저자: JamieDimon인용—실제발언자미상 · 외국인
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영상은 Jamie Dimon의 상업용 부동산 발언을 인용해 금리 상승과 경기침체 시 지역은행·상업용 부동산 부실 위험을 경고한다. 다만 Dimon은 소비자 시장 대비 규모가 작고 사례가 국지적이며 전면적 domino 효과는 아니라고 봤다. 캡레이트 계산 예시로 금리 상승 시 자산가치 급락(3%→6% 캡레이트 시 가치 반감)을 설명하고, 대출 담보가 부채보다 낮아지는 'underwater' 상황을 강조한다. 전반적으로 부동산 시장 위기 가능성에 대한 주의 환기가 주제다.
다듬은 글
you'll want to hear what Jamie Diamond has to say regarding the future of the real estate market and the economy if rates rise and there is a recession there will be real estate problems and certain banks will have far worse real estate problems than others as the CEO of JP Morgan Chase one of the biggest and most influential Financial firms globally with $3.7 trillion in assets under management Diamond has unparalleled access to Insider knowledge of global economic developments which is why I was drawn to him what is your opinion on Commercial Real Estate in a recent interview Diamond talked about the crisis that is developing in the US real estate market approximately half of the $929 billion in commercial multif family real estate debt that will mature this year is owned by Banks primarily Regional Banks the remaining portion is either securitized or owing to non-bank lenders we've also seen a recent decline in property crisis and higher default rates in some areas of the market and when asked if he believed that the next credit catastrophe will ultimately stem from stress in commercial real estate he responded you know first of all put commercial introspective with consumer the consumer markets are much larger so what occurred in 2007 or 2008 is not the same kind of situation and many of these business owners are able to Bear stress therefore Diamond states that he will take a brief break from discussing the financial system because some of the infrastructure such as warehouses data centers and hospitals is truly well done but offices have less value if you only take them because whenever you own with cash flow is worth 30% less when interest rates Rise by 300 basis points so people realize that's not a catastrophe on the other hand while a recession will undoubtedly worsen we don't actually have one according to Diamond most people will be able to get by with this refinancing added more equity for example and default rates Rising naturally because they were so low for such a long time as a result credit is increasing but it's not a crisis Point rather it's just returning to normal yes there will be real estate issues if interest rates rise and there is a recession however as you evaluate the landscape and Regional Banks there will be more of a whack-a-mole effect than a domino effect as long as the economy continues in this direction there shouldn't be any Domino effects instead the issues you've observed are primarily local for example when you discuss real estate First Republic Silicon Valley and New York Community Bank are just a few examples of the idiosyncratic problems that exist Within These Banks if I call it an office I have fantastic leases in it however it is fully leased out with 20 leases that are quite different from the specifications so so you really have to look deeper we make an effort to accomplish so by looking at credit and determining where there will be pockets for many generations real estate in the United States has been regarded as an exceptionally secure investment it seemed as though buyers could never lose money on real estate even if they chose to purchase in let's say less desirable neighborhoods a major factor contributing to real estate's exceptional performance over the majority of the last 50 years has been interest rates consider this a standin for interest rates in the economy interest rates reached their high in the 1980s and have been steadily declining ever since in fact interest rates have been down for more than 30 years the capitalization rate or cap rate is used to Value commercial real estate in short a cap rate is simply the rate of return an investor expects for a property based on the income that property is expected to generate the CPR formula is very straightforward Decades of declining interest rates acted as jet fuel for Real Estate pushing values to the stratosphere simply take the anticipated revenue from the property and divide it by its value for example if we have a property that will bring in $80,000 this year and it is valued at $1 million we can calculate the cap rate which in this case is 8% by dividing the annual revenue by the property's value the cap rate increases es with the amount of income compared to the property's worth conversely a lower cap rate corresponds with a lesser income in relation to the value of the property recall that the cap rate is only a gauge of the return on investment for an investor who buys a property at a specific price interest rates are one of the main determinant of the cap rate that investors are ready to pay on a real estate investment but let me introduce you to Jon to show you what I mean after years of hard labor and savings Jon is now an position to invest the money he has built up for the purposes of this example let's pretend Jon has two possibilities what JN should do largely depends on the return he can get from either of the two options either he keeps those Savings in his bank account generating interest or he buys a house in this scenario Jon would logically choose the savings account because the bank is offering him a 10% interest rate on his savings and the investment property is an anticipated to yield a 10% return based on the current price Jon would have to pay to purchase it compared to merely having your money in a bank account owning real estate has a lot more risk things can break and need to be fixed renters may stop paying rent or your property may eventually lose value and cease producing as much income due to this increased risk investors require a larger return before they will consider making a real estate investment for the sake of this example let's pretend that the extra return requirement is 5 percentage points higher than what can be gained in a savings account this means that before Jon would even consider an investment property it would need to yield 15% annually with the savings account yielding a 10% return if the interest rate on the savings account drops to 7% observe what happens when the interest rate that the account offers decreases John's real estate investment now requires a 12% return if you increase the savings account rate to 5% Jon will only want a 10% return on the property if you decrease the savings account rate to 0% real estate will appear appealing and yield a pitiful 5% return of course this is all hypothetical when Real Estate Investors were willing to accept lower cap rates or returns when it came to purchasing property the example serves to illustrate exactly what has happened since the 1980s you're going to see exactly how these lower and lower cap rates send Real Estate Value skyrocketing let's return to our earlier property which brought in $80,000 year at a 15% cap rate at that point the property was worth $533,000 if we go all the way down to 5% the property's value Soares to an astounding $1.6 million taking the cap rate down to 12% brings the value up to $667,000 the only thing that changed over time was investors willingness to accept ever lower returns which in turn drove real estate values to ever higher prices however things are now turning around with interest rates shooting up to their highest levels in 20 years which could have disastrous effects on the real estate market leaving Property Owners underwater on their loans and Banks stuck holding the bag as an example consider an investor who purchased an apartment building at a 3% capit rate during the height of the real estate bubble interest rates were extremely low at the time thus this 3% cap rate would have appeared totally acceptable using our earlier formula let's assume for the purposes of this example that the apartment building generates $100,000 in annual income we can determine the building's value which is $3.33 million at a 3% cap rate by dividing the annual income by the cap rate as with most real estate owners our investor here bought the property through a loan in this case the loan amount is 70% of the property value or approximately $2.3 million now instead of using a 3% cap rate let's observe what occurs when interest rates rise and cap rates rise this property was bought with a significant amount of debt our investor has a 2.3 million loan on a property that is now only worth 1.66 million this is what it looks like to be what is referred to as underwater on a loan the asset used as collateral in the loan Falls so much in value that the borrower owes more money than what the asset is currently worth let's say the cap rate for this building increases to 6% instead of 3.33 million the building is now worth 1.66 million the cap rate doubling caused the property value to be cut in half according to Jamie Diamond in this scenario the real estate investor would probably lose everything and the bank that provided the loan would have to absorb the legal loss whether or not conditions as dire as these spread throughout the real estate market largely depends on the state of the economy and interest rates pay attention to Diamond as he describes what he observes although markets tend to change their minds somewhat fast confidence is currently rising more than it has in the past the Yem and chatter e Equity Market is opening somewhat and spreads are approaching historical lows indicating that a lot of money is pursuing high yielding Investments it seems that the current state of affairs with open markets and great consumer confidence contradicts your more pessimistic Outlook according to Diamond the base case for inflation may still be stickier rates than the markets anticipate which is what's kind of feeding the current tone of caution diamond made this statement in fourth quarter earnings last month the way I look you have to look forward and I do believe there are things out there that are sort of trembling to keep an eye on in 1972 you felt wonderful too and before any crash you felt fantastic however things changed after that and so one of the main reasons we're doing so well is because of fiscal spending which also has a multiplier therefore I just think it might not go down that quickly and people might be surprised for example when people talk about how the market is kind of pricing a soft Landing that could very well happen but the the odds are 70 to 80% that diamond would give in half of that which is all seven or eight rate Cuts additionally Diamond believes that focusing on any one year is always a mistake all of the variables we discuss such as KT fiscal spending deficits geopolitics and other issues may take several years to resolve but they will eventually come to pass and have an impact we just don't know what that impact will be higher interest rates have an influence on real estate but they also have a depressing effect on the economy as a whole to illustrate what I mean consider your favorite neighborhood restaurant in your city I'm kind of hesitant about what you're hedging for the purposes of this illustration let's say the owner of your favorite restaurant loves the experience his patrons have at his establishment and would like to expand to accommodate more people however the restaurant business is notoriously difficult so even with constant effort it's likely that the owner doesn't have have a lot of money lying around to open a second location a survey conducted among restaurant owners revealed that the cost of launching a single outlet might range from $175,000 to $2 million due to the substantial Financial requirements the restaurant owner will have to rely on a loan from a nearby Bank in order to create the second store for the purposes of this example let's say that opening the second site will cost $1 million whether or not our owner can afford to grow will be greatly impacted by the interest rate on that loan assume for the moment that the owner is able to obtain that $1 million on a 10year loan with a 3% interest rate the loan payment for that loan is $965 per month the monthly payment increases to $1,610 if we increase the interest rate to 7% since restaurants have extremely narrow profit margins as we previously discussed the monthly payment would Skyrocket to $1 4,347 if the interest rate were to increase to 12% the statistics behind building a second site soon become nonsensical when thousands of dollars in additional loan interest must be paid the opening or closure of this second facility will have an impact on the whole economy if it opens consider all the good things that will happen to the economy local contractors And Trades people will have more work as they refurbish the property to get it ready for the grand opening and new employment will be generated for the servers and kitchen staff who will be employed this is just a simple example but it helps illustrate why low interest rates are stimulative for the economy at the moment while many people believe that interest rates will definitely decline in the not too distant future jimie diamond is more skeptical and believes that lower interest rates are far from guaranteed the outcome will become clearer with time and it doesn't and there all of the companies that sell the furniture Linens uniforms and food needed at this location will get more business the list goes on and on you get the idea however one thing is certain the real estate market could have severe difficulties if interest rates stay high or even rise in conclusion the real estate market is showing signs of a looming crisis with factors such as overvaluation increasing interest rates and economic uncertainty contrib buting to the uncertainty as investors it's crucial to stay informed and Vigilant in monitoring these developments by understanding the Dynamics at play and taking proactive measures to mitigate risks we can navigate through these challenging times and emerge stronger in our investment Endeavors don't forget to like this video share it with others who might benefit And subscribe to our channel for more investing tutorials and Market insights thank you for watching but
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