저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 증시는 단기 10% 조정 가능성은 있으나 큰 폭락은 당분간 없다는 입장. [시장 전망] - 인도 지수 10,500 → 9,000~9,500 하락 가능성 언급, 본격 폭락은 아니라고 봄. - 미국 조정 시 인도도 영향받을 수 있으나 더 큰 낙폭은 아닐 것으로 예상. [금리·실적] - 미국 10년 금리는 3~3.25%, 최대 3.5% 이하 유지 기대; 유럽(독일 10년 1% 미만), 일본(0.1~1.2%)에 여유가 있다고 판단. - 미국은 세율 35%→20% 인하로 향후 3~4분기 실적 폭발 예상, 좋은 뉴스 아직 남아 있다고 봄. [신흥국·버핏 관련] - 골드만삭스 보고서 인용: 신흥국이 선진국처럼 비싸졌다는 지적. - 버크셔의 신흥국 투자에 대해서는 인도에 큰 기회를 보지 못할 것이라고 봄(자본 규칙 일관성 부족 지적). 인도 생약·제네릭 제약 기회는 언급. [버핏 바이앤홀드 및 인덱스 논쟁] - 버핏이 일부 보유 주식을 매도하는 등 바이앤홀드 원칙을 일부 수정했다고 평가, 다만 원칙 자체가 바뀌진 않는다고 봄. - 바이앤홀드는 실제로는 실적 발표마다 가설을 재검증하는 과정이라고 설명. - 버핏 10년 헤지펀드 vs 인덱스 내기 관련: 헤지펀드 수수료 구조 때문에 인덱스가 유리했다는 해석에 공감, 단 인덱스 우위의 배경은 헤지펀드 수수료·펀드오브펀드 구조라고 봄. - 좋은 매니저를 찾기 어렵다면 인덱스 투자가 낫다는 버핏 취지에 동의. [종목·자산 언급] - 개별 대상 종목(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금 등)에 대한 직접 언급 없음. - 인도 제약(바이오시밀러) 업종 기회 언급.
다듬은 글
but here's moal oswal speaking exclusively with ET now just ahead of the 2018 busha haway AGM Ram Agarwal believes there is a chance of 10% correction in the market but there will not be a major crash anytime soon in fact speaking on Buffett's addressed to the shareholders he believes Buffett will not speak on Emerging Markets as he's not enamored by the opportunities of investing in India correction yes 10% correction uh yes but crash I don't think so at least in India because we are not buying us markets and all so in India from 10,500 going to 9,000 even or 9,500 is quite possible you know but uh uh I I don't see that kind of Spike that kind of situation even the global I mean if there is a route in US markets and I think uh it is going to have impact here also maybe we'll have a bigger route than what happens in us but if you look at the say if the if the thing is linked to the yield Europe is still struggling at 1% % German 10 year is still below 1% uh Japan is still at .1.2 so I think there's lot of slack but people are scared the past this kind of expansion 9 10 years expansion and we just got the tax cut from 35 to 20% the earnings are yet to come people are yet to be soaked into the enhanced earnings in next 3 four quarters so I think there lot of good news still in the system there's a earnings explosion in us uh the yield part is uh I mean I hope it doesn't go beyond 3 3.25 3 and a half because there's enough slack in Europe and Japan I'm also expecting him to say something about Emerging Markets specifically like give a specific com essentially because you know the noise is getting louder I'll take a quote from Goldman Sax's recent report where they're calling Emerging Markets rich countries Emerging Markets are looking like rich countries and they are in profile U you know drawing parallels between developed markets and emerging markets at a time like this you know one would expect that if all the big investors in the world are looking at Emerging Markets Ray Al has taken an exposure to Emerging Markets em ETFs particularly you would expect him to say something specifically about Em Right he should bring in Investments within this region yeah but he has not been a great fan of Emerging Markets I mean he has come here changing he has the guys I mean he his Deputy AIT Jan is from India he knows enough about India clearly is not enered by uh you know opportunities of investing in India so I I don't think uh and he see his one basic faith is the laws of capitalism and that is very well developed only in the developed countries that's why they are uh developed countries you know here at a drop of hat you keep changing the laws someday you say capital gain tax is there someday different tax I mean every single bureaucrat uh redefines his tax laws every 3 four five years so that's that's what doesn't suit him at least he wants something where there is a stability of every aspect of but if you're looking at Value clearly developed markets is very little scope I Europe maybe but he's bought into uh two isra companies one isar which is a full acquisition and now tea minority purchase why can't you look at India why can't you look at I mean China also they must looking at I'm sure they must be looking to invest in India but where is the sizable opportunity he's sitting on 135 look at his size 135 billion by the year and it will be 160 $170 billion so the minimum deal size you must sest is not $100 billion you must suggest him few billion dollars to invest in a high quality company at reasonable price so he's not going to buy a high quality company at any price for example now tea is you know his bet on generic farma and India is got so many opportunities within generic Pharma even what what biocor is doing it's turning a page right in terms of exploring the biosimilars market I think there's great opportunity in Indian farmer so he can he can buy you know after his colding all the airline companies for so long such a long period he can buy all five of them so I would't be surprised if he buys all the companies in India itself so he should keep his expertise where uh his expertise is uh pretty much embedded uh but what about the fact that he's challenging his own old philosophies right Buy and Hold classic philosophy he's lived by it and now he's kind of saying okay maybe that's not the most prudent strategy in this market environment in fact I read an opinion editorial uh about this person who show sold out Burkshire haway shares because he says Buy and Hold in today's market environment is dead yeah so I don't think fundamentally he's going to change the Buy and Hold per se but buy and hold forever that he's revisiting some stocks I mean he's saying that the uh stock which are not kind of a strategic uh this thing he's not owning 100% if he's owning 100% it's almost forever but if he has a Monet Stakes clearly it is open to sell and we are seeing uh more of on that he's willing to sell and I think he has made some changes in last year that uh uh the policy books you know the uh the guidelines uh of holding there he has made changes that don't consider that if you bought something we are not uh willing to sell so to that extent yes he has given in but I don't think that means a a lot of change I mean maybe not forever but 10 20 30 years definitely he will do it Ashish ETFs versus mutual funds you know that will always add something my two bits on the whole Buy and Hold thing how I understand it is that when somebody says Buy and Hold because you know a lot of your viewers are our investors so I would like just for them to CL clarify that every investment we make is a hypothesis right and companies declare their sales numbers every month and the results every quarter and you know so every hypothesis you make with actual Market data is getting retested pretty frequently so Buy and Hold actually doesn't mean that you're buying and forgetting there's a lot of work which goes into Buy and Hold and you're reevaluating your decision I can stretch it to other extent and say that we are reevaluating our decision every month and every quarter but if it is moving along the path which we originally hypothesized then what is the reason to sell actually so Buy and Hold is also contextual and there is lot more detail which goes into actually the uh Buy and Hold thought process and yeah I mean on your point on ETFs and I mean my takeaway last year because there was a lot of debate because he mentioned that you know you should look at passive I still feel that what he was saying he said that if it was my wife you know I would tell her to put it into passives I think what he's trying to to say is that very difficult to find a great manager one is it's not everybody's cup off to tea to become an investor themselves and second is that great managers are few and far between so if you're not a Warren Buffett and he said that Warren Buffett is blessed because he has Charlie maner who kind of influenced him so if you can't find a partner like Charlie maner and if you can't be Warren Buffett then you're better off putting it in the index IND fun so what he's saying is that you know look if you have a process and a philosophy and discipline and patience then you're fine but if you can't find such a manager then you go to ET which I don't think anybody disputes I mean we all agree that you need a great manager to manage but he's talking about that 10 year bet where he won he's like 10 years and index fund index fund winning against the hedge fund because hedge people lot of fees no no one is that second they take a lot of fee yeah so the on downside they don't they don't punish themselves but on upside they take 220 so you know so it has not worked uh well so he put that bet it was more of a kind of conviction than anything but I urged him last year sir to invest in an Indian mutual fund and he said no ways I'm not doing that in the US I'm not doing that why why did he say that why he's sitting on why why doesn't he buy ETF himself till he buys a yeah you should ask if by chance meet him you ask him but you know the bet that he you must ask the bet that he placed I studied that whole thing you know when the 10 years got over and everything I studied all of that about it it had huge number of hedge funds which are fund of funds so just think of it you're buying a battery of funds those funds are funds of funds and the underlying funds are again owning stocks and Futures and hedges and all those kinds of things so I'm sorry but I don't know how was it actually supposed to outperform because even in India if you buy some 20 different mutual funds which is owning 50 different stocks I mean it's cliche but you don't you never beat the market by buying the market no so you know just the example that you gave about 2017 where index funds you know are at an index level at the headline index level did outperform uh individual okay make that point and I'll continue yeah sorry so there's a lot of debate in India also
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