저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
변동 MACD 지표로 TQQQ와 SOXL을 매매하고, 매도 신호 시 나스닥100 인버스 ETF(PSQ 1x, QID 2x)로 전환하는 포트폴리오를 1998~2022 백테스트로 제시. 1억 원 가정 시 1x 인버스 조합 약 14억 원, TQQQ+인버스 단독 약 17억 원 등 높은 수익을 주장. 과거 백테스트 결과이며 세금 전 수치이고 향후 수익을 보장하지 않음. 2x/3x 인버스는 장기 투자에 피하라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, I'm a former orca working at the Toyonaka 3rd store factory. Today's topic is the ultimate portfolio using T99 and soxl, where a good 1 million yen can become 2 billion yen in 20 years. I'm a former orca, but I'm working in a factory and have a low level of education. I'm working hard to improve my situation.
In 2022, I established a company and am aiming to make a fortune by the age of 32 through US stock and real estate investments. Having lost tens of millions of yen in investments, I'm now distributing investment strategies that prevent losses. I've also devised a variable MacD investment method to get rich as quickly as possible.
My basic investment stance and current investment stance are as follows. I'm currently building my portfolio around rebalancing and speed. I've also created an indicator for the variable MacD investment method, which allows me to buy and sell according to market and sell signals. If you hold onto soxl before the IT bubble, 1 million yen will become 90,000 yen, but by buying and selling with the appearance of Kaihin Makuhari, it will become 1.2 billion yen.
If you're interested, check out the description box. Now, let's get to the main topic. I'm going to go in now. I pushed myself too hard during the pandemic and it's come back again. My throat and nose are really sore and stuffy, so please excuse me if it's really hard to hear. This time, I'll be going into more detail about the ultimate portfolio using TQ99 and soxl, which I introduced last time.
This time, the verification of the ultimate portfolio will be done using a variable MACD indicator. Instead of buying TQ99 or soxl when a buy signal appears and selling T99 or soxl when a sell signal appears, when a sell signal appears, in addition to selling, a Nasdaq 100 bear ETF will be purchased.
Then, at the next timing, the Nasdaq 100 bear ETF will be sold and T99 or soxl will be purchased. This Nasdaq 100 bear ETF refers to a bear ETF that moves in the opposite direction, rising when the stock price falls. This variable MACD indicator has an extremely high win rate, and for the Nasdaq 100 from 1996 to 2022 It boasts a 100% win rate, so by introducing this bear ETF, you can profit from both downturns and upturns, creating a truly powerful portfolio that offers double the benefits.
This time, we will be testing this, and the test conditions are from December 22, 1998 to November 1, 2022, starting with 1 million yen, and trading will be done according to the indicator using a variable Mac. When selling, a bear ETF will be used. This time, we will analyze two, T99 and soxl, so for T999, we will trade using the optimal parameters of NDX, and when a sell signal appears, we will short the Nasdaq 100 bear ETF.
For soxl, we will trade using the optimal parameters of Sox, and when a sell signal appears, we will short the Nasdaq 100 bear ETF. Since there is no bear ETF for the Soxl index, this time we will short the Nasdaq 100. First, as pattern 1, we will use T99, soxl, and a 1x bear ETF. The pattern uses T999, soxl, and a 2x bear ETF.
The pattern uses T999, soxl, and a 3x bear ETF, but previous testing showed that the 3x version resulted in huge losses, so this time we will only test with the 1x and 2x versions. And since we will be testing T999 and soxl together, we will split the 1 million yen in half and test with 500,000 yen each.
First, we will look at the buy/sell signals of the indicators on a variable Mac. This is the buy/sell signal for Nasdaq 100ndx, and this is the buy/sell sin for the Soxl index. Regarding this Soxl buy/sell signal, the win rate has increased by a whopping 10% compared to last time, and the performance has more than doubled.
In terms of performance from 1996 to the present (2022), the win rate is an astonishing 91% and the performance has reached 10,787%, making it the optimal parameter buy/sell signal. Even with the 1x index, it is an astonishing 5.5 times that of holding. This parameter allows us to increase our holdings by 5.5 times.
This time, soxl will use this to verify, and as a verification model for bear ETFs, for the Nasdaq 100 1x room ETF we will use PSQ ProShares Short 99 which is listed in the US, and for the Nasdaq 100 2x room ETF we will use QID ProShares Ultra Short 99. So this time, in order to analyze from December 1998, we have created a virtual PSQ and a virtual QID.
First, here is the virtual PSQ Nasdaq 100 which is simply the opposite and adjusted by the number. Assuming the price of PSQ when it was released was 1 million, as of November 1, 2022, the real one is $60,600.49 and the virtual one is $60,600.47, so there is almost no difference. There is a bit of a noticeable difference in between, but in the end there is no difference, and here is the 2x bear QID, which was also initially released at $1 million, and in the end the real one is The current value is $1216.37 and the virtual value is $1216.78, so there is almost no difference.
We will use these two for our verification. We will verify by purchasing TQ99 and soxl when buying in accordance with the buy/sell signals of the variable MACD mentioned earlier, and closing the positions and then investing in a bear-type ETF when selling. Before verifying with the bear-type ETF, let's look at the performance of TQ alone and soxl alone.
First, here is the performance of T999 alone. We have published this last time as well, but by trading 1 million yen on December 22, 1998 using the variable MACD, it has become 1,109,440,000 yen as of November 1, 2022. Now let's look at the soxl pattern under the exact same conditions. The performance here is even better, with a result of 994,620,000 yen.
When we verified with the previous parameters, it was 640 million yen, so it has improved tremendously. Now, finally, we will announce the verification results with the bear-type ETF incorporated. First, I started with a 1x bear with 1 million yen, splitting it in half to 500,000 yen for T999 and the remaining 500,000 yen for soxl.
I began trading on December 22, 1998, and when selling, I incorporated a 1x Nasdaq bear. As a result, T999 was worth 866.45 million yen and soxl was worth 546.75 million yen, totaling a staggering 1.4132 billion yen. Just 1 million yen turned into over 1.4 billion yen! This is the highest amount I've achieved in any of my tests so far.
Next, let's look at a 2x bear. Here are the test results: I invested 500,000 yen each in T99 and soxl, and as of November 1, 2022, T999 was worth 461.61 million yen and soxl was worth 171.04 million yen, for a total of 632.66 million yen. The conclusion I can draw from these results is that when selling with a variable MACD indicator, a 3x bear is...
Neither a 2x bear nor a 1x bear ETF is the most optimal choice. The previous test combined T99 and SOXL, but we also tested what would happen if we tested only T999 and a 1x bear ETF. The results are as follows: Starting with 1 million yen, trading T999 and a bear ETF from December 22, 1998, the investment will exceed 2 billion yen in 2021.
The final valuation on November 1st will be 1,732,900,000 yen. The highest amount was achieved by using T999 and a 1x bear ETF. Looking at the asset level, the valuation exceeded 100 million yen in 2013. Well, this is a test before tax, so the actual value will be a little later, but before tax, it surpassed 100 million yen in 2013.
Just 1 million yen reached 100 million yen in less than 15 years. This is incredibly surprising, isn't it? This is truly the strongest portfolio for building wealth as quickly as possible. Now, let's move on to the summary of this strongest portfolio. This is the final summary. In the performance test from December 22, 1998 to November 1, 2022, the top performer was T99991x Bear 2, followed by T999soxl1y Bear, and then a combination of T9999 only, TQ999 and 1x Bear, or perhaps just TQ99 alone.
The best performance was achieved by incorporating 2x or 3x Bears, so please absolutely avoid using 2x or 3x Bears in long-term investments. We will now look at the period from 1998 to 2010, the time of the market crash. This is the update for that period. Around the time of the 2000 Lehman Shock, the orange line of the 2x Bear certainly rose dramatically, but it lost to T99soxl in the subsequent rise.
Then there was the 2008 Lehman Shock, and during this Lehman Shock, the orange line jumped to second place, but the final When we move into a bull market, we can see that it inevitably weakens. So even in this crashing market, we can see that TQ99 1x bear and TQ99 and soxl 1x bear are quite excellent.
Well, this video is getting long, so next time we will look at the specific methods of managing the strongest portfolio. We will examine what you should actually buy and how the exchange rate will affect it, so I hope you will look forward to the next video as well. Also, please consider subscribing to the channel and joining the membership.
And also, I am very sorry that this video is quite difficult to hear. I worked too hard staying up all night despite the coronavirus, so it has gotten quite bad. I will continue to provide useful information to everyone in the future, so please look forward to it. Now, let's try this massage machine for the first time.
This is no good. Yes, switch on. What can you tell from this? It's funny. It's funny. Look at it at the maximum, maximum, maximum. Look at this slowly.
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