저자: RamdevAgrawal/진행Anuj · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 7월 예산 발표 후 자본이득세 인상(단기·장기·투기 모두 25~30% 인상 언급)이 시장 심리에 부담이며, 세수 규모는 크다고 평가. 장기 보유자 징벌 우려 제기. 예산은 농민·소비 부양 측면에서 포퓰리즘적이나 시장 수익률 전망은 바뀌지 않는다고 봄. 인도 시장은 과열 상태이고, 이미 높은 수익을 낸 종목은 과감히 매도하되 전면 현금화는 하지 않고 계속 투자 유지(99~100% 투자 상태) 입장.
다듬은 글
All the stalwarts are with us right now, please put them all in the spotlight, Ramdev ji, because you run a mutual fund, a brokerage, and are a successful investor yourself, how are you viewing today's budget, especially the tinkering that has been done in capital gains taxation. I think that based on the current market sentiment, there will be 25 to 30 percent more taxation in all three categories, be it long term, short term, or speculative.
So, I think the tax mobilization from the market is quite big. I don't know the number, but it will be a very good number, it may even reach 500 to lakh crores. In this, where is the signaling that there will be a trend towards highly speculative non-risky assets, will there be a growing trend again?
Yes, it seems that equity means they are saying that you have earned a lot of money in equity, so you should keep giving some to us as well, I mean, I don't think there is any rational Because they should encourage this particular asset class, so let's say you have set 10% in the long term speculative, which means that I think your thinking is that if you have earned a lot of money, then you should invest a little part of it with some portion of gains.
I don't think the logic is that we should disincentivize investing in equities, but basically I understand the logic of why the long term capital gains tax was increased so much. Short term, I understand that short term speculative is the major portion of the gains in the market place. So Ramdev ji, are you saying that the short term has been increased, it is okay, the long term should not have been increased, the long term should have been kept the same, or are you punishing the long term holders?
No, you are punishing all the long term holders, so what do you mean, do you want to make people speculators or do you want people to invest and build the country, to build enterprises for the long term? I feel like you should speculate more and do the rounds as quickly as possible, so that there is no benefit for you in keeping it for the long term, then you keep increasing it, this is an interesting thing, Vijay Bhai Ramdev ji, there is a bit of a contrast between you both, right now you are saying that there is no problem, similarly people keep missing out on 1, how will you respond to what Ramdev ji is saying, no, I do n't have that much wisdom to refute what Ramdev ji is saying, but personally my view is that understand, there also you made 15 for 20 in the short term, here you made 10 for 123, so you are encouraging people to make long term investments, because you have reduced the tax, yes, because there also you made 15 for 20, here also you made 10 for 123, so look at the ratio, you will have to pay tax, there are 1 lakh 79 thousand people who show income of more than one crore, you cannot deny those things in India.
You can, it means that when we talk about oil and oil, oil will come from sesame only, right brother, you will earn from what is being earned. Now in the morning they said Annadata and Puran madam came in it and they have told about four categories, so who will pay the tax brother, tell me here ultimately, only those who can pay will pay the tax, those who can pay do not want to pay, those who cannot pay do not want to pay, obviously, then how will it come inside the country, okay Madhu brother, are you ready to pay a little more tax, Anuj, I will repeat my point, if there is a gain, then there is no problem in paying tax, as long as the Indian economy continues to do well, the markets remain vibrant, if we take some of our gain, then it is fine, so as long as they take all the necessary steps, brother, this country should keep growing, this economy should keep growing, the companies here should keep growing, I know, in anchor terms, ultimately, as Vijay said, I completely agree with him, ultimately, the government taxes only on what one earns.
She will ask for it, we are not happy about it, seeing that the tax is increasing, but there is no option in that. If the government has to allocate somewhere else, then taxation will have to be collected from somewhere. And this is the history of this country, not just today, but for the last 20 years, that the two people at the top, who are the two rich people, always bear the greater burden of taxation.
Anuj, you should check the history of not just the present but the last 25 years and it is possible that there may not be any change in the future as well. So, I am thinking that if our country keeps doing well, our country keeps moving forward, our corporate sector keeps doing well, then I have no problem in paying 10% to 12%.
As long as I make guess, I have no problem paying the taxes. Okay, absolutely Atal Vajpayee ji had said it. You said it in almost Sushil. By the way, Madhu Bhai Ramdev Sir, let's not just talk about taxation. A lot of other things were announced in the budget. Some major announcements were made on real estate.
A little bit on gold. Some steps were taken overall. How did you see the budget this year? If we keep the taxation dept aside for once, the fiscal deficit is also being talked about at 4.9 next year and 4.5 next year. How are you looking at the overall situation, look at the budget, he has given everything to everyone, he has tried to address all the segments by way of tax reduction or lower tax rate or stoppage in all the ways, if you look at the rest of the budget paper, you will understand more, it is a bit populist, there are quite wide spread benefits, so it is possible that farmers may get a boost, if good, a month ago after the election, he had also announced MSP very well for the farmers, that is one of the biggest things, you see, as soon as the speech started, first of all his focus was on farmers, so the increase in MSP and the 5 to 10 10 thousand rupees given to everyone, he gave a strong reaction to it, I feel that if wide spread consumption is fine in the bottom of the pyramid, then do such direct consumption or do something in this direction, but in the way extra income It has been given in everyone's hands, I think it will give a little boost to the consumption as well.
I want to discuss the topic of consumption with you too, Vijay ji. The Rs. 17,500 that remains extra in your hands, especially if you are in the new tax regime, how much will it be seen consuming? What Rahul was also mentioning, look, new employees who are taking up jobs, the government will be seen giving them a minimum of Rs.
1 lakh and a maximum of Rs. 1 lakh separately. They will get a minimum of Rs. 15,000. How much will this be a change in the consumption side? I do n't have the data for this and I don't have the knowledge about it, how much difference will it make exactly. I don't understand the mathematics that Rahul ji told me.
Overall, I feel that this budget is a very good budget in itself, whether you take it in terms of fiscal deficit or look at it for tourism. Now, I want to give you another answer to it. I told you that there are two, two, three ways, one for tourism. Medical tourism takes place, which increases the country's income.
And there's tourism related to religions. So, whatever they and others have taken, like solar, they've already mentioned how many houses they've bought. All this combined is going to lead to consumption. Overall, I feel like this. So, is it around these themes? Now, I'm talking about the investor who is saying, 'Okay, if you're earning, you'll have to pay taxes.' Will new money be invested around those same themes?
How are you going to position yourself in terms of new investments? If not new investments in this budget, I would n't want to make any new investments. The market is a bit overheated. Even if I have a new idea, I'll wait a little bit. And I'm almost fully invested. I feel that the old themes that have been going on before are going to continue, like infrastructure.
Manufacturing, I think, is the biggest problem in India. Maybe the one red flag that seems to be there or should I say a fear is that of unemployment. The rate of unemployment is 80-90 lakh jobs are needed every year and apart from that, those who are leaving their jobs need jobs back. So for this, if you boost the manufacturing sector, then it will benefit from it.
So I think the old themes, wherever the government was focused, will continue and whatever they have told now, all the new policies that they have announced are around the same. By the way, perhaps there is a news that the indexation benefit on real estate has been abolished. Perhaps that is what I am trying to confirm because if this happens then this will also be a big negative.
Well, Ramdev Sir has to go. Ramdev Sir, one last question, then what returns should we expect from you in the market from here because in the last three years So, it has been a golden period, especially for mid-cap investors. The returns that are coming now, firstly, the corporate performance is also saying that there will be growth in 2015-2017 this year, so one thing is that the participation which has been there till now is very strong, so I do not see much change in the liquidity flow, so the return expectations which were there, in my opinion, this budget will not make any difference, there is nothing in it that will make any difference to your market facing returns, there are some minor changes in taxation, that is your personal after making money in the market, what ever you have to pay, so I do not think that it has impacted the market in any way and since whatever was the expectation from 2015, your annual expectation is doubling in five years, I think that remains an intact situation for five years, this is a formula of Ramdev Sir, which Ramdev Sir is teaching with great passion these days, Rule of 72 I actually went to interview Ramdev sir last time and Ramdev sir made me sit in his office and he explained the rule to me after that he gave me a book and a paper and a pen and after that Ramdev sir said come on now I am giving you three or four examples and tell me by playing this role that in how many years will it double so Ramdev sir very well that was a very good experience for me and we will cover it well in future thank you very much for joining us today Ramdev sir Madhu bhai what would be your message to the investors right now because many people are asking me question that should I reduce my investment to zero for once what would you say Anuj bhai we have experienced this for many years here in this market whenever we take a call that the market is very high make it completely to zero or sometimes it has hit a bottom sell everything and invest all that has not had that much impact on my short term career so I would say that be very careful because the market has changed a lot It has given good returns.
There has been a huge run-up in many sectors and many individual companies. So this time I would say that there is an opportunity to pick shares very carefully and wherever you have made extraordinary gains, where you feel that the valuation of the companies has really gone out of the way, I think you should sell them fearlessly so that if you sell and the price goes up, you will always feel that oh my god, I have sold this and the price of this one has gone up.
You know, now we did not get it written from anywhere that we will buy at the bottom and sell at the top only. In the long run, our returns have been made. Wherever the returns have been very good, I am telling you what I am doing myself, Anuj. I am selling shares as well and but I am also open that if I see any real comparative opportunity, I will not buy it because the index 24500 has grown a lot.
If I find any very comparative opportunity and if my long term, my own If you have Rs. 100 crore then I am open to make investment but I am a very careful investor at this point of time that is all I would say ok brother thank you very much, in fact please bring DLF once thank you so much that one thing I was saying is that indexation benefit has been removed after that you see how it is, in retail everyone wants Vijay Kidiya to become what would be your message my message is the same Anj bhai invest wisely don't waste time commenting on rumours this is a business of knowledge and patience learn from experience and do the best the simple message is brother there is no point in investing much here and what you said that people tell you that yes I should get out right now sell everything and get out, in my 30 years of history there was not a single day when I ever got out completely rather at 99% time I have been invested at 100% 99% so saying this if you leave the pitch and if you run away or leave, you leave the money and get out If you cannot score a century then your chapter of earning money is over, at least you will stay put, the market will also fall, there is a rising economy brother, there is a rising stock market, there is a rising economy, chances will come when you are standing on the pitch and playing, if you do not hit fours or sixes then keep taking single runs, if you do not hit a run then just stand there and keep playing defense, you do not want to lose a wicket, basically if you lose a wicket and leave the pitch and go to the stadium, your chapter is over, your history is over, that means you have become history, you have become history, so stay put here, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, stay put in all circumstances, this is the law of time, thank you very much Vijay Bhai, thank you so much, I have not taken a break for a long time and see, I also have to run the channel, so I will take a small break and come back.
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