저자: Datsushachi · 외국인
요약 보기
변동 MACD 지표로 SOXL을 매매하는 전략을 소개한다. 필라델피아 반도체지수 월봉에서 2021년 7월 매도 신호 후 2022년 12월 매수 신호가 떴다고 주장하며 지표의 성과를 강조한다. 이번 폭락은 수십 년에 한 번 오는 규모로 보고 펀더멘털(실업률 4.5~5%, 연준 금리인하, 인플레 4~5%)이 최악일 때 매수하겠다고 한다. SOXL은 한 자릿수 또는 2~5달러까지 하락할 것이라 예측하고, 나스닥100은 6,000~10,000포인트까지 하락을 전망한다. 노동참가율 하락과 경기침체 필요성을 논하며 실업률 상승이 인플레 둔화의 열쇠라고 주장한다. 자막은 후반부 무관한 내용과 자동인식 오류가 많다.
다듬은 글
Hello, I'm Doi Nakasaku Kogyo 50-kichi Datsushachi. Today's topic is the Variable MACD indicator, finally SOXL is being held, and I'll be talking about what the future strategy will be. I'm Datsushachi, but I'm a low-educated, bottom-of-the-barrel factory worker, and I'm trying to fix that. In 2022 I established a company and am aiming to make a fortune by the age of 32 through US stock and real estate investments.
Having lost tens of millions of yen in investments, I'm now distributing investment strategies that won't lose. I've also come up with a Variable MACD voting method to get rich as quickly as possible. My basic investment stance and current investment stance are as follows: I'm currently building my portfolio around leverage speed.
I've also created an indicator for investment methods using Variable MACD, which allows me to buy and sell according to the signals. If you held onto SOXL before the IT bubble, 1 million yen would become 90,000 yen, but by trading with Variable MACD, it could become 1.2 billion yen. If you're interested, please check the description box.
Well then, I think it's really worth it. Variable MACD indicator monthly chart The Socks Index indicator lit up. This is the monthly chart of the Socks Index when it lit up. By the way, the parameters of the variable Macley indicator are the initial parameters. In July 2021, a sell signal lit up, and the price at which it was sold on the 1st of the following month was $45.2.
Then, last month, in November 2022, the company employee indicator lit up. This meant that a purchase was made on the 1st of the following month, so it was purchased on December 1st. The price was $14.1. In other words, a 69% crash was avoided. The indicator has already shown its power since its release at the start of the season.
Looking at the sequence of events since the COVID-19 shock, the company employee indicator lit up in May 2020, and a purchase was made on the 1st of the following month, June 1st. The price at the time of purchase was $10.1. From this $10.1 to $45.2, there was a gain of 347.2%, and a 69% drop was avoided.
This shows that it performed incredibly well even in this major market crash at the beginning of the season. I'm supposed to buy it on December 1st, 2022, but I'm not planning to buy any more orcas yet. I've talked about this in a previous video, but normally, you would just mindlessly buy and sell according to the variable MACD, which is how you use this variable MACD indicator to get frostbite, but I think this crash is a once-in-a-few-decades kind of crash.
It's the kind of crash that only happens once every 20 or 30 years. So I want to consider fundamentals like unemployment and inflation to some extent before buying. There are also geopolitical risks like war. I explained in a previous video that I'm not buying as planned this time. I uploaded a video called "Nasdaq 19 Rise: Future Price Movement Prediction" and I explain the strategy in detail there, so I'll put a link in the description box.
If you're interested, please take a look. And as for what will happen to soxl in the future, I've been saying since January of this year that soxl will definitely be in the 20s, and there's a chance it will even reach the $ 10 range. I had been issuing warnings about this, but as predicted on Twitter, it hasn't changed.
My prediction in June was that I felt soxl would fall to single digits, so I summarized it in July. I predicted soxl would definitely fall to single digits, maybe even below $2 or $5, and this prediction hasn't changed yet. By the way, as I've said before, I'm certain the Nasdaq 100 will fall to 10,000 points, and I'm looking at it going down to around 6,000 points.
Soxl is currently in the $10 range, not yet, so my prediction is that it will fall to below $2 or $5 from here. Currently, the Sox index shows the "Office Worker" signal, but my prediction is that it will fluctuate up and down from here and eventually fall. I think a sell signal will appear in one, two, or three months.
The appearance of the "Office Worker" signal was completely unexpected for me. I thought there would be a rebound strong enough that the "Office Worker" signal wouldn't appear, but the Sox index has rebounded a whopping 36.05% from its bottom to the present. 36%! This is an incredible rebound. As expected, the price has broken below the Bollinger Bands and surged by 36%, which means that a sell signal has appeared.
I think there is a high possibility that the price movement this time will be similar to that of the Lehman Shock. During the Lehman Shock, the price plummeted once, but then rebounded by 29.2%, and a sell signal appeared, but then a sell signal appeared a few months later, and the price plummeted again.
That was the price movement during the Lehman Shock. I predict that the same thing will happen this time, with a sell signal appearing a few months later, so my strategy for this crash is to buy while considering the fundamentals to some extent. In reality, TSMC is building factories in various places, and the US government is providing support funds for semiconductors.
From that perspective, although the price has rebounded this much, even if there is support from the US government and capital investment is being made, I think it will be several years before the actual impact on performance and financial results becomes apparent, so I predict that the economy will decline sharply next year due to recession.
With the support of the US government, there is a possibility of a slight drop in the future, but there is also a good chance that the market will continue to surge without any sell signals being triggered. This makes it a very difficult choice, but my strategy for this major crash is to wait until the outlook is poor and the fundamentals are at their worst before buying.
So even if the market surges, I will not buy in a hurry, but wait until the conditions for buying at the worst possible fundamental state are met. In terms of the current economic cycle, it feels like we are currently at the end of an inverse monetary market. An inverse monetary market is when the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, raises interest rates and tightens monetary policy, creating headwinds for stocks.
It is as if they are now sucking up the money that they previously spent. This inverse monetary market is said to last from the peak of the stock market down to about halfway down. In the future, when this inverse monetary market ends and the earnings market starts to deteriorate and viewership ratings finally begin to rise, it will be a full-fledged inverse earnings market.
This is the point where the decline begins. I believe we will enter this phase and ultimately stock prices will reach their peak. The key to this series of crashes is the unemployment rate. This graph shows the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of the US population that participates in the workforce.
Looking at this labor force participation rate, the current level is very low. This graph goes back to 1980, and it is at a considerably low level compared to the past 40 years. The labor force participation rate was at its lowest point during the COVID-19 shock. Although it has recovered somewhat since then, it is still considerably lower than the pre-COVID level.
One reason for this low labor force participation rate is that the term " fire" has become popular in recent years, and many young Americans are also "fired." We are now in an era where it is possible to earn money without working through dividends and real estate income. And of course, with the increase in working from home due to COVID-19, many people have quit their jobs to become streamers, YouTubers, bloggers, etc.
Similarly, the demand for working from home due to COVID-19 has led to many women who previously worked becoming housewives. There is a demand for such things, and I think that the decline in the labor force participation rate will accelerate in the future. So the labor force participation rate will continue to fall.
And a lower labor force participation rate means that there will be fewer workers in the first place, so the unemployment rate will not increase. I think there is only one way to increase the labor force participation rate, and that is to cause a recession. When there is a recession, stock prices will fall.
When stock prices fall, people like YouTubers and affiliate marketers who make money from advertising will see their income decrease and their lives will become increasingly difficult. From such a place, they will think, "Oh, I'm in trouble if I don't work," and the labor force participation rate will tend to rise.
Alternatively, I think companies are already aware that the labor force participation rate will decline in the future, so they will have to invest in equipment such as AI and robots. Not hiring people is difficult, but with the current high interest rates, it is difficult to make investments in equipment, so I think that not hiring people is the next stage.
So for now, I think it is necessary to cause a recession and increase the labor force participation rate. If the unemployment rate doesn't rise and only continues to fall, it becomes difficult for the unemployment rate to rise. And if the unemployment rate doesn't rise, the average hourly wage also tends not to fall.
And if wages do n't fall, the inflation rate won't fall either, so I think the unemployment rate is the key. This indicates that if the unemployment rate doesn't rise, inflation won't subside easily. And this chart, this chart shows the year-on-year inflation rate in the United States. It is currently at 7.7%, but this inflation rate has been falling as if it had peaked.
This inflation rate includes the price increase rate, including crude oil prices and food prices. And this chart, this chart shows the crude oil price. It rose sharply during the Russia-Ukraine war, but has since plummeted. Regarding this inflation rate, which includes crude oil prices and food prices, the decrease in crude oil prices and the decrease in food prices have greatly contributed to the decline in the inflation rate.
And next I will show you this graph. This is the core inflation rate in the United States. This core inflation rate This is the inflation rate, which does not include the price of crude oil or food products. It is currently at 6.3%, and for a while it looked like it would continue to fall, but it has risen again and appears to be leveling off.
As you can see from this chart, the core inflation rate is at a very high level, so do you think it will simply and rapidly decline from here? This core is influenced by service prices and rent, so unless the unemployment rate rises and wages fall, I think it will be difficult to lower. Anyway, I've gone off on a tangent, but the conditions for buying SOXL are, firstly, that the unemployment rate rises to around 4.5% to 5%, secondly that the Fed stops raising interest rates or cuts them, and thirdly that the inflation rate falls to 4% to 5%.
I consider these three conditions to be the minimum requirements. And if these three conditions occur, it means the economy is in the worst possible state. The worst possible state. The unemployment rate is still rising, and the Fed has no choice but to stop raising interest rates. The economic situation is such that it's shifting into a downtrend, and along with that, the inflation rate is also falling sharply.
This is the worst situation. After overcoming this worst situation, I believe that the lighting of the Variable MacD signal is the real opportunity for a market shareholder to take the market. And regarding the real opportunity for a market shareholder to take the market after that, I'm thinking of buying on the weekly Socks Index and the weekly Nasdaq 102, rather than the monthly chart.
This means buying earlier than the monthly chart. And regarding this crash, it's a somewhat unusual big crash at the beginning, so there's a possibility that the previous assumptions—that the unemployment rate is rising, the Fed is starting to cut interest rates, and the inflation rate is falling—may not apply.
So I'm thinking of buying when the Nasdaq 100 falls below 8000 points and the 3rd signal lights up on the weekly chart. Well, I think the three conditions mentioned above will definitely apply, but if the Nasdaq 100 falls below 8000 points and the market share signal appears on the weekly chart, I think it might be a good idea to buy.
And of course when buying... We will announce it on YouTube and Twitter, so please subscribe to the channel and follow us on Twitter so you don't miss anything. We also have a membership where we distribute something called Variable Mac Strategy, which surpasses the performance of indicators on a variable Mac.
If you are interested, please consider joining the membership, even if it's just to try it out. So here we go, little boy, look at this, look at this, what is this? Look at this, look at this Look, messy messy messy, what is this? Amazing, first time brushing teeth, oh, amazing, this is amazing, so what do you think? It hurts there, it hurts there, it hurts there
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