저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론(MU)은 AI 수요 확대와 미국 반도체 제조 투자(61억 달러) 뉴스로 가치·성장·수익성 모두 A+ 평가를 받는다. 전방 PER 약 11로 섹터 대비 큰 할인 상태이며, 5년 평균 PER 기준 저평가 신호가 나온다. DCF 모델 기준 적정가 138달러(약 38% 상승 여지)를 제시하고 25~30% 안전마진 구간을 언급한다. 다만 실적은 사이클 민감성이 커 장기적으로 일관성이 낮다고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
the SNP has been down just over the last 24 hours but in particular the semiconductor space has been in the red Micron Technology one that stands out down nearly 4% and they are due to report their earnings after the market close on the 18th now in terms of the company itself for those that don't know they are a global leader in inative memory and Storage Solutions as well as ssds for applications now this ranges from data centers Mobile devices embedded and Automotive Systems and when we look at the company itself it is up around 26% over the last 12 months although we do notice it is trading towards its 52e lows with a strong buy rating from Wall Street and a double Buy Signal from seeking alfen Quant not something that we actually see that often and as we will come to show you in the episode today the valuation is an A+ the growth is an A+ the profitability also A+ so right across the board this company looks like a massive buy now so we're going to dissect this information give you our own thoughts as well but before we go into any of the information we have some news just released very bullish for Micon as well a few days ago and that is that the us is going to invest in 6.1 billion in the company to boost their domestic semiconductor manufacturing something that Donald Trump himself has talked a lot about bringing in all of these semiconductors into the us and we have seen it not too long ago with Taiwan semiconductors now if we just take a look at some of the information that has been released here we can see one of the reasons for this strategy is to reduce their Alliance on foreign semiconductor production especially from China and we have seen a lot of issues not only the supply chain disruptions but also geopolitical tensions that has ultimately had an effect on the industry as a whole but would say that is good news for the company in terms of their previous earnings we can see their shares were up quite significantly it did look good and the main reason for this is demand continues to climb in the AI sector and in fact we just saw broadcom yesterday report their earnings and they're up nearly 20% in the pre-market alone something that we do anticipate will continue further accelerating not just broadcom not just Micron Technology but the industry as a whole when we take a look at their earnings expectations well over the next few quarters we can see some massive massive growth and we also like to note that over the last four quarters this company has outperformed management targets giving them a 100% track record which gives us faith based on their historical forecasting accuracy that over the next full year where they see 12.98 as the earnings per share that will in turn lower their forward PE to 7.6 now if we just track back to this company's performance we can also see over the last 10 years they are up around 196% although they have fallen quite some way from their highs over $140 just in June this year they do also pay a dividend very small however at 47% and the forward P right now is pretty low at just above 11 we will compare that to the sector as well now before we jump into their actual Financial metrics a few things we do want to highlight from their latest slide and we can see in terms of the growth for 2025 the demand anticipated they are predicting around the mid teens percentage increase which is very good news something we would want to expect for a company that is anticipated to produce some very strong quarters in fact we just saw Triple digits earnings per share year-on-year comparisons in terms of their previous quarter what we do notice very good at 7.8 billion not only up a double digit from the previous quarter Q3 of 2024 but when we compare it to Q4 of 23 it is up 93% and their total revenue for FY 24 up 62% now you may be thinking this does look positive we have seen A+ ratings strong buy ratings as well as a company that is continuing to climb so maybe this is one we should really take as a serious company for exposure in the semiconductor space in terms of their earnings if you want to break down by the business unit we can see year- on-ear Triple digit increase to some of these sectors but overall their performances are very strong and we would be surprised if we don't get the continuation of these double digigit increases in q1 of FY 25 in the December the 18th earnings release we also just want to facturing with this company not only good performances but they do return excess cash to investor pockets as we can see we'll also show you later on they've bought back around 4.4 billion shares just over the last few years they've paid out a fair amount in dividends although it isn't one that has been growing that significantly final thing that we do want to leave you with in terms of their presentation is that for the upcoming quarter over the next few days they're anticipating 8.7 billion as we saw just in the previous quarter 7.8 that is a nice increase so that is something investors will be keeping an eye out can they hit that Target or in fact can they go even further like we have seen from other semiconductors that have reported not too long ago so let's dissect the quality of this company through their metrics now first thing to note their dividend safety is 60 borderline safe we'll touch upon that as well as these two valuation models but as we've highlighted this isn't a company that has increased their dividend at least not over the most recent period so dividend safety was reaffirmed last month what this borderline safe score essentially tells us in terms of the key metrics that is from the Great Recession ' 0709 they had 8% sales which was below the average of the S&P which did sit at negative but -12 and as we mentioned dividend increase 0% so no improvements since 2022 they have however been paying a dividend for the last 3 years without a reduction we're then going to move on to the first valuation model which is based on the 5year average PE remember though we're not looking at any one of these models in isolation we're going to run it through our own process towards the end now the blue tunnel is the expected fair price and what we can see over the last month that this has been trading below that in fact below the lower end of the blue tunnel indicating severe undervaluation we then move on to dividend yield Theory now remember this does tell 5year average but given the fact they've only been paying a dividend for the last three years this doesn't seem relevant to use in today's episode and in terms of the forward P given it sits now at 11 below the 5year rolling of 13 that is an undervaluation signal on top of the fact it does trade at a massive massive discount to the overall Information Technology sector but remember some companies deserve to be trading at a premium some deserve to be trading at a discount and that is what we want to dissect later in the episode when we compare the metrics to the sector medium now free cash flow as always free cash flow data over below 50% is what we want to see for this industry now no surprises they haven't increased it over the last few years given the fact in 2024 something you couldn't tell from this ratio here they paid out more in dividends then they generated in free cash flow however nice to see over the next 12 months this is anticipated a drop to 17% so hopefully we will see an increase over the next year in terms of free cash flow well bear in mind this is a very cyclical industry that is shown across the numbers however what we would like to see with any company is consistent growth over the long term we don't get that from Micron Technology but we can see from 2024's 11 Cent it is anticipated for a large increase to 278 over the next 12 months C locality showing up in the numbers we do want to see a minimum 3 to 4% just to keep up in line with inflation but we have noted five of the last 10 years are in fact negative nice to see the most recent period though 62% and there from a numerical perspective you can see the Peaks and the troughs in terms of shares outstanding as we mentioned earlier on we want companies that return excess cash to invest their pockets through those share BuyBacks not something they've done on a consistent basis over the long term but it is something we noted in the investor presentation and something we do believe is part of their overall Capital allocation priorities roic 10% or more or in fact 12% for this industry again we get a lot of inconsistency right across the board we then move on to their margin first one the operating we want to see above 16% again not something we get consistency with the second thing we want to note are in fact operating efficiencies again we don't see that that is when the margins increase over the longer term and something you can also mirror in terms of the comments on the free cash flow margin it is a fairly inconsistent and cycal Company something we need to understand and maybe something we factor in when we get to our valuation and use it in our margin of safety now net debt to ebits are referen the earnings before the interest tax depreciation ammortization below 1.5 is what we want for the industry and remember the numbers below of nd this correlates to balance sheeet strength dividend safety now 65 on a trading 12 month isn't too bad over the next 12 months anticipated to come down to.
31 which is very strong we'll come to show you the balance sheet overall does look to be good and the dividend whilst not a massive yield and no real increases does look to be safe based on what we can see now we d run through the one stock we are buying heavily in the month of December now as always we send one copy every Monday morning for free to your inbox 28 d have the most upside right now in the smm notice The Insider ownership sits around 3% with around 80 million worth of sales over the last year now no movement in Q4 Q3 we around half a million worth of sales in Q2 around 39 million now for full transparency we do show you who these insiders are the most recent one 29th of September that netted them around $553,000 now you could argue a bit outdated in fact we wouldn't consider this in our overall investment thesis as inside and cell for many reasons personal or Financial in terms of Institutions well 81% ownership 8.4 9.2 million during the same time frame however we do have to note more than they have been buying remember whether institutions are bullish or bearish the same with insiders always always do your own due diligence never copy what they do in terms of the income statement we've already highlighted their top line and the very inconsistent nature what we want to identify here is what is the story on the bottom line net income what can it tell us and in fact pretty much mirroring the Top Line very inconsistent on a year-on-year basis they reported 2.9 billion in 2015 in 2024 778 million so again factors to consider but as always we do apply a margin of safety later on as well now we take a look at the health of this company total cash versus total debt and we notice that cash unlike other metrics is fairly consistently increasing over the longer term going from 3.5 billion in 2015 15 to 8.1 in the latest quarter but as always one number here isn't going to give anything away about the company which is why we compare it numerically and directionally to their total debt which as we can see over the long term inconsistent again but has increased in fact doubled from 7.4 billion in 2015 to essentially the latest quarter at 14.1 as we did see though net debt eidar does look okay in fact it's sitting below one so no real worries but we can keep our eye on we then just want to flag the cash this company generates from operations is it positive is it negative and again similar the theme Here is inconsistency 5.2 billion in 2015 8.5 in the latest annual account we then move on to their first grading which is valuation at an A+ now look this company on a forward basis of 11 is well below the sector median of 26 meaning if you're buying Micron Technology right now you are getting a 58% discount discount to the overall sector does it deserve the discount well look other valuation metrics as well do show a fairly large discount so we need to factor in maybe it actually does deserve it or maybe the market is overreacting and we can see here with a growth grade of A+ signaling to us that ultimately probably doesn't deserve to be trading at this discount year on year Revenue up 62% sex immedient up 4.4 in comparison forward looking 44 sector medium 5.7 and just take a look at this earnings per share over the next 3 to 5 years 51% when the sector as a whole sits at 15.3 so we can clearly see maybe it shouldn't be trading at a discount and again maybe this is reinforced when we do take a look at the profitability with an A+ now gross margin 22% is actually significantly lower than the sector at 50.3 their bottom line margin 3.1 marginally lower than 3.9 however we can see their cash they generate from operating ations very high 8.5 billion significantly above the 99 million from the sector comparison now quick summary this part of the analysis a strong buy from Wall Street a double buy from seeking Al and Quant valuation A+ growth A+ profitability A+ so does look good from that perspective now two things before we jump into our own valuation the DCF model we're going to compare it to other semis in particular those in a similar size market cap wise Total return including dividends reinvested we can pretty much see the sector as a whole has performed very well if we just skip over Intel and then when we look over the last 10 years we can see as well up around 191% which is fairly decent we do see others that have performed significantly better as well as one or two that haven't performed as strongly but what we would say whether you like this return and would accept it over the next 10 past performance is not an indicator of the future they could perform better they could also perform a lot worse now let's compare their performance against the SNP well they've marginally underperformed over the last 12 months over the last 10 years we can see marginal outperformance now remember no one knows what the future holds but you do need to have some faith when picking individual stocks that they will outperform otherwise you could just get a lowcost ETF to track the SNP now let's jump into our valuation model where we get $138 we've used the DCF model ye the average growth rate little bit skewed we have some years going negative to positive we've gone 15% moving forwards with the discount rate we have s we can see $138 indicating 38% upside opinio full transparency for those those that are less bullish believe 10% is more appropriate this pretty much tells us right now this company given no upside trading around that value has around 10% to the free cash flows baked in for those that are a lot more bullish at 20% we can see $188 around 88% upside now on this channel we typically take the medium rate through of 15% where we always like to apply an MOS at about to $124 not the 30% MOS just yet you are getting around 25 to 30% remember that is based on growth rate of 15% over the longer term Wall Street as we saw very bullish they have a strong buy rating they see upside of 50% over the next year and therefore we conclude with a 25 to 30% MOS with Wall Street indicating 50% upside over the year give us your thoughts below is this one that you are considering it does look very good overall maybe in fact you're investing in a semiconductor ETF which is very reasonable to do given that we are seeing a lot of companies perform very strongly it may be a safer bet or you want exposure to companies that you believe are significantly undervalued lots of growth prospects and maybe mu does fit that category now ter grab those spreadsheets and also
Comments 0