저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주식 시장의 단기 소음보다 부동산을 장기 보유하는 것이 다수의 백만장자를 만드는 가장 확실한 길이라고 주장. 저금리 5% 계약금으로 주택을 매입해 거주 후 임대 전환, 자산가치 상승과 대출 상환으로 자산을 불리는 방식을 강조. 과거 매도를 가장 큰 실수로 회고하며 시청자에게 부동산 진입을 권유. 주식 관련 발언은 대부분 일반론이며 특정 종목에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here boy oh boy there is so much debate over the stock market and i will tell you there is one lesson it doesn't even have to do with a stock market but that can make you a multi-millionaire and that lesson is what we're going to talk about in this video it's probably the greatest lesson that i've ever learned it is what made me a multi-millionaire before i ever even started making youtube videos you know i think it's easy to look at youtubers and go oh yeah okay they just made it to be a millionaire because they make youtube videos and they get a bunch of subscribers or whatever it's not the case sure that's helped after the fact but all that did was change a multi-millionaire number to another multi-millionaire like whatever that doesn't matter the reason i want to share this story and we're going to do it in sort of segue with kevin style is because i i think it's so important that it's just a raw chat between you and i because really this is the most important lesson that i ever learned and i owe it to make it super clear to you what that lesson is so first i want to talk about what it's not and that's stocks i have invested in stocks since 2008 i've studied stocks and financial reports since 2008 i remember in 2011 sitting in escrow on my first home and standing there looking at a stack of the facebook earnings way back then thinking hmm facebook or apple while i'm trying to fix up a property right so like stocks what i've learned what's fascinating about stocks is you can have the best fundamental analysis in the world and be wrong in the short term long term usually fundamental analysis plays out unless of course the fundamentals change now one thing to always remember about real estate analysis is the fact that with a real estate analysis you can actually know that homes are under market value for example if all of the comps in a neighborhood are selling for four hundred thousand dollars and you can buy a fixer-upper for two hundred fifty thousand dollars and you don't have any kind of weird market movements where the market is sliding down and comps you're looking at are like a year old or whatever if you're looking at recent comps and you could get a property that's a fixer well under market value and the difference is less than the cost to fix up well then you're getting a good fundamental deal let's make that clear if you need to take twenty thousand dollars to fix up that 250 k house and now it's worth 450 just like all the others in the neighborhood or four hundred thousand dollars whatever now you've profited not 150 but 150 minus 20 for fix-up it's 130 000 of a net worth boost which you can extract tax-free via refinance this is why people always talk about the burst strategy that of course is buy rehabilitate rent refinance repeat it's basically taking wedge deals extracting the cash cash free from those deals because you're buying properties under market value and the reason you can do that fundamentally in real estate is because people overvalue how much work you actually have to do to get a property ready for rent and that means you constantly have to be paying attention to stocks and one of the difficult things with stocks is that you don't actually have control over the companies right so you're trying to analyze fundamentals on companies where corporate executives are actually trying to appease shareholders for the short term so for example in this morning's earnings call with target course members and i reviewed it and going into detail on it we notice how target basically when you read in between the lines tells us they don't have earnings power anymore or pricing power anymore and instead they need to cut their investments on consumer discretionary items and go really really heavy on food and value items because people are transitioning to value and they're having trouble selling these discretionary products but they don't tell you that bluntly they kind of try to say oh we're getting more traffic and our focus is more traffic and our customers are so happy with what we're doing you know we had too many employees getting distracted by too much inventory and then you look at the cash flow statement you're like no you had a negative operating cash flow because you bought too much inventory in in the first three months of the year you guys done screwed up yep you get executives who essentially try to manipulate that information so that hopefully it doesn't have as bad of an impact on the actual stock performance in the short term and that's something that i also hate about stocks because in the short term you get so much uh divisiveness in stocks it's almost worse than politics it's oh look here's some data that's negative oh you're a fudster oh that's stupid you're not paying attention to this or you're misleading with this or oh here's data that's uh bullish oh you're a flip-flopper oh you're uh you're missing this oh you're not considering china oh my gosh this is all terrible it's it's you can never say anything right and so what's fascinating is i've noticed that most people because of all this noise don't actually become multi-millionaires from stocks they might be multi-millionaires who invest in stocks and over the long run if you return and compound seven percent annually you know that's pretty amazing once you're already a multi-millionaire but it doesn't do you much good if you have a portfolio of say twenty thousand dollars or fifty thousand dollars it really does you little good and and it's not going to get you to multi-millionaire status uh unless you have serious like cojones of steel to get through all the noise and the craziness like the noise is there if you want to listen to it but the more you listen to the noise the more you tend to make portfolio mistakes because again stocks behave irrationally in in the short term you know you could have an amazing company with phenomenal fundamentals do terribly in the short term uh and an amazing company with great fundamentals get overvalued in the short term it's phenomenal so what's the big lesson the big lesson i noticed goes back to the first lesson that i ever learned about investing and it has to do with the fact that the things around me are actually what create millionaires see the new york times found before the pandemic and it's even more true now after the pandemic that the greatest wealth builder has always been real estate and that's actually why we have massive gender wealth gaps that's why blacks are less wealthy than whites for example because whites own more homes and that probably has to do with decades of redlining and discrimination and worse job opportunities and worse qualifying opportunities uh but you know this isn't designed to be a political video the point is that the average net worth of a homeowner is in excess of two hundred thousand dollars whereas the average net worth of a tenant somewhere around five thousand five hundred dollars and uh we're coming up on a property that uh i specifically want to drive by because i feel like i made a mistake with this property uh and and i i regret that mistake because i have these fond memories of going through that property when jack was my son my first son who's about to turn seven in about 20 days uh actually in about 15 days my first son we walked through the property when he was two years and 10 months old and this was a property that i made a big mistake on and there's a big lesson to learn from this property because see with real estate you don't have to play the noise of the stock market you can you can sell real estate which i don't recommend you do now i i sold some of my real estate but that's because i'm starting a real estate company and i'm actually going to be going larger into real estate so even though i might do something personally that's not what i recommend i don't recommend people copying me because i don't think other people are first of all are starting with millions of dollars in the position i am right now or or you know creating a real estate startup generally i don't recommend selling real estate and that's because real estate is a perfect way to become a multi-millionaire in fact one of my employees is a w-2 employee and they continue to buy real estate every chance they get they buy real estate they will end up being a multi-millionaire working for me with no stress of the stock market or the noise of the stock market and here's the house the house is right here this particular house is a house that i bought and i completely remodeled see it's got my famous diamond uh driveway uh those are our colors the exterior colors we didn't do all this landscaping here but we did those windows we did the wood repair work on the outside uh we did the roof and i'm going to keep going here because i don't want to be awkward and filming in front of what's now somebody else's home but the lesson of that home is one that we can apply to everyone and it's a mistake that i made 2018.
anyone could have bought that house uh in fact that's exactly what these folks did with five percent down for six hundred thousand dollars now a lot of folks are gonna hear six hundred thousand dollars and think what that little house six hundred thousand dollars that's insane that's because you live in stupid california that's that's crazy you know people make fun of california all the time and again this isn't a political video i happen to live in the best weather that exists in the country which only a small sliver of the country can actually have it's not my fault that the weather looks like this and it's 65 to 75 degrees every single day all year long and it barely rains here which also causes water problems but then again we have an idiotic governor that doesn't do anything about that that's why i ran against him for governor but oh well that's beside the point what's more important is that anybody could have bought that property with five percent down and you might think okay five percent down but kevin and this is what's so fascinating about real estate is the objections immediately come up but kevin then you have to pay mortgage insurance well that property with five percent down you would have borrowed 95 of that property's value five percent down represents thirty thousand dollars you didn't have to fix it up because i already fixed it up i sold that property i sold that property to somebody who put five percent down they spent forty thousand dollars to control that property that property today is worth eight hundred thousand dollars now while i don't believe that's sustainable and sure real estate prices can and they will go down in the future in fact we might be on the precipice of real estate prices going down uh you know maybe even as much as 20 even if it goes down 20 from 800k it's still worth 640 000 which what's incredible about that is if they bought the property for six hundred thousand dollars and it's worth 640 and they put 40k into it down payment and closing costs they basically spent no money on the property they owned the property essentially for free now of course the beautiful thing about real estate is there's very little debate somebody who holds that property for the next 30 years in a high quality area even considering maintenance costs and fix up over time will build a lot of wealth and that is the key to becoming a multi-millionaire is moving into that kind of property with five percent down living there for a year or two and then guess what after you live there for a year or two maybe even live there for five years you move and you turn it into a rental the payment on that property at the time was they could rent that property out right now for thirty eight hundred dollars thirty eight hundred dollars it's kind of insane rents have gone up a lot but they would have a positive cash flow a few years after buying it that's not necessarily to say that that's always going to repeat itself even if they had a slightly negative cash flow of let's say even a couple hundred bucks negative okay that's 2 400 bucks a year can't afford to invest another 2 400 bucks a year into real estate come on the objections people have for real estate are really sad but over the long term what's phenomenal is that that property and that person's equity will grow so much faster than the interest that they pay and that's because they put forty thousand dollars into a property that now has probably somewhere around over two hundred thousand dollars of equity and so they basically turned if their net worth was all of the cash they put into it if their net worth was 40k they 5x their net worth it's 200k they do that again with another property in a few years or now uh then they do it again a few years after that they'll likely be a multi-millionaire within 10 to 15 years i highly believe that somebody buying real estate every three to four years will be a multi-millionaire easily within 10 to 15 years the same can't be said about the stock market because there's so much noise and so what was my big mistake with that property in my opinion in 2018 i should not have sold that property i think it was a mistake to flip that property i called it the youtube flip though and if you type into youtube meet kevin youtube flip you can actually see the series it was kind of during a little bit of a challenging time because in in the spring of 2018 uh mortgage rates skyrocketed about one percent and we had sort of the noise of the market in the panic of the market and a temporary reduction in prices uh in the summer of 2018 which is quite remarkable because that's when the feds started becoming aggressive kind of like what we're seeing now but i think the biggest lesson that everybody should really be internalizing is what can i do to get into real estate what can i do to build wealth with real estate and the answer is get started with your first home the objections that come up are usually oh but then you have mortgage insurance okay so after a few years after you build equity especially if you buy it right or just over time prices goes up prices go up you can get rid of your mortgage insurance the average amount of time that someone has a mortgage is seven years but most people get rid of their mortgage insurance within three years so calculating mortgage insurance that's this 30-year cost is ridiculous that's a flaw most people look and say oh but kevin but but what if the foundation is broken or what if the roof is damaged or the sewer's broken you can inspect for these things foundations aren't broken without external evidence roofs aren't broken to the point that you can't see it when you're walking on it and inspecting it plumbing isn't broken to the point that you can't stick a camera down a vent pipe and inspect the sewer lines under that house in fact that's exactly what we did and we replaced all of the sewer lines in that house so the buyer there has a new roof has new windows has new sewer lines there's a new electrical system they have everything and so what's going to go wrong oh you have to replace an appliance every few years who cares you know you don't have that concierge service of a landlord doing that for you but the reality is a landlord isn't going to do what you expect anyway most landlords suck most landlords won't even won't even fix things they have to fix let alone provide you a concierge service which some people think oh but you know i could just call my landlord and get a new dishwasher really you want the you want the dishwasher your landlord's going to give you or do you want to buy your own and actually build wealth in doing it so look you know everybody knows at this point that yeah i hav link down below but i i just this isn't this video isn't designed to pitch that or the coupon code expiring on the 26th it's to suggest that my biggest mistake was one of my biggest well the biggest lesson the mistake in this video was selling that property was my biggest mistake i've made much bigger mistakes my biggest lesson was buy real estate because over the long term if you buy real estate in high quality areas where people want to live you'll be careful maybe with the zoom towns because we've got that zoomtown phenomenon where a lot of people have moved to for example boise idaho or whatever and now the zoomtowns are seeing real pain and real estate pricing uh and that pain is probably going to continue as we sort of get a reversal of that effect but the biggest lesson is get into real estate and own real estate don't try to time the market with real estate get away from the noise of stocks get into owning assets that over the long term will appreciate that you can control with the bank owning most of the debt and the beautiful thing is when the bank owns most of the debt you're not taking the big risk the bank is and that's not to say you don't want to take risk mitigation stuff say it's not to say you don't want to mitigate your risk here's how you can mitigate your risk the same way lauren and i mitigated our risks on our first property we looked and said okay the payment on this property is nineteen hundred fifty dollars that was our first property what do we do to mitigate our risk okay well worst case scenario can we together take minimum wage jobs and afford twenty four thousand dollars a year and the answer to that is yeah we could even when minimum wage was nine dollars like we could we could even take a minimum wage job and a second minimum wage job each if we needed to we would make that payment because we didn't want to have the seven years of no financing anymore which is what you end up with if you go through a bankruptcy although i think that's even been softened to four years now so bankruptcy isn't even that evil anymore and in the lending world they just want you coming back and buying more homes kind of crazy uh that was our worst case scenario but we're like but why would that happen we wouldn't have to float the whole thing unless of course we put a tenant and had an eviction but this is where people write comments all the time they're like oh i don't want tenants in toilets yeah you don't want tenants and toilets because you're listening to people who have rental properties who aren't experienced professional property managers who don't know what the hell they're doing so what happens they end up renting to tenants with terrible credit scores and uh terrible assets and terrible qualifications and so yeah no surprise the tenants stop paying rent and then they have to deal with tenants and toilets and the nightmare of that but lauren and i you know we had uh over 20 million dollars of real estate over over 20 uh two rental properties rented out to to individual tenants and uh what did we find we found that our property management was maybe 20 minutes a week of work i mean it was a joke we we generally joked that it was about a minute per tenant per week that's it like seriously that's not that much work so that was at least our experience you know knock on wood and uh but we think that is a replicable model if you rent to qualified individuals uh even if you rent slightly below market value you know we'd rather say okay what if we rented out the property for for sixteen hundred dollars would somebody rent the property of course somebody would rent the property for 69 in fact if we had a payment of 1950 and let's say we had expenses of a couple hundred bucks on top of that let's say our payment was 2200 with expenses and repairs and everything and we're just like please somebody just rent it for 1600 like just just just rent it for cheap right and we get somebody with like an 800 fico in the best quality person ever okay so now our negative cash flow would have been in this worst case scenario 600 600 times 12 is 7 200 what we would have gone bankrupt over seven thousand two hundred dollars getting out of town like most of these risks that people feel about real estate are imaginary and that's why again the greatest lesson that anybody watching this video could recall and remember and take away is that if you have an objection as to why you're not getting into real estate ask yourself why you have that objection and ask yourself about maybe you're wrong maybe you should be getting into real estate because maybe real estate is the surest way to wealth and it's one where you don't have to be so concerned about the day-to-day noise the market's always going to shift they're always going to be changes in the market but don't worry about that buy real estate don't wait to buy real estate get in and wait and subscribe because we're going to be bringing a lot more real estate content especially since i've got a huge real estate startup coming up that i'm so excited to share with the world uh and i might actually start posting some more detailed videos about it let me know in the comments if you want to hear that uh sort of a teaser but uh yeah attorneys are taking a whole lot longer on paperwork than i expected but you know i want it to be perfect for when we launch so uh it's okay to wait a little bit longer for perfect paperwork but anyway thanks so much for watching get out there buy real estate we'll see in the next one bye
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