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t Capital and the lead icker GRNY. This is our update for the week of September 18th. Let me start with some particulars. As of September 18th, the price of Granny Shot's ETF was 2471, net asset value of 2468, and total assets of $2.7 billion. Over the past week, Granny Shots was up 4.22% compared to a 1.88% gain for the S&P or 228 basis points of relative performance.
Year-to date, Granny Shots is up 24% compared to a 13% gain for the S&P or roughly 1,12 basis points of outperformance. I wanted to start uh this video by talking about the macro because the Fed easing cycle is underwaying. The Fed announced a 25 basis point cut on Wednesday and it was dovish in my view because the Fed acknowledged not only is a a future cuts coming which is an easing cycle but that he acknowledged that the inflationary pressures from tariffs was less than they were expecting.
So again more in the camp of transitory inflation. This is something that uh we had taken a view on over at Fundstrat that we expected stocks to rally post Fed and we saw we see that indeed um there was good follow through in both the NASDAQ and small caps which outperformed the S&P the NASDAQ up 1% uh in the 24 hours after the Fed announced this cut and small caps up 2 and a half%.
Now, you might wonder, will stocks continue to gain? And the answer in our view is yes. Uh, I'm citing some stats from Ryan Dietric at Carson Group, and he points out that when the Fed cuts within 2% of all-time highs, the S&P's higher 20 of 20 times with an average gain of around 14%. Now, you're going to wonder what will outperform post Fed.
Uh, we just want to give you a simple framework. Okay, the Fed is dovish and that's monetary liquidity that should be good for risk assets. We also think the Fed wants CEO confidence to recover which we would measure through the ISM moving back above 50 because that'll boost employment. The spread of mortgages to tenure should fall which should boost housing and he's reducing the benefit of owning cash.
it's getting less yield and that's going to push cash off the sidelines and that's risk on. So in a simple way I think the three things to focus on would be MAG 7 and AI stocks, crypto which is Bitcoin and Ethereum and then interest rate sensitive groups like small caps and financials. But I would say you know historically the the the initial bigger effects tend to be monetary liquidity and the fact that cash is coming off the sidelines.
And we can see in the short day and a half since the Fed announced its cuts, the leadership has come from crypto, Ethereum, and Bitcoin. That's very similar to what happened in 2024 when the Fed cut in September after an extended pause. The stocks that are most correlated to Bitcoin and Ethereum are Micro Strategy, uh, ticker MSTR, which gained 6% on Thursday, and Ethereum, um, most leveraged stock is Bitmine, which is the largest holder of Ethereum in the world, and that gained 5%.
Many of you might think markets are in a bubble because the Fed's cutting near all-time highs, but as we pointed out, that's happened many times. in 20 of 20 times stocks still gained after that. But I think the way to think of it is to to think about Nvidia which happens to be a granny shop. But as you can see, Nvidia's PE is 26.6 times.
Now, do I think that's expensive? I don't. First of all, as you can see on this chart, it's it's in the middle of its range over the last 5 years. But keep in mind, Costco and Walmart trade at 48 times and 34 times earnings. These are far less scarce and unique than Nvidia. Nvidia is the most scarce company in the world today because they make a chip that every AI company needs.
So until Nvidia trades at the same multiple as Costco, I think Nvidia is not in a bubble. Now let's go back to Cisco because a lot of people think Cisco is the template for Nvidia today. Well, in 1998, September 98, Cisco was at $1655 times Ford earnings. Why am I setting September 1998? Well, that's similar to 2025.
The Fed was on an extended pause and then they cut in September. In the following 12 months, Nvidia went to $80 per share and its PE went to 210 times. So, its stock went up 5x and the PE went up 4x. Now, that's what I call a bubble. We're not there yet with Nvidia today at 26 times Ford earnings. More importantly, look at sentiment.
The AI net bulls less bears is still negative. There's more bears than bulls at an all-time high. In fact, we've had seven weeks now where markets have made an all-time high and yet sentiment is negative. Yes, you can't really say we're at top if investors are bearish at the highs. Um, so let's talk about Granny Stock performance.
The top five performers of the past week are Oracle, Tesla, Vistra, Lamb Research, and Palanteer. Now, they're all AI related, but Oracle, of course, surged on good earnings, and Tesla is gaining because Elon Musk made a a pretty big insider buy of a billion dollars. The worst five performers were Garmin, Amazon, Robin Hood Markets, Cadence Design Systems, and Netflix.
Some of this is profit taking especially a stock like cadence. Um and in terms of themes the best performing theme was energy and cyber security led by Palanteer and Vistra and G Genova and labor shortage which is Oracle Tesla Lamb Research. Seasonality also worked again Oracle was flagged as a seasonal trade as was Palanteer but Palanteer and has been a grain shot for a long time as well as Oracle. .
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