저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장은 침체 속 반등 후 재하락(bull trap) 가능성이 있다는 시각. 9월 CPI 등 인플레 재발 및 소비자 신용·주택자산 위축 리스크를 언급하나, 소비자 부채상환비율은 낮은 수준이라 위기는 과장일 수 있다고 봄. 개인투자자 순매수 지속. 결론적으로 하락 시 매수 기회로 보고 장기적으로 미국 주식 보유(long America)를 권함.
다듬은 글
oh man come on cineworld's going bankrupt bed bath and beyond's plummeting as ryan cohen sells apparently the housing market is in a housing recession now and all of a sudden the market looks like it might be snapping its rally and turning red today now hopefully the red doesn't last but we should talk about some catalysts and some things that are going on including is retail finally capitulating after all we got a ton of options that expire today in fact over a trillion dollars worth of options expired today and boy oh boy if you think that a trillion dollars of options means a volatility you're right all right folks let's get into what the heck is going on so first of all it's really important to remember that way back in march and february we reviewed this particular chart here now this chart looks a little complicated but basically what it says is when the market's doing poopy doopy if there is a recession you get the black line if there's no recession you get the gray line now unfortunately a feature of the black line is this three bear market rally bull trap it basically means at the circles the bulls are like that's it we hit the bottom let's get in and then it goes even lower and unfortunately since we technically are in a recession there's a very good argument that uh oh we might actually have just another bear market rally on our hands in fact 55 percent of you according to my twitter poll the other day said yeah no kevin this is just another bear market rally this is not the sign of the bottom anyway you can follow me on twitter at realme kevin but it's a little concerning when you actually line it up to what's going on on the nasdaq because in the nasdaq here you see a triple bottom over here on the yellow line that led to our first bear market rally which then led to a new low after that now we're potentially in the second bull trap and that means we potentially have one more to go unfortunately lower now this is not a guarantee this is just based on one particular chat from bloomberg and quite frankly there's a super bear over at bloomberg that even posted something kind of bullish he posted the following it's mr macroman and posted that well dang after the s p falls more than seven percent in one month but then recovers more than seven percent the next month the average returns after the war era were generally positive in fact the three six uh let me make sure i got straight yeah oh sorry the one month three month six months and 12 month returns were positive in all of the instances that i am highlighting in green here and so you know it's on one hand you got a chart from bloomberg that says you know this could be another bull trap and we could be facing some real issues and on the other hand you got this chart here that suggests well you know potentially we could actually be looking at some really nice and juicy returns one month three month 12 mon six months and 12 months out okay fine so you got information on both sides let's just talk practically for a moment what led to the plummet of the last bear market rally why did we hit a new low let's place that or explain that very very simply so first of all we crashed and then we had our bear market rally but why did we come off of that why did we crash after that bear market rally only to go down lower well the reason in my opinion had to do with the fact that inflation didn't actually peak in march see in march we got a peak of inflation and in april that inflation report went down which is really really interesting because if you write march here and april here you could also say the same thing about june potentially being a higher peak and july showing a slight decline that led a lot of folks to get excited in july just like kind of in april but the problem was when we ended up getting our next cpi release in may what ended up happening we actually ended up getting a higher level of inflation and that same thing could play out now that is when we get the august report which comes out in september for cpi we could end up seeing another oopsy-doopsies certainly if inflation misses we've got a lot more pain ahead of us but usually we've got to establish so much pain that it's new pain and it's pain that we haven't experienced before see the stock market likes to trend up if the stock market is just receiving the same information it previously had received technically it shouldn't have to go lower but there's something big that could end up pushing the market lower and you gotta know about it but first a message from our sponsor moomoo now for a message from our sponsor see my biggest pet peeve of all these ultra simple trading apps is that they sacrifice all the relevant information and analytics for ease of use but thankfully today we've got a sponsor that's given us the information we need back and still is super simple and easy to use check out moomoo folks moomoo is an advanced one-stop trading app that makes it easy for traders to do everything they need to trade stocks mumu helps you monitor market movements perform deep technical analysis quickly screen for the stocks that meet your criteria and provides a community where traders can exchange ideas allows you to share and discuss your trades with over 18 million other users and get this they let you trade for free during their extended trading hours between 4 am to 8 pm this feature is especially useful when companies announce earnings after the market close or before the market open or when activity in foreign markets impacts united states stock prices take advantage of this offer to get up to 11 free stocks including a free share of bank of america so the big thing most folks who are bearish are talking about is that the consumer is standing on their last legs even though their personal savings rate has actually increased in the second quarter in all income groups their incomes have gone up people's incomes have gone up their savings have gone up in the second quarter even though that is happening there is the belief that consumers are taking on way too much debt and here is a chart of total consumer credit owned and they or essentially owed back to the bank right this is a potential problem because you can see we're at all-time highs and consumer credit is exploding somewhat implying that maybe consumers are actually in distress maybe the reason bank balances are going up is solely because they're taking on more credit however we have another interesting phenomenon that is usually overlooked by the bears and this is when we actually take our debt payments and basically divide them by the amount of our extra income that we have just to see how much of a burden that debt is and when we look at that chart we actually get something that looks quite motivating the debt service payments for individuals as a percentage of disposable income are at relatively low levels certainly levels that are lower than anything we've seen since 2016 but not quite as low as levels that we saw in 2010 to 2015 but we're at decently low levels and we haven't seen this level skyrocket to levels that are higher than anything that they've ever been at before so sure maybe total debt is increasing but if people have more disposable income still today because they're getting maybe paid more at their job maybe the consumer could hold up just fine and maybe we won't actually end up with the kind of crisis that a lot of folks think is coming especially to the stock market and the end of this bear market rally now there are other catalysts as well that could totally make this market turn one of the most popular catalysts that folks like to pay attention to is what is retail doing and the fact of the matter is they ain't capitulating retail is not given up retail is diamond handing and staying strong in fact if anything flows by retail according to vandertrak are increasing and not decreasing this is a sign that retail is not capitulating retail is not paper handing retail is staying in this market and they continue to be net buyers in fact vandertrak tells us that there has not been a single day that retail has been a net seller in this market nope they have had zero days of net selling in this drawdown cycle the net buy is about 1.1 billion dollars in uh in any previous session and that really only leaves the one catalyst which mostly affects housing and that is is the federal reserve's path on interest rates right now markets mostly expect to the tune of 65 percent that the federal reserve is going to come out and do a 50 basis point hike well we've got another month to go before the fed actually comes out and tells us ultimately what they decide to do and between now and then we're going to get a lot of housing data and this housing data is very fascinating because there are a lot of folks that say if housing wealth goes down we could actually see a real slowdown in spending and then we could actually get our earnings recession look at wayfair look at kohl's look at target they're struggling with the consumer yeah maybe tesla and apple are still doing well today but maybe they won't in three months so what is my summary out of all of this and sort of what's my thought and what would i be thinking about doing well first of all it's important to remember that i'm not a financial advisor i'm not certainly your financial advisor i'm just a guy who makes videos on youtube i like to consider myself an educator or a teacher of perspective but i do have a diamond hand coffee mug with a straw in it and uh i'm wearing a t-shirt so um take it all with a grain of salt but anyway here's my thought i think for most folks any kind of sell-off in this market especially if we get back to nasdaq around 318 320 levels is an opportunity to buy in to march lows and april lows and lows that we've recently fortunately come out of yeah we did have lower lows in june but i think it would take a lot of substantial pain for us to really revisit those lows we had new pain the last time around inflation didn't peak on us that could happen again we could again be cheering an inflation peak commodity prices could skyrocket as there's another energy crisis for whatever reason one hurricane and oil prices skyrocket again and there goes inflation again owner's equivalent rents for real estate could finally catch up there are a lot of things that could push this market lower but personally i see all of it as long america get in on the best companies that you believe in stay away from the momentum gamble other than with little bits of money that you're willing to lose otherwise go long america whether that's a basket of index funds one index fund or some of your favorite companies hopefully you're somewhat diversified but the biggest thing for me is get in the market not financial advice so that way hopefully if the stock market does recover at the same time as real estate stays in the gutters you'll be able to buy real estate and remember folks i've got a coupon expiring august 26th for stocks and more check them out link down below
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