저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 예산 발표 후 자본이득세 인상(단기·장기 모두)이 시장에 미칠 영향을 논의. 세수 확대 기대와 주식 투자 위축 우려가 나왔고, 예산 전반(농업·소비·인프라·제조업)은 긍정 평가. 출연자는 신규 투자는 자제하고 일부 고평가 종목은 매도를 고려하며 현금 비중을 높일 여지를 언급. 장기 보유 원칙과 Rule of 72(연 12% 수익 시 6년 배가) 설명 포함.
다듬은 글
All the stalwarts are with us right now, please put them all in the spotlight, Ramdev ji, because you run a mutual fund, a brokerage, and you yourself are a successful investor, how are you looking at today's budget, especially look at the tinkering that has been done in capital gains taxation. I think that according to the current trend in the market, there will be 25 to 30 percent more taxation in all three categories, be it long term, short term, or speculative.
So, I think tax mobilization from the market is quite big, I don't know that number, but it will be a very good number, it may even reach Rs 10 lakh crore. In this, sir, which way is the signal that the trend will again be seen increasing towards highly speculative non-risky assets, ah yes, it seems that it means equity, that is, they are saying that you have earned a lot of money in equity, so you should keep giving some to us as well, it means I don't think there is any rational because to them this Particular asset classes should be encouraged.
So whatever you do, it is speculative, I understand it. But even in the long term, you increased it from 10% to 12%. This means that I think your thinking is that if you have earned a lot of money, then you should invest a little part of it with some portion of guess. I don't think the logic is that we should not disincentivize investing in equities.
But basically, I understand the logic of why the long term capital gains tax has been increased so much. Short term is a speculative tax rate, so in any case, you are paying the full tax, there is no change for the speculative. You are saying that the short term has been increased, it is okay. The long term should not have been increased, the long term should have been kept the same.
Or you are punishing the long term holders. Are you punishing all the long term holders? So, what do you mean? Do you want to make people speculators or do you want people to invest and the country? To build an enterprise, keep it for a long time. I feel that brother, you should speculate too much and make quick moves.
There is no benefit in keeping it for a long term, then you keep moving forward. This is an interesting thing, Vijay Bhai Ramdev ji, there is a little contrast between you both. At this time, you are saying that there is no problem, similarly people keep a shortage on 1. How will you respond to what Ramdev ji is saying?
No, I do not have that much wisdom to refute what Ramdev ji is saying, but personally, my view is that understand, there also you made 15 for 20, here you made 10 for 123, so you are encouraging people to make long term investments because you have reduced the tax, yes, because that too there also you made 15 for 20, here also you made 10 for 123, so look at the ratio, you will have to pay tax, there are 1 lakh 79 thousand people who show income more than one crore in India.
You cannot deny those things inside it, it means that the oil and the oil that is said will come from sesame only, brother, you will earn from the one who is earning it, now in the morning they said Annadata and Pooran madam came in it and they have told those four categories, so who will pay the tax brother, tell me here ultimately that only the one who can pay will pay the tax, the one who can pay does not want to pay, the one who cannot pay does not want to pay, obviously it is so, then how will it come inside the country, ok Madhu brother are you ready to pay a little more tax, Anuj, I will repeat my point, if there is a gain then there is no problem in paying tax, as long as the Indian economy continues to do well, the markets remain vibrant, if we take some of our gain then it is fine, so as long as they take all the necessary steps, brother, this country should keep growing, this economy should keep growing, the companies here should keep growing, I know, in anchor terms, ultimately you can say that as Vijay said, I completely agree with him, ultimately The government will ask for tax from the person who earns, we are not happy with this, seeing that the tax is increasing, but there is no option in that.
If the government has to allocate somewhere else, then taxation will have to be collected from somewhere. And this is the history of this country, not just today, but for the last 20 years, that the burden of taxation always falls more on the two people at the top, Anuj, you can check the history of not just the present but the last 25 years and it is possible that there may not be any change in the future as well.
So, I am making this free that our country should keep doing well, our country should keep moving forward, our corporate sector should keep doing well, then I have no problem in paying 10 to 12, as long as they make guess, I have no problem paying the taxes. Okay, absolutely Atal Vajpayee ji had said it.
You said it in almost Sushil. By the way, Madhu Bhai Ramdev Sir, let's not just talk about taxation. A lot of other things were announced in the budget, some major announcements came on real estate, a little bit, some steps were taken on gold. Overall, how did you see the budget? If we keep this taxation dept aside for once, the fiscal deficit is also 4.9, next year there is talk of 4.5.
Overall, how are you seeing the budget? Look at the budget, he has given everything to everyone. He has tried to address all the segments of the poor class through stand reduction or lower tax rate or stoppage in all ways. If you look at the rest of the budget paper, you will understand more. There are some populist type benefits with wide spread, so it is possible that farmers may get a boost.
If good, a month ago after the election, he had also announced MSP very well for the farmers, that is one of the biggest things. You see, as soon as the speech started, first of all his focus was on the farmers, so in that, the increase in MSP and the 101 benefits given to everyone, he gave a standard reaction.
From that, I feel that there should be some reduction in the wide spread consumption at the bottom of the pyramid or do something in this direction, but the way Extra income has been given to everyone, I think it will also give a little boost to consumption. I want to discuss the topic of consumption with you too, Vijay ji, the Rs.
17500 that remains extra in your hands, especially if you are in the new tax regime, how much will that consumption be seen, as Rahul was also mentioning that look, new employees who are taking up jobs, the government will be seen giving them a minimum of Rs. 1 lakh and a maximum of Rs. 1 lakh separately, they will get a minimum of Rs.
15000, I do not have the data about it and I do not have the knowledge about how much difference it will make exactly, I do not understand the mathematics that Rahul ji told, overall it seems to me that this budget is a very good budget in itself, whether you take it in terms of fiscal deficit or look at it for tourism and now I want to give you another answer to it, I told you that there are two, two, three ways, one for tourism There is medical tourism due to which income increases and there is tourism related to religions, so in this way whatever they and others have taken, like solar, they had already told earlier how many houses they have taken, so all this together is going to consume, my overall feeling is like this, so is it around these themes?
Now I am talking about the investor who is saying that if there is income then tax will also have to be paid, will new money be seen being invested around those same themes, then how are you going to position yourself in terms of new investments, not this budget, new investments, so I would not like to make any new investment, because the market is a bit overheated, even if I have no idea, I will wait a little bit on it, and in this way also I am almost fully invested and I feel that the old themes which were prevalent earlier, those themes, like infrastructure, are going to continue in the future as well, I think manufacturing could be the biggest problem in India.
The one red flag that seems to be there or rather the fear that arises is that of unemployment. The rate of unemployment is 80-90 lakh jobs are needed every year and apart from that, those who are leaving their jobs need jobs back. For this, if you boost the manufacturing sector, then it will benefit from it.
So I think that the old themes, wherever the government was focused, will continue and what they have just said, all the new policies that they have announced are around the same. By the way, perhaps there is news that the indexation benefit on real estate has been abolished. Perhaps that is what I am trying to confirm because if this happens, then this will also be a big negative.
Well, Ramdev Sir has to go. Ramdev Sir, one last question, then what returns should we expect from you in the market now because the last three years have been a golden period. Especially for mid-cap investors, the returns that are coming right now, firstly, the corporate performance is still saying that this year there will be growth in 2015-2017, so that is one thing, secondly, the participation which has been very strong till now, so I do not see much change in the liquidity flow, so the return expectations that were there, in my opinion, this budget will not make any difference, there is nothing like that in your market facing returns, there are some minor changes in taxation, that is your personal after making money in the market, what ever you have to pay, so I do not think that it has impacted the market in any way and since whatever was the expectation from 2015, your annual expectation is doubling in five years, I think that remains an intact situation for five years, this is a formula of Ramdev Sir, which Ramdev Sir is teaching with great passion these days in the Rule of 72.
Actually, I recently went to interview Ramdev Sir. He made me sit in his office and explained the rule to me. After that, he gave me a book, a piece of paper, and a pen. Ramdev Sir said, "Come on, I'm giving you three or four examples. Tell me, by playing this role, in how many years will it double?" Ramdev Sir, by the way, that was a very good experience for me, and we'll cover it thoroughly later.
Thank you very much for joining us today. Ramdev Sir, Madhu Bhai, what would be your message to investors right now? Many people are asking me, should I reduce my investment to zero for once? What would you say, Anuj Bhai? We have had experience in this market for many years. Whenever we get a call that the market is very volatile, reduce it to zero, or sometimes it's bottomed out, sell everything and invest.
All that has n't had that much of an impact on my long-term career. So, I would say, be very careful because the market has given very good returns. There has been a very heavy run up in many sectors and many individual companies, so this time I would say that there is an opportunity to pick shares very carefully and wherever you have seen extraordinary gains, where you feel that the valuation of the companies has really gone out of the way, I think you should sell fearlessly so that if you sell and the price goes up, you will always feel that oh my god, I have sold this and the price of this has gone up, you know, now we did not get it written from anywhere that we will buy at the bottom and sell at the top, as long as our returns have been made, wherever the returns have been very good, I am telling you what I am doing myself, Anuj, I am selling shares also and but I am also open that if I see any real competition opportunity, I will not buy it because the index 24500 has become very big, if I find any competition opportunity and if I have my own money in the long term, then I I am open to make investment but I am a very careful investor at this point of time that is all I would say ok and brother thank you very much, in the meantime please bring DLF once thank you so much that one thing I was saying is that the indexation benefit has been removed after that you see how it is, in retail everyone wants to become Vijay Kidiya what would be your message no my message is the same Anj bhai invest after thinking carefully don't comment on rumours waste time this is a business of knowledge and patience learn from experience and do the best the simple message is brother if you are here for long then there is no point in taking and the thing you said that people tell you that yes I should get out right now sell everything and get out, in my 30 years of history there was not a single day when I ever got out after selling everything rather at 99 times I was invested at 100 99 so saying this if you leave the pitch if you run away or get out you leave it and get out If you cannot score a century then your chapter of earning money is over, at least you will stay put, the market will also fall, there is a rising economy brother, there is a rising stock market, there is a rising economy, chances will come when you are standing on the pitch and playing, if you do not hit fours or sixes then keep taking single runs, if you do not hit a single run then just stand there and keep playing defense, you do not want to lose a wicket, basically if you lose a wicket then leave the pitch and go to the stadium, your chapter is over, your history is over, that means you have become history, you have become history, so stay put here, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, thank you very much Vijay Bhai, thank you so much, I have not taken a break for a long time and see, I also have to run the channel, so I will take a small break and come back.
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