저자: RamdevAgrawal · 외국인
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2024년 7월 예산 후 자본이득세 인상 논쟁. 장기·단기 양도세 인상에 대해 부유층·투자 위축 우려가 나왔고, 정부의 세수 필요성이 강조됨. 예산은 농민 MSP·소비 진작 효과 긍정 평가. 시장은 지수 과열로 신규 매수는 신중, 일부 고평가 종목은 매도 권고. Vijay Kedia는 장기 보유·홀딩을 강조하며 기존 테마(인프라·제조업) 지속을 전망. 명시된 개별 종목 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
यह पूरा ट्रांसक्रिप्ट अंग्रेज़ी में है, इसलिए मैं इसे हिंदी/हिंग्लिश में नहीं बल्कि अंग्रेज़ी में ही साफ़ और पढ़ने योग्य रूप में संपादित कर रहा हूँ। अनुवाद नहीं, संपादन: स्वचालित कैप्शन की गलतियाँ सुधारीं, दोहराव और फिलर हटाए, और बातचीत को अनुच्छेदों में बाँटा।
Ramdev ji, good afternoon. We have Ramdev ji with us right now, along with Madhusudan Kela ji and Vijay Kedia ji, so all the market experts are with us. Ramdev ji, you run a mutual fund and a broker, and you are a successful investor yourself. How are you looking at today's budget, especially the changes made in capital gains taxation? According to the buzz in the market, there will be about 25 to 30 percent more taxation in all three categories, be it long term, short term or speculative. So in the long term, your 10 percent has become 12.5 percent, and in the short term it has become 15 to 20 percent. I don't know the exact big number, but it could be from 50 thousand to a lakh crore. In which direction is this signaling? Because of too much speculation, it seems they are saying that you have earned a lot of money in equity, so you should give us some of it as well. I don't think that is rational, because they should encourage this particular asset class. Let's say you increased the long-term speculative rate from 10 percent to 12.5 percent. I think their thinking is that if you have earned a lot of money, you should spend a small portion of it.
I don't think the logic should be that we disincentivize investing in equities. I do understand why the short-term rate was raised, since that is the speculative rate, and in any case you pay the full tax on it, so there is no change for them there. But Ramdev ji, you are saying that raising the short term is okay, but the long term should not have been increased. It should have been kept the same, because you are punishing long-term holders. If you punish all long-term holders, what do you mean? Do you want people to be speculators, or do you want them to invest and hold for a long time to build the country and create enterprises? It feels like you want people to speculate and make quick moves, so that there is no benefit in holding for the long term, and then you keep increasing the tax.
This is an interesting point. Vijay bhai, there is a bit of a contrast between you two. Ramdev ji is saying there is a problem with this, while you seem to think otherwise. How will you respond to what Ramdev ji is saying?
No, I do not have that much wisdom to refute what Ramdev ji is saying. But personally, my view is this: they made the short term 15 to 20 percent, and the long term 10 to 12.5 percent. So you are still encouraging people to make long-term investments, because the long-term tax is lower. Look at the ratio. Then there are a thousand people in India who show income of more than one crore. You cannot deny those things. Those who talk about water and oil, the oil will come only from sesame. Brother, you will earn from the one who is earning. This morning they spoke about the annadata, and Poonam madam came in and listed those four categories. So who will pay the tax? Tell me, ultimately only those who can pay will pay the tax. Those who can pay do not want to pay, and those who cannot pay do not want to pay either. Obviously it is so. Then how will the country's revenue come in?
Okay, Madhu brother, are you ready to pay a little more tax?
Anuj, I will repeat my point. If there is a gain, there is no problem in paying tax. As long as the Indian economy continues to do well and the markets remain vibrant, if we take something from our gains, that is fine. As long as they take all the necessary steps, this country should keep growing, this economy should keep growing, and the companies here should keep growing. Ultimately, you should do as Vijay said. I completely agree with him.
Ultimately, the government will ask for tax from whoever earns. We are not happy about taxes going up, but there is no other option. If the government has to allocate money somewhere else, the taxes will have to be collected from somewhere. This is the history of this country, not just today but for the last 20 years: the people at the top, the two richest groups, always bear the greater burden of taxation.
Anuj, check the history not just of the present but of the last 25 years. It is possible there may not be any change in the future. So I am saying this so that our country continues to do well, progresses, and our corporate sector keeps doing well. Then I have no problem paying 10 to 12 percent. As long as they make gains, I have no problem paying taxes. Absolutely. Atal Bihari Vajpayee ji had said something like this.
By the way, Madhu bhai and Ramdev sir, let's not talk only about taxation. A lot was announced in the budget. Some major announcements were made on real estate, and some steps were taken on gold. Overall, how did you see the budget? Set the tax disappointment aside for a moment. The fiscal deficit is at 4.9 percent, and next year there is talk of 4.5 percent. Overall, how are you seeing the budget?
Look at the budget. He has tried to give something to everyone and address all the segments, whether it is people in the lower strata through rate reductions, lower tax rates, or stoppage. If you read the rest of the budget paper, you will understand more. It is a bit of a popsicle-type approach, with a wide spread of benefits, so it could be a consumption scheme. A month ago, after the elections, he had announced the MSP increase for farmers very well. That is one of the biggest things. As soon as the speech started, the focus was first on farmers, so the MSP increase and the benefits given to everyone drew a strong reaction. I think it is a wide spread rather than a consumption scheme at the bottom of the pyramid. There was talk of some reduction in GST or something similar, but the extra income given to everyone should give a little boost to consumption.
Vijay ji, I want to discuss consumption with you too. The 7,500 rupees that stays extra in your hands, especially if you are in the new tax regime, how much of it will be seen going into consumption? Rahul was also mentioning that new employees who take up jobs will get a separate government payment of a minimum of 15,000. How much of a change will this make? It is not consumption, and I do not know how much difference it will make. I actually do not understand the mathematics Rahul ji described. Overall, I feel this budget is a very good budget in itself, whether you look at it through the fiscal deficit or through tourism. I have two or three ways to answer that. There is medical tourism, which increases the country's income, and there is religious tourism. Whatever they have taken up, like solar, and the number of houses they had already mentioned earlier, all of this together will drive consumption. Overall, that is how I feel.
Is it around these themes? Now I am talking about the investor who says that if there is income, tax will have to be paid. Will new money be seen being invested around these same themes? And how are you going to position yourself in terms of new investments? If not new investments, then I would not like to make any new investment, because the market is a little overheated. Even if I have no idea, I will wait a little. I am almost fully invested, and I feel the old themes that were going on earlier, like infrastructure, will continue in the future too. Manufacturing is going to continue in my view. The biggest problem in India, the red flag or fear, is unemployment. Every year, 80 to 90 lakh people enter the job market, and apart from that, those who lose their jobs need them back. If you boost the manufacturing sector, it will help with this. So I think the old themes the government has focused on will continue, and the new policies they have announced are around the same things the government has been saying all along. We are fine with that.
By the way, perhaps there is news that the indexation benefit on real estate has been abolished. I am trying to confirm this now, because if it happens, it will be a big negative as well.
Okay, I have to go. Ramdev sir, one last question to you: what returns should we expect from the market from here? The last three years have been a golden period, especially for mid-cap investors. Corporate performance is also indicating earnings growth of 15 to 17 percent this year, and the participation so far has been very strong, so I do not see much change in the liquidity flow. The return expectations we had, I think this budget will not change them. The changes in taxation affect your personal returns after you make money in the market, so I do not think it has impacted the market in any way. Since our annual expectation of doubling every five years remains intact, Ramdev sir has a formula he has been teaching with great passion these days: the Rule of 72.
I actually went to interview Ramdev sir last night. He made me sit in his cabin and explained the rule to me. Then he gave me a book, paper and a pen, and said, "Now I'll give you three or four examples, and you tell me by applying this rule, in how many years it will double." Ramdev sir, that was a very good experience for me, and we will cover it well in future. Thank you very much for joining us today.
Ramdev sir, Madhu bhai, what would be your message to investors right now? Many people are asking me whether they should reduce their investments to zero for now.
Anuj bhai, we have experienced this market for many years. Whenever we take a call that the market has jumped a lot and should be reduced to zero, or that it has bottomed out and we should sell everything and invest, that was never enough in my long-term career. If there has been no impact, I would say this very carefully: the market has given very good returns, and there has been a huge run-up in many sectors and individual companies. So this time I would say there is an opportunity to pick shares very carefully. Wherever you have made extraordinary gains, and where you feel the valuations have really gone out of line, I think you should sell wisely. You will always feel, "Oh my god, I sold this and its price went up." We never got it written anywhere that we will buy only at the bottom and sell only at the top. As long as our returns have been made, wherever the returns have been very good, I am telling you what I am doing myself: I am selling some shares. But I am also open: if I see a real opportunity in a company, I will buy it, even though the index has grown very big, to 24,500. If I find an opportunity in a company, and I have a long-term view and my own money, I am open to investing. But at this point I am a very careful investor. That is all I would say.
Okay, brother, thank you very much. One thing I was saying: the indexation benefit has been removed. After that, you see how this stock has traded at this time.
Vijay bhai, some last words. Our viewers follow you closely, and you have a huge following among retail investors. Everyone wants to become Vijay Kedia. What would be your message?
My message is the same, Anuj bhai: invest wisely, don't waste time on rumours, learn from experience, and do your best. The simple message is that there is no point in investing a lot here and then, when people tell you to leave right now, selling everything and walking away. In my 30 years of history, I have never seen such a day, and I never sold and exited completely. At the time of 99, I was invested at 100. If you leave the pitch, if you run away, you cannot score a century, and then your chapter of earning money is over. At least stay. The market will fall at times, but there is a rising economy and a rising stock market. Whenever there are chances, you need to stay on the pitch and play. If you do not hit fours or sixes, keep taking singles. If you do not get a run, stand still and keep playing defense. You do not want to lose your wicket. If you lose your wicket, leave the pitch, and go back to the stadium, your chapter is over. Ha ha, your history is over, meaning you have become history. So stay here, in every single situation. This is the law of time. Stay in every situation. This is the law of time. Thank you very much.
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