging markets are emerged last year. They had very good performance. They beat the US and that may continue to be the case this year.
It's already starting out uh in the couple of days of trading that we've had. The emerging markets are outperforming. India consolidated last year after a huge runup and I I think India will perform well this year um as it as it did prior to last year. Okay, Ed, appreciate you joining us and thanks for that view. Once again, thank you so much for your time today. Thank you. Thanks so much.
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