저자: RaamdeoAgrawal및출연자VijayKedia·Madhu등—제목/설명란정보부족으로소속확인불가,주출연자'RaamdeoAgrawal'은제목기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 7월 예산 발표 후 자본이득세 인상(단기·장기)에 대한 패널 논의. 세수 확대와 소비 촉진 효과, 인프라·제조업 등 기존 테마 지속을 언급. 시장은 다소 과열로 판단되어 신규 투자는 신중, 일부 종목은 매도 고려 및 장기 보유 원칙 강조. 주가지수 24500 언급. 개별 자산(국내외 종목·금리·환율 등)에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
All the stalwarts are with us right now, please put them all in the window for once. A. Ramdev ji, because you run a mutual fund, a brokerage, and are a successful investor yourself, how are you looking at today's budget, especially look at the tinkering that has been done in capital gains taxation.
I think that, A. According to the party that is going on in the market right now, there will be about 25 to 30 percent more taxation in all three categories, be it long term, short term, or speculation. So, I think the tax mobilization from the market is quite big. I don't know that number, but it will be a very good number, it may even come to Rs.
100 to lakh crore. In this, sir, which way is this signaling that the duty cut that happened in excessive speculation will be promoted, there will be a trend towards non-risky assets, A. yes, it seems that I mean equity, I mean, they are saying that you have earned a lot of money in equity, so you should keep giving some to us as well, I mean, I don't Think they are rational because they should encourage this particular asset class.
So, let's say you have cut speculative long term by 10%, which means I think your thinking is that if you have earned a lot of money, then you should spend a little part of it with some portion of guess. I don't think the logic is that we should revise the incentive to invest in equities, but basically I understand the logic of why the long term capital gains tax has been increased so much.
I understand that short term is the speculative tax rate, so in any case you are paying the full tax, there is no change for the speculative. You are saying that the short term has been increased, it is okay, the long term should not have been increased, the long term should have been kept the same, or you are punishing the long term holders.
If you are punishing all the long term holders, then no, what do you mean, do you want to make people speculators or do you want people to Invest and keep it for a long term to build the country and to build enterprises. I feel that brother, you should speculate too much, make hasty moves, there is no benefit in keeping it for the long term, then you keep moving ahead.
This is an interesting thing, Vijay Bhai Ramdev ji, there is a bit of a contrast between you both, right now you are saying that there is no problem, similarly people keep missing out on 1, how will you respond to what Ramdev ji is saying, no, I do not have that much wisdom to refute what Ramdev ji is saying, but personally my view is that understand, there also you made 15 for 20 in the short term, here you made 10 for 123, so you are encouraging people to make long term investments, because you have reduced the tax, yes, because that too there also you made 15 for 20, here also you made 10 for 125, so see the ratio, you will have to pay tax, there are 1 lakh 69 thousand people who earn one crore They show more than 1000 crore income in India, you cannot deny those things, it means that those who talk about oil and oil, oil will come from sesame only, brother, you will earn from the one who is earning, now in the morning they said Annadata and Puran madam came in it and they have told those four categories, so who will pay the tax brother, tell me here ultimately, only those who can pay will pay the tax, those who can pay do not want to pay, those who cannot pay do not want to pay, obviously it is so, then how will it come in the country, ok Madhu brother, are you ready to pay a little more tax, Anuj, I will repeat my point, if there is a gain, then there is no problem in paying tax, as long as the Indian economy continues to do well, the markets remain vibrant, if we take something from our gain, then it is fine, so as long as they take all the necessary steps, brother, this country should keep growing, this economy should keep growing, the companies here should keep growing, I know, in anchor terms, ultimately you can understand it like Vijay said, I am from his point I completely agree that ultimately the government will ask for tax from the person who earns, we are not happy with this, seeing that the tax is increasing but there is no option in it, if the government has to make allocation somewhere else then taxation will have to be collected from somewhere and this is the history of this country not just today but for the last 20 years that the burden of taxation always falls more on the top two people, 2, 3 crore people, Anuj, you should check the history of not just the present but the last 25 years and it is possible that there may not be any change in the future, so I am saying this so that our country keeps doing well, our country keeps moving forward, our corporate sector keeps doing well, then I have no problem in paying 10 to 12, as long as they make guess I have no problem paying the taxes, okay absolutely Atal Bihari Vajpayee ji had said it, you said it in almost the same way Madhu Bhai Ramdev Sir, let's not just talk about taxation, a lot of things were announced in the budget, something on real estate Majors came, some steps were taken on some gold, overall how did you see the budget, if we keep this taxation dept aside for once, fiscal deficit is also 4.9, next year there is talk of 4.5, overall how are you seeing the budget, look at you, he has given everything to everyone, he has tried to address all the segments in all ways for all the people of the lower class, by way of stand reduction or lower tax rate or stoppage, if you look at the rest of the budget paper, you will understand more, it is a bit populist, there are quite wide spread benefits, so maybe the consumption subsidy was also announced very well for the farmers, that is one of the biggest things, you see, as the speech started, first of all his focus was on the farmers, in that the increase in MSP and the paaja 101 has been given to everyone, he gave a stand reaction, from that I feel that there should be some reduction in wide spread consumption subsidy at the bottom of the pyramid or something like this, but the way extra income is given to everyone It has been given in my hand, I think it will give a little boost to consumption.
I want to discuss the consumption theme with you as well, Vijay ji, the 77500 that remains extra in your hand, especially if you are in the new tax regime, how much will it be seen consuming, as Rahul was also mentioning that look, the new employees who are taking up jobs, the government will be seen giving them a minimum of 1 lakh and a maximum of 1 lakh separately, they will get a minimum of 15000, how much will this be a change, not towards consumption, I do not have the data for this and I do not have the knowledge about how much difference it will make, as Rahul ji told and I actually do not understand the mathematics, overall it seems to me that this budget is a very good budget in itself, whether you take it in terms of fiscal deficit or look at it for tourism and now I want to give you another answer to it, I told you that there are two, two, three ways for tourism, one is medical Tourism takes place due to which income increases and there is tourism related to one religion, so in this way whatever these people and others have taken, like they have taken solar, they had already told earlier about the number of houses they have taken, so all this together is going to consume, my overall feeling is like this, so is it around these themes, now I am talking about that investor who is saying that if there is income then tax will also have to be paid, will new money be seen being invested around those same themes, then how are you going to position yourself in terms of new investments, if there is no new investment at this time, then I would not like to make any new investment, because the market is a bit overheated, even if I have no idea, I will wait for it a little, and in this way also I am almost fully invested and I feel that the old themes which were prevalent earlier, those themes are going to continue in future also, like infrastructure, that is going to continue in future also, I think manufacturing could be the biggest problem in India, which One red flag that I feel, or rather fear, is unemployment.
The rate of unemployment is 80-90 lakh jobs, which is needed every year. Apart from that, those who are leaving their jobs need jobs back. For this, if you boost the manufacturing sector, then it will benefit from it. So, I feel that the old themes, wherever the government was focused, will continue and whatever they have said now, all the new policies that they have announced are around the same.
By the way, perhaps there is news that the indexation benefit on real estate has been abolished. Perhaps that is what I am trying to confirm because if this happens, then this will also be a big negative. Well, Ramdev Sir has to go. Ramdev Sir, one last question, then what returns should we expect from you in the market from here because the last three years have been a golden period.
Especially for mid-cap investors, the returns that we are getting right now, firstly, the corporate performance is still saying that this year there will be growth at 15-17, so that is one thing, secondly, the participation which has been very strong till now, so I do not see much change in the liquidity flow, so the return expectations that were there, in my opinion, this budget will not make any difference, there is nothing like that in your market facing returns, there are some minor changes in taxation, that is your personal after making money in the market, what ever you have to pay, so I do not think that it has impacted the market in any way and since whatever was the expectation from 15, your annual expectation is doubling in five years, I think that remains an intact situation for five years, this is a formula of Ramdev Sir, which Ramdev Sir is teaching with great passion these days in the Rule of 72.
Actually, I recently went to interview Ramdev Sir. He made me sit in his office and explained the rule to me. After that, he gave me a book, a piece of paper, and a pen. Ramdev Sir then said, " Come on, I'm giving you three or four examples. Tell me, by playing this role, in how many years will your investment double?" Ramdev Sir, by the way, that was a very good experience for me, and we'll cover it thoroughly later.
Thank you very much for joining us today. Ramdev Sir, Madhu Bhai, what would be your message to investors right now? Many people are asking me, should I reduce my investments to zero for once? What would you say, Anuj Bhai? We've had years of experience here in this market. Whenever we take a call, we say, the market is very volatile, reduce it to zero, or sometimes it's bottomed out, sell everything and invest.
All that has n't had that much of an impact on my long-term career. So, I would say, be very careful because the market has given very good returns. There has been a very heavy run up in many sectors and many individual companies, so this time I would say that there is an opportunity to pick shares very carefully and wherever you have seen extraordinary gains, where you feel that the valuation of the companies has really gone out of the way, I think you should sell fearlessly so that if you sell and the price goes up, you will always feel that oh my god, I have sold this and its price has gone up, you know, now we did not get it written from anywhere that we will buy at the bottom and sell at the top, as long as our returns have been made, wherever the returns have been very good, I am telling you what I am doing myself, Anuj, I am selling shares also and but I am also open that if I see any real competition opportunity, I will not buy it because the index 24500 has become very big, if I find any competition opportunity and if I have a long term, I have my own money, then I I am open to make investment but I am a very careful investor at this point of time that is all I would say ok b brother thank you very much, in fact please bring DLF once thank you so much, one thing I was saying is that the indexation benefit has been removed after that you see how it is, in retail everyone wants to become Vijay Kidiya what would be your message no my message is the same Anj bhai invest after thinking carefully don't comment on rumours waste time this is a business of knowledge and patience learn from experience and do the best the simple message is brother if you are here for long then there is no point in taking and the thing you said that people tell you that yes I should get out right now sell everything and get out, in my 30 years of history there was not a single day when I ever got out after selling everything rather at 99 times I have been invested at 100 99 so saying this if you leave the pitch if you run away or get out leaving the money If you cannot score a century then your chapter of earning money is over, at least you will stay put, the market will also fall, there is a rising economy brother, there is a rising stock market, there is a rising economy, chances will come when you are standing on the pitch and playing, if you do not hit fours or sixes then keep taking single runs, if you do not hit a single run then just stand there and keep playing defense, you do not want to lose a wicket, basically if you lose a wicket then leave the pitch and go to the stadium, your chapter is over, your history is over, that means you have become history, you have become history, so stay put here, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, thank you very much Vijay Bhai, thank you so much, I have not taken a break for a long time and see, I also have to run the channel, so I will take a small break and come back.
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