저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 중국 규제 압박(반독점 조사, RTX 6000D 저조한 수요)으로 역풍을 맞지만, 코어위브와의 $6.3B 용량 계약이 수요 안정 신호로 제시됨. 매그니피선트7은 과거 '최고의 날은 지났다'는 우려에도 밸류에이션이 여전히 매력적이라고 주장. 크레이머와 패널은 AI capex 지속과 2026년까지 시장 상승을 전망하며, 이익 성장 둔화 후 나머지 493개 기업으로 확산을 예상.
다듬은 글
on this story. Yeah. So, basically what happened is is there's there's pressure coming from China on Nvidia. Um it's Nvidia is tightening up its grip on US space AI infrastructure, but there's these headwinds coming from China. They just rolled out their RTX 6000. That's a customized AI chip built to comply with export rules, but demand from Chinese giants like uh tech giants like Alibaba, Bidance reportedly low.
And now adding to the pressure, Chinese regulators have launched, as you mentioned, Marley, this antitrust investigation. They're accusing Nvidia of failing to meet conditions back from 5 years ago, the acquisition of Melanox. So investors are watching Nvidia, as they always do closely. We did see shares slip on that news, signaling maybe some market concern that the regulatory hurdles, those headwinds and then the weaker sales in China could slow the company's growth amid what we're all experiencing these intensifying US China tech tensions.
So lots of interest going on at Invidia. Never a dull moment. Never a dull moment there. And of course you that's very entangled in these trade talks that we have going right now. After China's antitrust watchdog, the State Administration for Market Regulation, SMR, claimed that Nvidia's $7 billion acquisition of Melanox Technologies in 2020 violated competition laws.
The company responded on Monday in a cooperative manner. The business emphasized that it will cooperate with the agencies examining the transaction and that it complies with the law. China's State Administration for Market Regulation responded by claiming that Nvidia had not complied with all requirements associated with its previous approval of the Melanox acquisition.
The probe is another indication of Beijing's increased monitoring of American chipmakers, though regulators did not disclose details. After reversing early losses, Nvidia's stock, headed by CEO Jensen Huang, recovered throughout the day and was level by midday. To increase its control over cloud data centers and artificial intelligence, Nvidia acquired the Israeli networking startup Melanox.
Even previous agreements can become flash points in the US China tech rivalry, as demonstrated by China's review, which was introduced late last year. According to those acquainted with procurement talks, big purchasers have shown little interest in Nvidia's most recent AI processor for China, the RTX 6000D.
In order to meet compliance norms, the RTX 6000D was created under US export limitations and started shipping this week. The chip, which costs roughly 50,000 yen, $7,000, and is intended for AI inference, has not tested as well as the RTX5090, which is still sold on the black market for less than half as much.
According to sources, businesses like Bite Dance, Tencent, and Alibaba have not committed to making significant acquisitions. They are instead waiting to see if Washington approves Nvidia's impending B30A, which is anticipated to provide noticeably better performance, or if shipments of the company's H20 chip restart after it was reapproved in July.
Analyst predictions earlier this year were in stark contrast to the muted response. Morgan Stanley predicted that Nvidia would create 2 million RTX 6000ds in the second half of 2025, while JP Morgan projected that 1.5 million would be produced. One of the primary issues in US China economic relations is China's access to cuttingedge AI technology.
Beijing has scrutinized purchases of Nvidia's products and encouraged the domestic adoption of local alternatives. Chinese authorities charged Nvidia with breaking anti- monopoly law on Monday, casting doubt on the company's market operations. With GDDR memory and a bandwidth of 1,098 GB per second, just below the US export threshold, the RTX 6000D is powered by Nvidia's Blackwell architecture.
Although that model costs between $10,000 and $12,000 and boasts a higher memory bandwidth of 4 GB per second, its release was meant to fill the void left by the H20's previous suspension. Investors are keeping an eye on whether the B30A will be approved by US authorities since this might change Nvidia's approach to China in 2026.
Jim Kramer of CNBC explained to investors why he believes the magnificent seven tech giants Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla can survive despite their recent enormous gains. Until something changes that makes them feel far less heroic, I won't tell you to sell heroes. Even though the Magnificent 7 are heroes, but he replied, that hasn't occurred.
They still have excellent management, a ton of money, and a scale that makes it impossible for anyone to oppose them. What's not to enjoy? Some on Wall Street, according to Kramer, think that the best times for these firms are over and that they have missed the most significant movements in the equities.
However, Kramer pointed out that despite the company's ongoing expansion, this feeling has persisted for years. According to Kramer, the Magnificent 7 still have incredibly compelling valuations as long as management hasn't changed or if the transfer has gone well. Kramer enumerated the scale and robust balance sheets as reasons why he thinks these businesses can continue to succeed.
He claimed that because the Magnificent Seven have access to such vast sums of money, they are able to successfully resist government meddling and exert influence over rivals. He added that because of their size, the tech giants have a great potential for growth, making them challenging to compete with.
According to Kramer, the Magnificent 7 are also adept innovators. He cited Meta's acquisition of Instagram and WhatsAppappas, an example of how the company was able to reinvent itself. The Food and Drug Administration just approved Apple's Apple Watch to assess hypertension, he added. When it comes to the Magnificent 7, something good always seems to be in the works.
According to Kramer, he pointed out that Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, just bought back $1 billion worth of stock, a sizable transaction that some investors believe shows confidence in the business. Kramer admitted that there are drawbacks to these equities, citing Wall Street's concern that Alphabet might be forced to sell its Chrome browser by the government due to its illegal monopoly ruling.
But when a judge said Alphabet wouldn't have to, the company's shares has increased. Kramer acknowledged that his decision to sell Alphabetto the charitable trust of the CNBC Investing Club was a mistake. He asserted that no business has total control over its own fate. However, these seven, I think they still have their greatest days ahead of them because they are as close as anyone has ever been.
With a new cloud services arrangement worth $6.3 billion, Core Weave and Nvidia Corp. are strengthening their relationship, which is providing some comfort to Coreeave investors. Nvidia will have access to computer capacity that it cannot sell. According to a new order form that the cloud infrastructure provider claimed it inked with the artificial intelligence chip manufacturer earlier this month.
Coreweave stated in a Securities and Exchange Commission report on Monday that Nvidia is required to buy the remaining unsold capacity until April 2032 under the terms of the current agreement which was formed in April 2023 when its own clients do not completely utilize Core Weeav's data center capacity.
Nvidia's assurance may allay some investors worries about coreweave's business's sustainability as it no relies only on two clients and faces intense competition despite the unquenchable demand for AI computing. On Monday, Coree stock increased 7.6%. The startup offers large-scale access to AI hardware such as Nvidia's graphics processing units for demanding AI workloads like training and inferencing catering to developers and major tech organizations like Microsoft and OpenAI.
As an alternative to hyperscalers like Amazon.com, Amazon Web Services and Alphabet's Google Cloud Core is one of a handful new Neoclouds AI hardware and service providers. Another competing hyperscaler is Microsoft's Azure. The expanded contract with Nvidia reflects the scale, trust, and pivotal role Coreweave plays in accelerating AI innovation worldwide, the company said in a statement provided to Marketatch.
A representative for Nvidia pointed out that constructing the required data center capacity to satisfy continuous industry demand entails lengthy lead times and customer commitments of 4 to 6 years. According to the spokesperson, Nvidia and Core Weeave are actively constructing data center infrastructure and allocating data center capacity to accommodate changing capital requirements in order to assist startups and small to midsized businesses.
Prior to its March IPO, Coreeave revealed that it would be providing Open AI with AI infrastructure under a contract valued up to 11.9 billion. In May, it struck a second agreement with the company that makes chat GPT for up to $4 billion that will last until April 2029. Microsoft, a major supporter of OpenAI, is one of Core Weave's two biggest clients.
The company revealed in a form 10Q for the fiscal year that concluded in June. Additionally, it stated that it anticipates OpenAI to be a major client in the future. As he began covering Cororeweave's shares on Monday with a neutral recommendation, Seapport research analyst Jay Goldberg stated that the company's biggest risk ultimately lies in its focus on big clients.
Since its initial public offering in March, Coreweave stock has almost tripled. Despite indications that demand for AI is still high, Moffett Nathansson analyst Nick Delo cautioned last week that investors should exercise caution over Core's AI opportunity. Although that gives the organization a favorable impression, Delo stated that it is incorrect to consider Coreweave's infrastructure capabilities to be entirely unique, noting that they may be matched.
For instance, Nebius Group NV, a Netherlands-based company that is also regarded as an emerging Neocloud, said last week that it had reached a multi-year agreement with Microsoft for 17.4 billion to supply it with AI infrastructure capacity for a new data center in New Jersey. According to Delo, the move indicates that the returns on delivering AI infrastructure to large customers are likely to compress due to competitive forces, even while it shows that growing demand for AI is forcing big tech businesses to go elsewhere from hyperscalers for compute capacity.
. Their best days are behind them. Those may be the six most damaging words to your portfolio, and hardly a day goes by when they don't hinder you from making money, especially when we're talking about the magnificent seven. So many people trade these great stocks rather than owning them. And then you get a day like today where the Dow inched up 49 points has to be advanced 47% the record high.
Tech heavy he heavy NASDAQ gained.94% also to a record high. Days like today remind you just how lucrative it is to simply stick with fantastic stocks. Buy at homework. Stop trading people. See, there are so many jumpy shareholders because lots of people truly do believe that the best days of all of the magnificent seven are behind them.
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. They think they missed the big moves that got these stocks to the heights that they've reached. They are either hanging on now for dear life clinging or they exited me failing to get back in even though they said that they would. It's an odd judgment.
After all, when we came up with the term fang, which stood for at that point Meta, Amazon, Netflix, and then Alphabet a dozen years ago, all I heard was that the that I was late and the best days were behind them. A dozen years ago, same thing when I added Apple to the mix with fang late late. That's what I was accused of.
Let me say this. I believe that if management hasn't changed or there's been a smooth transition, the seven rep still still present incredibly compelling valuations even now, some better than others, but that's okay. And when you look back at how they've done historically, you see that they for the most part turned out to be very inexpensive in retrospect.
Uh you guys both heard what we just spoke about with Lauren here. So, I'm going to go with you, Holly, first on this one. As you talk about the markets at or near record highs again, Lauren laid out the case for that broadening out trade. Also, this idea that we're watching those certain key parts of the market.
Is this still a trade that is contingent upon names like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and others leading the way higher? Well, we certainly think that there's a level of interest here for the AI trade to continue and that's what we're seeing. We are though looking for how that trade can expand beyond the Magnificent 7.
So, while we long-term continue to favor those big tech names, we're also looking for opportunities that start to look at how you're seeing productivity engage across the market. Okay. So that productivity being engaged across the market, where does it manifest manifest itself most clearly in your mind?
What parts of the market do you really start to see it really evident that that it's the path that investors should be taking? One area where we are seeing it is in the industrial space and there's stocks like Eaton that we really favor in this environment and area because they are not only an AI play and a growth of the data center play but they're also looking beyond that as we continue to see the modernization of our electric grid.
We're expecting the US electricity demand to grow sixfold in the next 6 years. This is an impressive amount of growth and there are lots of companies that will benefit from it as we start to look beyond just the impact of those mag seven names. All right. So AI and MAG7 Scott have been a big part of this story so far.
We also broach the idea that the rate picture is something that has to be considered as you look at the future path for markets. In your estimation, how much is the fundamental story behind AI or the growth rates there the more important or least important part of the market compared to things like the macro rate picture?
Well, Dama, I do think, you know, I mean, clearly the market expects a rate cut this week and and you know, we're almost certainly going to get one, but I think the AI spend, the AI capex is a huge deal here. And really what we saw in the first couple of quarters of the year, I mean, let's face it, earnings blew away what the expectations were.
They doubled it in both uh the quarters. And a lot of analysts thought maybe we'd see some backing up of, you know, capex is going to be a little bit less. We're a little cautious. Instead, it seems like most of these big companies, they either held their capex level steady or they increased their estimates.
So um you know there's a lot of this market rally built on AI capex. I don't think that's going to change anytime soon. But I do think you know you mentioned broadening you know as we move between now and the end of 2026 I think it's likely that you know the mag 7 mag 7 whatever it is this week or month um their earnings growth rates are likely to slow some you can't grow 75% year-over-year your earnings.
Um, and then we're going to see a broadening out where the other 493 companies, their earnings um, improve as we move through next year. So, I think it'll be a little bit of a broadening. But these big cap growth names that have great products, great demand, great cash flows, I think, you know, it's it's it's correct to say they're likely to take the market higher, which over the next 14 18 months, we think it is going to go higher. How?
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