저자: Matt · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 출연자들은 인플레이션이 아직 잡히지 않았다고 보며, 제롬 시겔의 연준 피벗 기대는 과도한 낙관(hopium)이라는 입장이다. 제롬 시겔 주장 정리: Case-Shiller 주택가격 상승률이 급감(15.6%→13%대)했고, 연준이 인플레이션을 잡아가고 있어 곧 피벗이 올 것이라는 주장. 다음 주 75bp 인상 가능성은 인정하나 이후 인상 폭은 줄고 내년 금리는 하락할 것으로 봄. Matt 반박 근거: 난방유 갤런당 5.79달러, 휘발유 약 4달러, 달걀 12개 3.69달러 등 체감 물가가 여전히 높음. 식료품·우유 가격도 상승했다고 주장. Dion 입장: 경제 수치 해석은 감정이 아닌 이성으로 해야 하며, 시겔은 수치를 잘못 해석하고 있다고 평가. 변화율(rate of change)이 가속·감속하는지가 중요하다고 설명. 주택시장 전망: 재고 감소·매물 회수로 주택 가격 하락세는 바닥을 칠 것이라는 견해. 여러 경제학자가 주택시장을 잘못 예측했다고 지적. CPI 구조 분석: 재화(상품)는 CPI의 약 27%, 서비스는 약 73%. 상품 가격이 하락해도 임금 인상과 주거비(OER) 상승으로 서비스 인플레이션이 지속되어 최종 3~4%p 구간 하락에 수년이 걸릴 것이라는 전망. 구조적 요인: 2020년 이후 정부의 대규모 유동성 공급, 임대·대출 유예 정책으로 소비자들이 과거보다 더 많은 부채를 감수하는 심리 변화가 인플레를 지속시킨다고 봄. 원격근무 확산으로 저임금 지역 이주 등 노동시장 변화도 언급. 금리 전망: 연준이 5% 금리를 유지하며 장기간 버틸 가능성이 크며, 볼커 사례처럼 조기 인하 시 이중침체 위험이 있다고 주장. 마이크 잔디(Moody's)의 4% 전망은 과도하다고 평가하고 6~6.5%까지 상승 가능성 언급. 출연자 전망: Matt는 시겔의 시각을 역으로 따르면 부유해질 것이라며 반대 베팅을 시사. Dion은 내년 인플레와 금리가 높을 수 있으니 대비 계획이 필요하다고 강조. 리스크: 인플레가 예상보다 빨리 꺾이면 금리 인하 기대로 자산 가격이 반등할 수 있음. 출연자 주장은 주로 부동산·실물 체감에 근거하며 주식·암호화폐 등 대상 자산에 대한 직접 언급은 제한적.
다듬은 글
good morning good afternoon good evening folks Michael Zuber one rental at a time back with the boys Matt and Dion how you doing Matt I'm doing super awesome it's Tuesday happy to do an Amigos on Tuesday absolutely Dion how are you howdy I'm doing great I'm curious to see how your new weekly lineup starts to look with your new days off yeah I I am I'm still struggling uh because I have all these great relationships lots of friends to make everything fit um in this new schedule so it'll probably take a couple weeks to work out so I appreciate the flexibility from both of you this is the part where he lets us go on the same call Dion in all seriousness um I love the Three Amigos mat and we may need to do this Tuesdays which we you and I have operated for almost two full years now we'll figure it out yeah we'll figure it out so um I'll see if my schedule will allow now you get back to us I know you have to check with someone I'm not sure who that someone is but yeah it's funny oh my God what I want to do what I want to do here is I want to talk about Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel is a Wharton professor and he has been all over my feed for the last really 45 days he's an angry white man just he's railing against the fed he's yeah I've never seen him so angry I mean he is angry and uh he came out I watched it this morning he is all giddy now because the case Shiller and housing numbers showed a record-breaking deceleration right it went from I think 15 6 to 13.
he's all giddy about that right record record price drop our records slow down and he's basically saying the FED is having tremendous progress on inflation and we should expect a Fed pivot soon now In fairness he still thinks we get 75 next week but he's like after that the fed's going to stop sooner they're going to not go as high and yes rates will come down next year and I don't know what he's smoking but I thought I would come to you uh I know Matt is chomping out the bit so we're actually going to go to Dion first so we'll give Dion a chance to go first thanks for that because this this actually isn't my wheelhouse um and it isn't content I normally take in because I don't like to and to steal words from you off a camera I don't like to watch people who know how to do math but not interpret the numbers right right and what I've seen from the few videos I watched because we had this topic coming up he's talking about the FED pivot because we have inflation massive improvements in inflation correct correct if you're seeing that let me know yeah exactly leave comments below where's the massive Improvement in inflation I'd love to know and then he's calling for two percent next year yes yep yeah uh-huh so that's not interpreting the numbers in any way that makes sense so I kind of tried to to Shield myself from absorbing any more from that yeah it does feel emotional right I mean that's that's one thing I I try really hard to do I am an emotional person right if you ever worked with me in my sales career I you know behind closed doors I could get pretty animated and passionate but I always tried to be that duck that looked calm and that's what I try to do with all these econ numbers is is be common it does it feels emotional and anytime you let emotion into rational thinking it it can get kind of wonky so I agree with you Dion uh Matt what do you got let him have it f the duck I don't duck anything no you're not calm on anything because you are all I'm gonna fight you want to fight yeah or fight yeah um yeah I mean I think at the end of the day I mean hey he's a trained Economist he has way more years of schooling than I do oh yeah um which isn't hard um pretty much everybody does but hey at the end of the day I just look at it and say you're reading charts I'm living it and so I don't see that they've gotten a good hold of inflation I just paid 5.79 for a gallon of heating oil that's not a hold on inflation I just paid almost four bucks a gallon for gasoline that is not a whole lot of inflation I just paid 3.69 cents for a dozen eggs in the cheapest place that we can get eggs that's not a whole lot of inflation so while he wants to sit there with his hopium and think that they're gonna reverse trace or reverse track anytime soon keep on hoping bro because you know what my tenants or my real people me real people we're not living that way we're not cooped up in some the classroom looking at charts and graphs and talking about our feelings and saying that they're doing it wrong we're living the daily and that's what I'm doing and so yeah I know what a gallon of milk costs it's now more than five bucks I know what eggs cost it's now more than three bucks so bring it on all you want that they've gotten under control he's got his head up his ass and he doesn't know anything he's talking about because the fact the matter is is I'm shopping today for food for my family and he couldn't be more wrong it's down trending yeah because they they used millions of gallons out of the spr every day yeah congratulations on that let's let's take that and add that back in now let's let rents catch up are they still way ahead Jeremy yeah it certainly doesn't feel that way to me and my all my tenants yeah so I think there's there's some things that I just want to put out here is kind of uh I guess I'll call it educational I'm not really sure how to phrase this uh in the world of economics and statistics there's something called rate of change not only absolute change but rate of change sure right so you could say something went down point two percent but is it accelerating or decelerating right because if the rate of change accelerating or decelerating I believe and again I'm not trying to defend Jeremy I'm just trying to give the other side what he is pointing at is an accelerating rate of change yes which is fair that's valid I do think he's extrapolating way too much yes uh I think he's been influenced by Kathy Wood meaning uh that there's a lot of hopium uh so I agree the rate of change on stuff is accelerating around housing right we just talked about case Schiller having a record month-on-month drop between July and August of 2.6 percent went from 15 6 to 13 flat um that rate of change is accelerating but that will bottom out right you I think what Jeremy is looking at is a rate of change that continues to accelerate and I think that's an error in judgment right what have we seen with inventory and housing for example on July 15th I mean actually in June I made a call about July 15th I said that's going to be the day that the world changes it changed uh we saw a bunch of inventory and wish pricing then it came back and I think we're gonna have inventory falling below right that's that's reading the tea leaves not get not getting fascinated by rate of change why is that important well a lot of folks got the housing market wrong including people had been on my channel who are economists Lance Lambert who's the fortune uh Fortune um editor John wake all these other like all these people Lance Lambert they all saw the change in housing from July to August on inventory um Moody's Analytics Mark Zandy they're all like oh look at the rate of change it's accelerating it's going to continue to the Moon we're going to be at 2 million inventory in a moment I'm like guys you don't understand what's happening mom and dad are saying I want to get last year's prices and they're going to take them off the market when they can't and sure enough that's what happens so I think Jeremy is living on hopium or wishful thinking the big issue in all of this is when you really break apart core CPI which is where I think the problem lies and it's going to be super sticky is the difference between services and stuff and I think this is why Kathy Wood gets it wrong Kathy Wood is screaming that we're going to have deflation in stuff TVs clothing right there's all this stuff on shelves and what what's going to happen is she's probably going to be right all you know what I'll even say she is right but what you don't realize is stuff roughly speaking makes up 27 of course CPI so if clothing goes down and TVs go down it's 27 Services make up 73 percent so when you have wage inflation you have owner's equivalent rent going up even if you have a nice drop in stuff the services one's just going to run it over so I think I think folks I think folks are looking at the rate of change because we might go from eight like we went from nine one to eight two we might go from eight two to seven but it's going to be that last three or four percent that's going to be It's Gonna Take Years I now think it's going to take years to break years very possibly years so just so everybody knows who Jeremy Siegel is because he's not just a Wharton professor and this is something I think a lot of people don't know I actually do a little bit of research on people when I find out that they're espousing these silly ideas like inflation is seemingly under control someone doesn't put gas in their own car somebody doesn't buy their own eggs and somebody sure as hell doesn't buy their own milk so Wisdom Tree for those of you who watch Financial channels and see them he is the senior investment strategy advisor and he collaborated with wisdom tree to create two unique model portfolios called seagull Wisdom Tree Global Equity model and the Siegel wisdom treat longevity model so I'm just gonna say he's really not a professor that's actually looking at the actual day-to-day of Joe he's again in a think tank looking at graphs looking at charts no offense he's an economist but at the end of the day he's not living it he's not living it he's not I think I think I think it's even worse than that I think he's probably has these portfolios I'm going to guess they're down probably down a lot and now he's trying to talk it up you watch people he wants Jeremy he wants you to buy stocks that's what Jeremy wants yep yeah so I think there's two things that are missing every time an economist talks about um inflation because almost every everybody that I've seen looks at what if CPI and what is PPI and they're ignoring like the mental shift that happened in society in 2020.
so we're all close to right around that half a century old we grew up and we lived in a time where if there was such a thing even fantasized about like a pandemic people thought you would lose your house you'd be homeless and you wouldn't have food and it would be zombie apocalypse you need ammunition to take food from someone else and now we've seen this the government's got your back they'll just print billions of dollars a month 120 billion dollars a month and we'll go you can't convict somebody for not paying their rent and then we'll say forbearance you don't have to pay your mortgage and we're gonna make it to where forbearance comes back with a 40-year fixed interest rate you don't have to pay the missed ones until the end of the mortgage like all of these things that weren't thoughts in 2019 and so we have consumer confidence above any other people will take on debt now more than they ever would have five ten years ago which is going to be inflationary and then that's the first thing the mental shift the second thing is I still think people are underestimating the power of working remotely I think if if you're watching this right now and you know anyone in your circle of friends making twenty three dollars an hour or less doing a job where you have to go to work they're making a mistake yeah almost everyone I know is considering the 24 an hour job work from home job that they found not one that they think they can find but they've got an offer in hand versus going out and working in the public again and that's a shift where here in Tacoma sure okay average income go to Gary Indiana make 24 an hour go to Arkansas Louisiana there's lots of places you know right so we're going to continue even if rates go up I think we're going to continue to see inflation which is yeah I yeah I think again when I when I talk about inflation I think there's the easy bit and then there's the real work right a lot of people are talking about including Mark Zandy from Moody's Analytics thinks half of inflation is going to be easy right for he actually said we're going to be at four percent in six months I'm like dude that's a ballsy call I don't see it right I think we might see six percent maybe six and a half but after that the real work begins that's why I think the fed's got to get the five percent and just hold it the fed's gonna get the five percent and it's going to hold on tight they may have to cut they don't want to but they're going to hold on tight see if they can go all year at five percent because inflation is hard to beat I mean even even uh Paul volcker who gets all the credit for breaking inflation he had a false start I mean I don't know if people look at it but he tried it he raised rates he thought he had it licked he'd cut and then he had a double dip recession which was nasty I lived through it um that's where my dad was unemployed for like six months or something we were yeah it was horrible so um yeah we we've we've got to hope the FED can beat this thing so uh Matt where can people find you well lastly uh it's nice that Zandy finally actually made a call because he doesn't usually do those but I understand why he wouldn't because he's never right it's been wrong a lot yeah he's wrong I mean honestly Vote or bet the opposite and you'll be wealthier than your dreams could possibly imagine so Lumberjack landlord on Instagram and uh YouTube as well as 11 30 a.m Eastern Time currently on Sundays for live streams and yes equal opportunity snowflake melting here at The Lumberjack land and Dion how are you how about you and final thoughts uh is also and I'll repeat this because I say this once in a while inflation could be really high next year interest rates can be really high next year have a plan for that inflation can go down interest rates can go down I have a plan for that you can find me right here on YouTube diontalk Financial Freedom awesome thanks guys
Comments 0