저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 변동성(VIX 약 25)에도 기회가 있다며 하락 조정 시 매수 전략을 제시. 유나이티드항공(UAL)은 유가 상승·항공사 CEO 발언에 따른 하락 후 반등 가능성으로 95/105 대각 스프레드 진입, 마이크로소프트는 370달러대까지 하락해 장기 상승을 보고 2027년 1월 500 콜 매수 후 9월 500 콜 매도 캘린더 스프레드 구성. JETS ETF도 대안으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Jim Cramer recently advised investors to sit on their hands while the war sorts itself out. Now, of course, you're going to have people buying the dips, people selling the rips, but I think there's always interesting opportunities regardless of how violent the markets are moving or not moving when we have periods of calm market conditions.
Right now, we've got volatility near the highs of the year, at least sustaining above 20 in the VIX. We're sitting at about 25 in the VIX. The VIX futures are still in slight backwardation, which tells us that fear is still persistent through the market, but again, even though we don't know where the markets are going to go next, there's always going to be opportunities under the hood.
Let's check them out right now in the tasty platform. So, looking at the tasty platform here, I think we've got a couple of things to talk about. And really, I want to focus on some popular names. Uh some of the things that I like to focus on, and I think it becomes a lot easier to trade or invest in products when they're tanking, of course.
It can be scary. Uh you have your Mag 7 stocks. Some of them are fluttering in the middle of their annual range. Some of them are near the bottom of their annual or multi-year range. I've got one in particular that I'm looking at, and I think another interesting uh sector is the airlines. I mean, we've seen crude oil prices rip higher.
We've had airline CEOs come and say that over the next year, you might see increases in flights 20%, 30% based on the current levels of crude oil and the pricing of crude oil. And you know, that's basically created hits in these markets. If you think about United Airlines or Southwest or whatever your favorite airline is, uh there's going to be opportunities to the downside.
There's going to be premium to sell if that's your strategy, but at the end of the day, you could even consider getting into long-term investments or long-term options trades in some of these names. So, looking at United Airlines first, uh as a Chicago guy, United is my airline. I mean, it's a hub in Chicago, so it's an easy choice.
I like to get bullish when these markets take a a nose dive here, and United's catching a bid today. It's up at 94, but we saw this thing as low [clears throat] as, you know, 85 and change just a few weeks ago. We're looking at a weekly chart here on the tasty trade platform, and we've got plenty of room to grow to the upside if you believe at a certain point in time, UAL will get back to 100, get back to 110, get back to 115.
That's how I like to think about these opportunities when these times arise. I think in the future, 6 years 6 years out, 5 years out, a year out, 6 months out, whatever it is, do I believe that this product's going to be higher? And if the answer is yes, I can strategize for that. Of course, the shorter time frames are harder to predict, but you can get high return on capital strategies in these products like with, you know, a diagonal spread, calendar spread, what have you.
So, I actually was filled on a trade this morning. I went and I bought the 95 strike call out in May. We're currently trading at 95. We're seeing UAL flutter around in this range, but taking a bullish stance, there's a couple of cool things about this strategy specifically. So, buying the 95 call, 51 days to go, and then selling the 105 call against it creates a diagonal spread.
So, I'm ultimately inventorying delta on the long side here, and I'm selling some premium against it at this 105 strike, which again, if we look at the chart, it's kind of right in the middle of the range that we've fallen from over the past couple of weeks. So, if I'm right, I'm basically getting into this strategy for about $6 and change.
It's a 10-point wide diagonal spread, and I've got a $200 of premium to decay over the next 23 days. If UAL continues to move to the upside, I'm going to see decay over time in the short option. I'm going to see an appreciation of value in the long option here. And one thing to consider is that earnings are going to be released in United over the next couple of weeks here.
Late April is what is projected. It's not confirmed yet cuz you don't see a little bell pointing to the left or right side signifying before the market or after the market closes on that day, but once we get that confirmation, I'll have the ability to roll the short option into the earning cycle, pick up some more premium, and reduce cost basis further if I don't get the rally before then.
So, a defined risk way to take a shot at some of these falling airlines, and another one to check out is JETS. It's a global ETF, and this kind of gives you exposure to a lot of different airlines trading at $25. It's a smaller product, still very liquid, but it's more digestible for a smaller accounts.
Another opportunity that comes to mind, again, not sitting in my hands here, actively trading, looking for what the market is giving me in terms of opportunity, and that's the Mag 7 Microsoft. I mean, I've got positions in here, plenty of positions. I added another position today, but look at this chart.
We've fallen quite a bit here. Microsoft was trading at 550. We saw it get as high as 550, 560 twice, and of course, it's only been bad news for the software products except for this one week here where we had that relief rally, but we're sitting at levels in Microsoft that we haven't seen since the first market reaction in 2025 that caused that panic with the tariffs.
We're literally sitting at tariff lows or close to tariff lows in Microsoft uh as it stands. So, same question. Do I think that Microsoft is going out of business? Do I think that Microsoft is going away? No, I personally don't. So, when I look at these levels and I look at this opportunity here, that's another way to to put it is, do I believe Microsoft will eventually recoup to $400 a share, 450, $500 a share, uh which is still not near the highs.
And my answer is, yes, I think that will be the case. So, given the current market, and of course, you've got things that are pushing and pulling this market every single day. We see market reactions to the upside. We see crude oil sell off to the downside. There's still plenty of opportunity out there, and I'm always going to lean in that direction as opposed to waiting and seeing what happens because for me, if I wait too long and I see this thing move in the direction I I was originally planning for, I'm not going to be too happy about that, but still have to be comfortable with the risk, still have to trade small.
Give yourself the ability to layer into a continuation to the downside if that's the case. And for me, that's with defined risk strategies. So, again, today, I was able to place a new trade in Microsoft, and I went with a really long-term calendar spread. So, normally with calendar spreads, I like to keep it a little more concise in terms of time frame.
I typically like to buy an option that's between 60 and 90 days out, and then I'll sell the option that's between 30 and 60 days out against it. So, typically, I might go, you know, long May or short April at this point, but again, the further this thing falls, the more I want to get long-term bullish delta exposure because while I don't know it's that it's going to happen in a certain time frame, it's already fallen to multi-year lows or the lows of tariffs like we talked about before.
So, the further this thing falls, the more I want to inventory long-term delta to give myself as much time as possible to be right, and if I am right, it's going to be hopefully a nice payday here if we get that bullish rally in Microsoft. So, this is another cheap one. I mean, I would just went up here to the 500 strike, and you can go anywhere in this range if you're looking for bullish delta, but the 500 strike was trading for about nine bucks earlier, and again, looking at this chart, we've gone from 550 down to 370.
It's a big sell-off, but I feel like Microsoft's one of those products just like Nvidia. Like once it reaches a certain level, and the seas part, and some positive news comes out for Microsoft, I would not be surprised at all to see this kind of rally like we saw in the April tariff lows all the way up to the highs of 550.
And again, 500 is not at the highs that we've been trading. It's kind of right in the middle of that range. So, I went with the 500 strike. I bought that all the way out in January of 2027. So, almost 300 days out, plenty of time for this to work out, and I don't need the product to go to 500. I can have it go to 400, 410, 420, and we'll still have a nice trade on our hands.
With that said, I wanted to reduce cost basis, and again, typically, I'm selling a near-term option, but the strike of 500, there's just no premium if you go to April or May, even June. I mean, the 500 strike's trading for about 70 cents relative to the $9 that I paid for that option. So, I'm going a little bit higher in terms of days to expiration.
I'm going up to September, and still selling an option that's, you know, pretty far out in terms of selling premium, but it's still about half of the distance in terms of time relative to the option that I'm buying. So, I sold the 500 strike for about $3 and change, and that reduced the cost to about 500 bucks.
So, when we look at this on the curve analysis mode on tastytrade, and if I just isolate this trade here, you can see, I mean, I've got plenty of opportunity to the upside. And again, if I don't make any changes to days to expiration or implied volatility, you can see, even if we get a rally to 400, this trade can be a two, $300 winner just because the value that leap option or near leap option with that January expiration cycle, it's going to increase in value much more than the September option will and that's apparent in the price difference as well with the $9 long option and the $3 short option.
So, just a small rally here of, you know, 10 20 points over the next month or so will definitely create a nice winner in this type of position. And again, we're trading at 370 Microsoft. We could go to 350. We could go to 300. I'm keeping that risk small. I'm keep keeping it digestible and giving myself layering opportunities.
If if we do go lower, I can throw on some more bullish trades and we'll see what happens there. But again, not sitting on my hands right now. Although we've seen the market chop, we've seen oil rally, we've seen it fall, we've seen precious metals rally and fall. There's always going to be opportunities when you dig under the hood and the tastytrade platform has a lot of tools to help you look for those opportunities using those watch lists, seeing what's moving to the downside, seeing what's near their 52-week low or the 52-week high.
That's a really cool watch list as well. So, tune in to tastytrade live. We're talking about these opportunities all the time. If you like this kind of content, please like this video, subscribe to the tastytrade live channel, and let me know what you think about these strategies or if you hate them in the comments below. We'll see you next time.
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