저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 엔비디아가 중국 수출 규제 협상 카드로 활용되며 결국 중국 판매가 일부 허용될 것으로 본다. 중국 시장 손실은 중동 등 주권 수요로 보완 가능하며 성장은 월가 추정보다 20~30% 높을 것이라 주장. 엔비디아 시총 5조달러 도달이 다음 목표이고, AI 기술주 강세장이 3년간 이어진다는 낙관론을 펼침. 진행자가 인용한 기사들은 엔비디아 실적 호조와 데이터센터 투자 확대를 근거로 주식이 여전히 매력적이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
Let's start with Nvidia, Dan. Um, Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong, he's on the way to China. We know there, Dan, he can't sell his latest and greatest chips, right? And it's costing his company a lot of money. I'm curious how you think this all plays out. Does he get does he get Trump to reverse course? Does he find a workaround?
What do you see ahead? I mean, he's not going to the White House just to have lemonade with Trump. I mean the point is our view is that the restrictions when it comes to China a lot of that ultimately will at some extent be lifted where Nvidia can sell their chips into China. Remember I mean they're not going to just give 8 billion a quarter to Huawei on a silver platter and it's all part of this negotiation that you see but there's only one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and it's led by the godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia.
If he can't sell his latest and greatest in China, Dan, how does he make that up? Could demand from the sovereigns, the Saudis, the UA, UAE, could that make it up? Look, that can make it up. And I still think streets underestimating growth by 20 30% in the next few years. But you do not want to give China just a way to where Nvidia can't touch it.
and they know and Jensen knows that continues to be the biggest market incrementally that they're going after besides the US and it's all part of this negotiation. You cannot just hand that business to Huawei. And that's why look, it's all part of this highstakes negotiation, but there's only one chip in the world that's fueling it.
And Trump knows a big poker chip that he has in negotiations is in video. I'm sure there are some viewers Dan this week when they saw Nvidia hit that milestone right they might have thought hey I missed my chance I missed my opportunity I know you feel differently what are the catalyst that keep this one in your opinion moving higher
I think 5 trillion and beyond their next because it's my view we're in a golden age for tech it's led by Nvidia but it's speaking to the AI revolution I mean behind the velvet ropes they're going to let Microsoft into the $4 trillion mark cap club as Well, when it comes to Nvidia, this is still just the beginning of a three-year tech bull market and it's being led by,
according to a company official on Sunday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Hang will give a media briefing in Beijing on July 16th. This will be his second trip to the nation following one in April during which he emphasized the significance of the Chinese market. Citing worries about possible military uses, the US government has prohibited the export of Nvidia's most cuttingedge chips to China since 2022.
Earlier this year, Nvidia's H20 artificial intelligence processors, which were the company's most potent AI chip approved for sale in China, were likewise prohibited from entering the United States. Both China and the United States have been closely following Hangs most recent visit regarding his travel to China.
A bipartisan pair of US senators said to Hang on Friday, requesting that he refrain from engaging with businesses that collaborate with the People's Republic of China's military or intelligence agencies. Hang was also asked by the senators to avoid interacting with organizations included on the US prohibited export list.
Chinese tech behemoth Huawei and other producers of graphics processing units, the chips used to teach artificial intelligence, have become more competitive with Nvidia. However, because of NVIDIA's CUDA computing platform, Chinese businesses, notably its large IT enterprises, continue to be drawn to the company's chips.
According to its most recent annual report, Nvidia made $17 billion in revenue from China in the fiscal year that ended on January 26th. This accounted for 13% of the company's total sales. China has continuously been cited by Hang as a crucial market for Nvidia's expansion. Last week, Nvidia's market capitalization crossed $4 trillion for the first time, securing the chipmaker's place as the main participant on Wall Street in the competition to control AI technology.
With the firm now holding the greatest market capitalization in the world, Nvidia has been a great stock to own in recent years. Nonetheless, a lot of investors are probably unsure if Nvidia has any more room to operate considering the stock's remarkable growth. After all, since the beginning of 2023, the stock has increased by around 1,000%.
Is it a waste of $10,000 to purchase Nvidia at this time or is it a wise choice for an investment? I believe the answer is obvious and that conclusion is supported by a single long-term pattern. Graphics processing units, GPUs, which are specialized computing processors capable of carrying out numerous calculations in parallel are produced by Nvidia.
The initial purpose of GPUs was to handle game visuals, which were among the most taxing tasks that computers encountered over 30 years ago. They were really good at this, but they soon discovered other applications like drug development, cryptocurrency mining, and engineering simulations. However, their most significant application has only recently surfaced, AI training.
GPUs are perfect for feeding different data sets to train an AI model since they can efficiently manage and analyze a wide range of workloads. Furthermore, clustering GPUs can increase processing capability. AI hyperscalers have gone one step further and constructed AI training clusters with 100,000 or more GPUs.
With 90% of the GPU market, Nvidia is the industry leader. Because of its dominance, it has been able to charge a higher price for its product, which has resulted to profits that have greatly outpaced growth in revenue. Since the AI revolution started in 2023, this combination has allowed Nvidia's stock to rise.
Is there another benefit though? Our understanding of what an AI first corporate environment looks like is still very limited. In order to fulfill the demand, the AI hyperscalers are constructing data centers at a never-before-seen pace. Data centers will receive the majority of the record capital expenditures announced by all AI hyperscalers for 2025.
We may anticipate record capital expenditures to continue for the next few years even though this investment may be allocated for 2025. This is because the process of creating a data center takes several years. . At its 2025 GTC event, Nvidia referenced a third-party market assessment that predicted worldwide capital expenditures on data centers will increase from 400 billion in 2024 to 1 trillion by 2028.
This is in direct line with that report. Nvidia's data center sector brought in 115 billion in 2024, giving it a sizable portion of the data center capital expenditure market. Nvidia may make close to $300 billion from data centers alone if it can hold on to its market position in this sector. Given that Nvidia's sales for the last 12 months is just under $150 billion, this suggests that there is still a lot of room for growth in the company's stock.
Nvidia has acquired the distinction of best performance even though it has been for several years. Furthermore, there is still a lot of expansion planned to support Nvidia's ascent. I think the data center industry still has enough room to grow, even though it is unlikely to return another 1,000% from here.
This would allow for market beating returns. The stock market's recent gains have been mostly driven by the present artificial intelligence AI boom. Soundhound AI and Nvidia are two companies that have benefited greatly from AI. Over the last 3 years, Soundhound's stock has increased 310%. While Nvidia's stock has increased 910%.
Despite being AI stocks, Soundhound and Nvidia each have distinct roles in the industry. Soundhound sells conversational AI services while Nvidia creates some of the most cuttingedge processors for AI data centers. Given that both businesses are at the forefront of artificial intelligence and that their stock prices are increasing, you might be wondering which will be the superior AI stock in the years to come.
Soundhound has attracted investors due of its ability to capitalize on the growing conversational AI sector, which is projected to reach a valuation of $152 billion by 2033. Business has been thriving thus far, and Sound Hound Software can handle a variety of duties, such as taking phone calls for customer support and placing drive-through meal orders.
In the first quarter, which concluded on March 31st, the company's revenue increased by 151% to $29 million. The fact that Soundhound has $246 million in cash and cash equivalents and no debt has also attracted investors. For Soundhound, however, things are not always sunny and bright. The company's gross margins dropped to 51% from 66% in the same quarter last year, and it posted a non-GAAP adjusted loss of 0.106 per share in Q1.
After their runup, Soundhound stock is likewise pricey with shares currently trading at a 46 price to sales multiple. Given that the typical PS ratio for the internet software industry is roughly 7, that is quite costly. Soundhound stock has fallen 36% so far this year as a result of some investors losing interest in the company due to its exorbitant price and lack of profit.
Since up to 95% of all AI data center processors are based on Nvidia's semiconductor designs, the company has been leading the AI boom in recent years. Due to its dominance in this sector, Nvidia has seen incredible growth in sales and earnings. In the first quarter, which concluded on April 27th, revenue increased 69% to $44 billion, while earnings per share increased 33% to $081.
Here, Nvidia and Sound stand in sharp contrast to one another. Despite Sound's remarkable sales increase, Nvidia is extremely lucrative, while Soundhound is losing money. Moreover, Nvidia probably has more area to operate in the AI data center market for many years to come. Tech companies are locked into an AI dominance race right now, and that could continue to expand the market to 2 trillion by 2029, according to estimates by Moody's.
To be fair, Nvidia's stock isn't cheap. The company's shares have a price to earnings ratio of 51, which isn't exactly a bargain. Nonetheless, given that the semiconductor industry now has a PE ratio of roughly 64, Nvidia's stock still appears to be well valued. The company's stock continues to appear to be a wise investment to hold for years due to its enormous AI data center market potential, skyrocketing sales and profit, and Nvidia's supremacy in the AI processor market.
Additionally, Nvidia handily wins this AI stock clash because its shares are reasonably priced. .
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