저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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이란 전쟁 4주째 시장 급락 지속. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄와 유가 상승이 증시 하락의 핵심 동인이며, 유가 상승은 주식에 직접 부정적이라고 주장. 석유 관련주는 매수, 엔비디아·마이크로소프트 등 기술주는 추가 하락 예상. 금리 상승과 인플레이션 우려로 채권·금도 약세. 현금 비중을 매우 높게 유지 중. 전문가들은 S&P500 200일선 하회, 투심 악화 및 과매도 근접을 언급.
다듬은 글
It was another miserable week. Four weeks since the war started and it's been pretty darn awful. Sadly for the bulls the history of all shocks is littered with bear markets. 20% draw downs to say raise cash because it's almost never too late to sell something to protect yourself. Today was more of the same.
Dow tumbling 793 points, S&P plunging 1.67%, Nasdaq plunging 2.15%. It's a tough world. My trust is the highest cash position I can recall. But you know what? It is never enough when you have horrendous action like this. It's almost impossible to predict what will happen in the war with Iran. We got to stop trying to do that.
Right now the one thing that's been consistently right is to buy oil stocks. Every time. Every time they're down. Every time they're up. It just doesn't matter because crude is headed higher. That means stocks are headed lower. It's one for one. Please don't overthink it. I say that on Letter X all the time.
Hey, oil's down, stocks will be down and they are. And it was another week when it paid to get out of anything in tech that used to be good. The stocks. Companies are still good but not the stocks. They're all bad now. Including the once loved now disliked Nvidia. Just when we get her showed you it's best in show greatness in GTC.
I'm only I'm not trading it but I know it's going lower. I mean people want They want oil stocks. They do not mind They do not mind the soda stocks. Any pharma stock. And I got to tell you they like the oil drillers. I mean that's really it. Tech nothing. Especially Nvidia. Especially the really despised Microsoft.
These are two of the greatest performers of all time and they haven't been able to what we call catch bid in what feels like ages. Until oil and interest rates, don't forget those, stop going higher. It really doesn't matter what those companies say or do. They are not going to get love from institutions and individuals and I think they're beginning to realize that.
So is there any hope in your term? I mean maybe there is but you know we got to do we got to go to the game plan for next week to figure this one out. Now these days Mondays revolve entirely around the war and ratcheting up in tension. We know our president said there would be an extension of a bombing pause but there's still hostilities.
Which to me means that oil goes higher. And when oil goes higher we know that the stock market goes lower. I keep repeating that because I want people to be really understanding of what's driving the market down. It's gotten axiomatic and I don't think it can change because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and Iran's missile and drone infrastructure is intact enough to keep it closed even as we thought that wouldn't be the case by now.
Worse when the president pushed out his bombing deadline something that would have one time moved stocks up it meant nothing. Why? Because oil still went higher and nothing is more destructive for equities than higher oil prices. Demonstrated again and again in the past couple of weeks. 200 day. We've distanced ourselves now from 6500 even.
Just wondering you know what the technical shelf is here that you're looking at. Uh it's interesting. I mean if we had this conversation on Monday or Tuesday I would have said hey keep an eye on that Monday low that that print that we put I think it was around 6473 right? Um Well we broke through that today and I think if you look at potential bounce levels from from here I think it really depends on you know kind of where we close today.
If we can get back above that great but if not I think you know same I think 6200 is is really in in focus because there's a couple things that happened there that's um that is the August low and that's also kind of the intersection of some Fibonacci levels that some traders might be looking at for a short-term bounce but yeah I mean it it's crazy to think we've basically kind of given up 7 months and 7% of gains just in the matter of the last couple weeks.
So yeah investors are frustrated I get that. I think that you know from what we're seeing in terms of equity trading or we haven't seen a ton of outflows or you know we have we have seen a little bit more kind of a build up in you know maybe some of the unloved stocks before we're seeing buying in Nvidia.
We're seeing we're seeing some buying in Microsoft. And we're actually seeing some some selling which is interesting in some of maybe the the oil names where the services companies right now they're moving out of those. They're seeing a little bit more ETF buying so a little bit more diversification from investors and I think what's interesting about that is that kind of um brings that correlation trade back into play because for the longest time we've been talking about hey there's the there's a small group of winners and what happens a lot of times is during sell-offs you see those correlations start to go up as investors look for more diversified type products.
Yeah I mean I was just looking at that chart that we had up alongside you and it looks like we've just been taking the stairs slowly down this week Joe. I'm just wondering you know as we're on track for a fifth weekly loss here in correction territory now in the S&P you've got financials, discretionary, communication services and tech.
Utilities and energy obviously continue to outperform here as far as the sector performance is concerned. Is breadth deteriorating? Yeah no it's it you have less than 50% of the S&P 500 above the 200 day moving average. So yeah it's deteriorating. It's it's lost uh a good a good percentage in terms of you know kind of where we were just like I said just a couple months ago.
You know it was probably about 6 weeks ago we were saying that there's more than 60% of the S&P above the 50 day moving average and so you're right Sam it's been this kind of slow stair-step approach down. It may not feel that way but it's kind of been that way which is interesting to kind of see that we haven't had a flush.
I look at that two ways right? I you know the the bearish side of that is you don't really get capitulation until you see that flush. Now from a technical standpoint the RSI is down around 30 right now. So we're you know we're definitely getting close to that oversold or you know maybe at that oversold territory in terms of maybe how some technicians would look at it.
But we just haven't seen that one day you know multi-percentage flush where traders just kind of throw their hands up in the air and say I've had it or you know you start seeing just a mass amount of margin calls and people are selling maybe not what they want to sell but selling what they have to sell.
It hasn't really felt that way yet. It's not to say that it can't happen but you know right now oil's driving the market and couple things that you need to pay attention to is WTI hasn't shown any sign of slowing down. I mean right now we're at the highs of the day and you get the news coming out of the Middle East that you know bombing of the steel steel factory occurred and and kind of what that could mean and then here we go we just got the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers that hey you know yeah it showed that they were down and what was interesting in in my mind about that that data was it was the one year inflation expectations have gone up.
Now remember these are you know these are are still kind of old data. So you know the next one we'll get will have some of the the more current the last couple weeks as we've seen energy prices go up but honestly what I what I thought was really interesting beyond the one year inflation it was that that the five to seven have hasn't really moved that much.
So yes investors are still kind of pricing in that this is maybe a shorter term conflict. I think we all hope that that's the case but time will tell. Yeah I mean people aren't feeling particularly great about the state of things right now because there's just so much uncertainty. But as far as these markets I'm looking at the flow of funds for the week.
Equity funds seeing the biggest outflow in 13 weeks. A lot of that driven by the US. 23.6 billion dollars. Materials the biggest outflow ever. Long-term bonds biggest ever outflow since March 2020. What does it all tell you right now? Particularly as we see this de-risking going into the weekend once again.
Well it tells you that it's it's hard for investors to find a place where they can hide right? I mean traditionally if you've seen this type of equity outflows you would have seen it move into fixed income and and actually see fixed income do better but you know there's really a couple things that are hitting the markets right now.
You know there's the uncertainty around oil in the Middle East which is which is hurting kind of higher beta names as your previous guest was talking about. I agree with that 100% but then also what does that mean for inflation? So if we're not pricing in any type of Fed rate cut right now and you're now you're looking at bond yields continuing to go up.
So now bonds aren't doing well and now you're seeing central banks start to sell gold. So now that's pulling back. Now I think part of that is just that parabolic move that it had to the upside. I think that's the same reason that you saw the move in a lot of the the memory and the flash names over the last couple weeks.
You know moving 20 20 25% in some of these names even after stellar earnings was just people are selling the winners are selling the parabolic moves that they've seen and they're they're looking for some opportunities. I don't know you know when when that buying's going to start but you know we've seen some of that transition.
Like I said we're we're definitely seeing some of the diversified ETF buying but in terms of taking shots on on some of the names that have pulled back I think that might take a little bit of time before you really start seeing some of those big flows come back in. Yeah and it's interesting that we're actually seeing traders scooping up a little bit of memory and also EWWY today.
So South Korean exposure which is interesting where we know a lot of that. And you have said that the GPUs for everything era is maybe over. And so what does that mean for say like Nvidia's mode as more and more of these AI ASIC players like Rock and Cerebras try to slot into inference? Sure. Yes. So historically Nvidia was the first and they were the best and they were the only.
We saw AMD come and try to play in the GPU space. But now at Nvidia's GTC and the narrative was always just like buy GPUs they're the best for everything they're the most flexible. Last week at GTC Nvidia and Jensen Huang showed that if you take LLM inference, which is the defining workload of our era, you can actually break it down into subtasks, if you want to think about it.
For example, prefill and decode is what they call them, and you can run some of these workloads on GPUs, but actually to get really fast, like what they call ultra low latency and high interactivity for the for the user, so like really fast cloud coding, for example, you can actually slot in Groq chips and unlock this new performance level.
And so, you know, that that sort of changes the dynamics because if you can slot in Groq or Cerebras, it starts to say like, "Oh, who else could slot in here and why should it be Nvidia?" Now, Nvidia, for their moat, they're they're trying to take it up a level higher and say, "Hey, it's not about the individual components, it's about the whole system, all of the racks put together.
Who can give you the best optimized inference across the whole system?" So, uh Nvidia will continue to try to say, "Once you put it all together, it's our data center, everything branded Nvidia that matters, even if you slot in other people, we believe that we can optimize every little piece and still unlock the best inference." All right, uh a relatively broad-based decline.
If you look at the S&P 500, almost, David, four stocks lower for every one stock that is higher. 110 stocks did advance in the S&P today. 391 stocks moved lower, though. I look at the iMap function on the the Bloomberg terminal, see what's in green, what's in red. Energy, obviously, the one that's shining greenest, the most verdant there on my screen.
Energy up 1.87% as we've been talking about on both radio and television over the course of the day in these last few weeks. Um oil prices really animating all of this and that concern about how high they can go and of course what that duration variable is going to be. All right, well, there's a little bit of green in the S&P 500.
I went to that part of the iMap function and found some gainers today. The biggest gainer on a percentage basis in the S&P 500 is Entergy today, up more than 6.8%. This is a result of a deal with Meta Platforms. It's paying for the construction of seven new natural gas-fired plants to fuel its data center in rural Louisiana.
Meta reaching a new agreement with Entergy to build and pay for enough gas plants to provide a total of 5.2 gigawatts of electricity for the data center. The agreement includes a Meta commitment to help fund up to 2 and 1/2 gigawatts of new renewable resources, as well as a memorandum of understanding to explore future development and use of nuclear power.
Entergy up by 6.8%, the best performer on a percentage basis in the S&P 500. Among the best performers in there as well, I think it was actually the second best performer. That's right. Brown-Forman up again on news of a potential acquisition by Pernod Ricard. So, look at that. Brown-Forman, controlled by the Brown family, up 5.6% today.
It was up yesterday as a result of this as well. The big question is, is the family going to approve because they do have voting power of shares. And finally, Peloton, a blast from the past. Yes, indeed. Out there. Speaking of 2022, I was on my Peloton this morning. What are you talking about? I was Katie has an impressive Peloton streak.
Okay. It's quite the setup I have. All right. Well, I don't know how to segue that into what the stock did today, but it's up 8.9%. This actually the result of Eric Jackson out there on social media. It surged as much as 17% before giving back some of those gains, surging the most intraday going back to July.
Eric Jackson, the activist investor, said he is long the stock. Here's what he said, quote, "I'm long Peloton at $4," he said in a post on X. Peloton shares at that point were down about 24% year-to-date. Up right now, though, we're up today to $4.43 a share. Wow. So, for decliners, I was very spoiled.
I had a lot to choose from. We can start with Amazon. It's down by 4%. No specific news, but we do have the European Commission saying it was hit by cyberattack that may have resulted in the theft of internal data and the attack struck the commission's Amazon Web Services or AWS account so before being detected.
So, maybe that had something to do in part with the stock's decline. Up next is Coinbase. I wanted to talk about this because I wrote about this story yesterday about how Coinbase is teaming up with Better to really offer crypto mortgage. Tim will be interested in this, too. Crypto mortgage to Americans.
And now we have TD Cowen saying that the product is mixed, so that's not really that great. The advantage for the borrower is that they can obtain credit against Bitcoin holdings, the TD Cowen said, but you know, it's still questionable how they will move forward with that. So, we have Coinbase down by more than 7%.
And lastly, we have cybersecurity stocks down, but I want to zero in on the ticker PANW. That's Palo Alto shares are in the red by 6%. Um it's joined by its peers CrowdStrike and Sailor dropped by almost double digits. So, it's really because of a Fortune report about an artificial intelligence model being tested may be used by hackers.
All right, let's take a quick look at the bond market there because also spoiled for choice. Though you did see an interesting steepening, which we were talking about with Jim Caron. You can see the two-year yields actually fell eight basis points, a little bit of a rally in the short end of the curve, which was certainly interesting when you think about where we were after that ugly auction earlier in the week.
Can't say the same for the rest of the curve, though. You saw a little bit of selling pressure deeper as you get further out the curve. 30-year yields higher by about four basis points. 10-year yields, we are back above 440. Tim, are you scared? Uh you know, I wouldn't say I'm scared, but what what I what I will say is I I wonder what the president's next move is because yesterday after the sell-off, what we saw was a message from the president calling for an extension and by many accounts perhaps a third sort of extension.
Uh and and the idea was that maybe this would give more time for negotiations and and and markets bought it a little bit. But then this morning with it seem a seemingly increase in hostilities overnight and more strikes and strikes on infrastructure as well, markets are not buying the idea that there is a sort of an off-ramp anytime soon.
I mean, look no further than oil prices. You have Brent right now up above $113 a barrel, WTI hitting $100 a barrel. That's up close to 6% right now and Brent up Isabelle, what? Almost 5% today. It's really been a wild in the oil market, but I'm wondering if we're a victim of our own quant system, algo system, or just our own fears.
Citi released a note this week saying that selling off on Friday and buying back on Monday has been a recurring pattern over the past few weeks because investors are just really wary of carrying risk over the weekend because maybe they want to have a nice brunch session or hang out with their kids, but they buy the dip.
TV over the weekend. Thank you so much, Katie. I appreciate that. Yes. I feel like that's really maybe something we're seeing. They've Citi also said conviction has been low because, of course, it's a headline-driven market and it's really been tough to figure out this narrative.
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