저자: Shachi · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥100이 현재 큰 폭의 하락 중이며, 경기 사이클상 고인플레·고실업 국면이라고 봄. 과거 리먼·IT버블 때 CPI 고점 이후 주가가 하락하고 주가 바닥은 FF금리 인하기에 형성됐다는 분석을 제시. 4월 CPI 8.5%를 고점으로 가정, 연간 CPI가 4% 아래로 내려오고 연준이 금리 인상에서 인하로 전환하기 전까지는 주가가 추가 급락할 것으로 전망. 파월 연준의장의 투자신탁 매도와 연준 비둘기파 전환 가능성을 언급하며, 오늘 CPI와 미시간 소비자심리지수 결과가 모두 주가에 부정적일 것이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Hello, I'm Shachi, a factory worker who's been away since giving birth. Today's topic is this market crash, and we'll analyze inflation and interest rates to determine when it will happen. I'll analyze it from a fundamental perspective. My profile is above, so please take a look if you're interested.
As for my investment style, I invest 50,000 yen monthly in Nasdaq, the strongest ETF on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, average down on India's second ETF, and also keep an eye on emerging markets. I also play around with the rest of the time in individual stocks and leveraged ETFs. My target portfolio is shown on the right.
This channel is basically specialized in leveraged Nasdaq and SOXL 2, and it delivers data analysis, economic market analysis, latest news analysis, and technical analysis in an easy-to-understand animated format, even for beginners. Unlike hype channels or channels that train your mental strength by holding on, this channel delivers meaningful content that will make you stronger in trading.
Please subscribe to the channel and click the notification button below to wait. Now, let's get down to business. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 is experiencing a massive crash, isn't it? This crash is exactly as predicted in my video I posted at the end of February, so I'd like you to take a look at that.
However, I also have another scenario in mind: the price will rise from 15,000 to this line at 15,400 points and then decline steadily. I still have the TradingView screen from the time I used the lines in that video, so I'd like you to take a look at it. When I looked at this screen after a long time, I was really surprised to see that the price movement was very similar to the lines I drew when I made my predictions before.
The reason why I can predict a crash to this extent is that this crash is something that is bound to happen. The economic cycle involves alternating waves of economic expansion and recession. And where are we now? It's in this red circle. Unemployment is at its peak and inflation is also high, so this is exactly the economic cycle we are in.
I think it corresponds to this slightly lower red circle in the enlarged graph. When you look at this circle, some people might think that stocks will continue to fall, but the bottoming out of the economy and the bottoming out of stock prices are not necessarily the same thing. Stock prices have foresight, so they move in a slightly different direction.
So why is this violence happening? It's due to the FRB's monetary tightening, the worsening earnings outlook, and the Russia-Ukraine war. And a fundamentally related factor is inflation. This time, we'll look at inflation and another important factor, interest rates. This FF rate. We'll analyze where stock prices will bottom out by looking at this interest rate.
First, I'd like you to look at this. This is a graph of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year for the same period. This is what's called the inflation rate. And the current inflation rate is here, at 8.5%. We'll add in the forecast value for the inflation rate that will be announced tonight. It looks like it's dropped a little, but the current inflation rate is 8.5%, which is extremely high.
And this time, I'd like to look at the inflation rate in this red box during the Lehman Shock. Let's take a look. Please look at this chart. This chart compares the CPI and the Nasdaq 100 charts during the Lehman Shock. The blue line represents the CPI and the orange line represents the Nasdaq 100 chart.
Looking at this graph, we can see that the CPI peaked at this red circle. If we draw a line here, we can see that the Nasdaq 100's crash had already begun even before the CPI peaked. After the CPI peaked, it began to decline, and we can see that the Nasdaq 100 also fell sharply in line with that decline.
And this red circle is the bottom after the Lehman Shock. If we draw a line here, we can see that the Nasdaq 100 had hit that bottom, but the CPI was still falling. And by the time the CPI hit the bottom, we can see that the Nasdaq 100 had already reversed and was rising. To summarize, the CPI peaked out at 5.6%.
As it falls from 3.8% to 0%, the Nasdaq 100 NDX stock price will reach its peak at 1.8%. Next is this graph. This graph compares the CPI and Nasdaq 100 charts during the IT bubble. Again, blue represents the CPI and orange represents the Nasdaq 100 chart. Here as well, if you circle the peak of the CPI and draw a line of 10, you can see that the decline of the Nasdaq 100 had already begun.
And if you draw a line at the red circle, which is the bottom after the IT bubble, you can see that the CPI had already bottomed out and was rising. To summarize, as the CPI falls from its peak of 3.8% to 1.8%, the Nasdaq 100 stock price will reach its bottom at 1.8%. And summarizing the price movements of the CPI and Nasdaq 100 during the Lehman Shock and the IT bubble, the CPI When the peak is hit, the stock price has already fallen.
And as the CPI falls, the stock price also falls. And the stock price tends to hit its bottom before the CPI does. Well, this is a little different from the Lehman Shock and the ID bubble, but during the Lehman Shock, the stock price hit its bottom first. And Mr. IT Bag says that the CPI hit its bottom first.
To put it simply, in order to curb inflation, the stock price must also fall. And this point that the real decline begins after an unseen peak is extremely important. And now this is my prediction, but if we consider the 8.5% announced in April as the peak for the CPI, I predict that when it falls to around 4%, the stock price will be close to its bottom.
In other words, as long as the year-on-year US Consumer Price Index (CPI) value does not fall below 4%, the stock price is still far from bottoming out. And it will be announced tonight at 9:30 p.m., so I will put a link to Yahoo Finance in the description box, so please be sure to check it out. Next, I'd like to analyze the Fed's policy interest rate, the FF rate.
First, please look at this chart. This chart shows the Nasdaq 100 during the IT bubble. We'll look at the Fed's interest rate hikes during this period. From June 1999 to June 2000, interest rates were raised. Then, as stock prices fell and a recession appeared, from December 2000 to June 2001, the Fed cut interest rates.
The point to note here is that stock prices hit their lowest point during the period of interest rate cuts. Next, look at this chart. This chart shows the Nasdaq 100 during the Lehman Shock. During this period, from June 2004 to July 2006, interest rates were raised. Then, from July 2007 to December 2008, interest rates were cut.
I apologize for the poor image quality of this chart, but in November 2008, the Fed ignited a fire and hit its lowest point. The point to note here is the same as above. The point is that it hits that point during the period of fraud. And summarizing these two analyses, interest rates are raised when stock prices are rising and cut when stock prices are falling.
And in both cases, stock prices hit that point during the interest rate cuts. Now I'd like to look at the current Nasdaq 100 chart and analyze it. First of all, the current Nasdaq 100 started raising interest rates in March 2022. Compared to the stock prices that have been soaring ever since, it started raising interest rates too late.
It really feels like the FRB is slacking off. And as for price movement predictions, as interest rates are raised at a rapid pace, stock prices will continue to rise. And when they have fallen to a certain extent, the FRB will switch from raising interest rates to cutting them. And after that switch to cutting interest rates, stock prices will finally hit that point and slowly rise in an upward trend.
And summarizing all of this, the conditions are that the CPI, which is announced on the 10th of each month, falls below 4%, and the US central bank Until these two conditions are met—that the FRB will shift from raising interest rates to lowering them— I predict that stocks will plummet. This is based on past analysis by Tatsu Shachi, so whether you believe it or not is up to you.
And here I would like to point out two points to note. First, Powell has sold his stocks. This Powell is the chairman of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. I think Powell is one of the key figures who decides monetary policy. And I would like you to look at this article. It is an article titled "Powell, Chairman of the FRB, may have sold 570 million yen worth of investment trusts before stock prices fell." According to this article, Powell, the chairman of the FRB, has already sold his own investment trusts worth 5 million dollars.
What this indicates is that strict monetary tightening will continue indefinitely until inflation is eradicated. Because Powell has sold his investment trusts saying that he doesn't care how much stocks fall. And the next point to note is the FRB The point is that the FRB could suddenly become dovish.
Generally speaking, there is a division between doves and hawks. Hawks are those who advocate for rapid monetary tightening and negative stock price movements, causing stock prices to fall. Doves, on the other hand, advocate for moderate monetary tightening and positive stock price movements. Currently, the FRB has a large number of people making hawkish statements.
However, if inflation subsides, or if the economy collapses, or if unemployment surges, there is a possibility that the FRB could suddenly become dovish. As such, the FRB's statements could change suddenly, so I think it is necessary to keep an eye on economic indicators, stock price trends, and global news such as world affairs.
As for this, if I notice anything strange while looking at economic indicators and economic news on a daily basis, I will share it on YouTube and Twitter. Finally, let's look at some economic indicators to watch out for in the future. First, today, May 11th at 20:30, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.
There will be two figures: month-on-month and year-on-year. The month- on-month figure is +0.2%, compared to + 1.2% last time, and the year-on-year figure is + 8.1%, compared to + 5% last time. Both the month-on-month and year-on-year figures are expected to be lower than the previous figures. If these figures are accurate, we will be able to confirm a good peak in inflation.
So, I would like you to pay attention to whether the actual figures are higher or lower than these forecasts. Whether the figures are higher or lower than these forecasts, I believe that stock prices will fall in the medium term. However, if the figures temporarily exceed these forecasts, it will be negative for stock prices, and if they fall below these forecasts, it will be positive for stock prices.
And one more thing, which will be released at 23:00 on May 13th, is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. A lower value indicates lower consumer sentiment, and the forecast is 64, compared to 65.2 last time, so a lower value is expected this time. If this indicator also falls below expectations, it will indicate a decline in consumer sentiment, which will likely impact future corporate performance.
Conversely, if it is higher than expected, it will show that consumers are more enthusiastic and actively engaging in consumption than anticipated. Frankly speaking, I think that in the current situation, either way will be negative for stock prices. So, I'll end it here for today. Today, I talked about how the NASDAQ 100 wo n't bottom out unless these two conditions are met.
I plan to continue sharing information about Raybanas and SOXL in the future, so if you liked this video, please give it a like and subscribe to the channel. That's all for now. Mercer Car
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