저자: Shachi · 외국인
요약 보기
나스닥100이 13,000선을 이탈해 주봉상 헤드앤숄더 형태이며 기술적으로 나쁘다고 주장. SOXL은 과열 가능성이 있어 위험하다는 입장. 1994년부터 SOX 지수를 3배 레버리지로 가정한 가상 SOXL 백테스트를 보여주며, 일시금 투자 시 IT버블·리먼 이후 큰 손실 구간이 있었음을 강조. 정액 적립식이 더 나은 결과를 냈고, 3배 레버리지는 2배보다 불리하다고 설명. 2022년 4월 기준 가격 판단과 향후 예측은 파트2로 넘김.
다듬은 글
4 IT Bubble If you invest 10 million yen in MINESOX, the current price is 4 Hello, it is Shachi, and today's theme is investing, and I want everyone to see this, the worst-case scenario assuming an IT bubble, and the truth about investing, so this is a must-see for anyone investing in SOXL. At the end of the video, I will also talk about future market outlooks and predictions, so please watch until the end.
My profile is as above, so please take a look if you are interested. My investment style is to invest 50,000 yen in Nasdaq every month on Rakuten, average down on SOXL on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, target emerging markets as well as India's second-best ETF, and play around with the rest of the individual stocks and leveraged ETFs.
My target portfolio is as shown on the right. This channel is basically a channel specializing in leveraged Nasdaq and SOXL, and delivers data analysis, economic indicator analysis, latest news analysis, and technical analysis that everyone finds troublesome and doesn't want to do, in an easy-to-understand animated format.
This channel is different from hype channels or mental training channels that focus on holding onto stocks; it provides meaningful content that can be used in trading. Please subscribe to the channel and click the notification button to wait for updates. Now, let's get down to business. The current Nasdaq 100 chart has broken below the 13,000-point line that I've been talking about, and has formed a head and shoulders pattern with three peaks on the weekly chart.
Technically, this is a very bad chart shape. From here on, it's impossible to know how far it will fall. I've been telling everyone about this uncertainty about the future and predictions of a decline in my videos for a long time now. And while everyone is diligently buying more during the crash, I have consistently argued that it is still overpriced and that I shouldn't buy.
What has been attracting attention during this decline is SOXL, the devil's 3.5x conductor bull ETF. There were many SOXL buyers in the distance during this decline, and there were many tweets and reports of people buying more. What I've been saying all along is pr I've been telling people that it's overpriced, so I want them to buy it when it becomes cheaper and is on an upward trend, but it's not my money, so I ca n't really say anything, and there's a possibility it will go up, so I couldn't be too insistent.
But now that Nasudaa 500 has fallen below the 13,000 point mark, I thought I'd talk about the risks of sUoooo XL this time. The economy has ups and downs, but there is a cycle of economic growth. This economic cycle is when economic recession and economic expansion occur alternately, and it is said that this cycle comes every 10 years.
And for the last 10 years, or to be precise, since the Lehman Shock, it's been 14 years, right? For the last 14 years, the economy has been expanding. And here is the chart for so xl. From 2010, when the Lehman Shock ended, to 2022, although there was a big crash called the Corona Shock in between, it grew steadily upward.
The stock price has increased more than 100 times. This SOX index does not include charts from the IT bubble and the Lehman Shock, which are considered recessionary periods. This time, we want to do a simulation related to recessionary periods, so we will use this index for analysis. That's right, the SOX index.
This SOX index has data from May 4, 1994. So we will use this SOX index and simulate using SOXL, which is like tripling the daily price movements. The simulation method is to verify how much money would have been made if 10 million yen had been invested in a lump sum on May 4, 1994. And this chart is the virtual SOXL, which is the original KS multiplied by XL and then tripled.
The orange is the original coefficient XL and the blue is the virtual SOXL. For about the 6th year after starting operations, the deviation was not that big, but as the price grew, a slight discrepancy began to occur. At the bottom of the COVID-19 pandemic, the original was 4 needles, but the virtual...
The original takes 3.8, and at its peak in early 2022, the original took 72.9, while the virtual one took 62.9. As of April 29th, the price of the original coefficient xl takes 23.6, while so xl takes 20.7. There is some error, but you can see that the difference is not that large. This slight discrepancy is because so xl's benchmark index changed from the SOCKS index to the IC semiconductor index midway through.
Also, since it is an ETF, it is a product that aims for a 300% return so as not to deviate from the original index, so some deviation will occur. Another reason is the adjustment of constituent stocks. There was an adjustment by the director to increase the bond holdings of TCL during the crash, and I think these kinds of small stock adjustments are included.
So it is not possible to create a virtual so xl that fits perfectly, but you can think of the chair as xl. This time we will use this virtual so xl to look at 1994. Let's assume you invested 10 million yen in a lump sum on May 4th and look at the price changes. First, we jump straight to the peak during the IT bubble, where the total assets of this SOXL were a staggering 846 million yen.
Then, the bottom after the IT bubble, here it was 160,000 yen. And the peak before the Lehman Shock, here it was 370,000 yen. And the bottom after the Lehman Shock, here it was 6,300 yen. And the peak at the beginning of 2022 during the COVID-19 bubble was 2.93 million yen. And the price as of April 29th is 960,000 yen.
That's 960,000 yen! Despite investing 10 million yen in a lump sum and managing it for 27 years, the price has fallen to less than one-tenth of its original value. You might think, "No way, that can't be true," but it is. Some of you might think, "Well, that's because of the IT bubble," so next we'll look at the period from the Lehman Shock.
We'll start our analysis from the point where you invested 10 million yen in a lump sum on January 1st, 2006, before the Lehman Shock. Here is the bottom after the Lehman Shock. The investment amount was 520,000 yen, and this was at its highest price during the bubble era, 817,020,000 yen, and as of April 29th, it's worth a whopping 26,840,000 yen.
In summary, it's only increased 2.7 times in 16 years. The underlying index, SOX, has skyrocketed in price by nearly 6 times, but with 3x leverage, it only increased 2.7 times. In other words, to summarize, whether you invested 100 million, 200 million, or hundreds of millions in May 1994, or 10 million or 20 million during the downturn of the IT bubble, investing 50,000 yen on March 11, 2010, when SOX was set up during an economic expansion phase, would have yielded a higher final return.
Did you know this? So, the huge sums of money like 100 million or 200 million that you invested before the real rise began will all disappear into bubbles. The precious capital you used to purchase at this in-between time will become worthless. And SOX The most insidious thing about xl is that it only has a chart showing its performance from March 2012, when the economic expansion phase was about to begin.
In short, it only shows the very attractive chart of the 12 years when it was at its highest ever. Everyone is using that to run their simulations. As a result, there are no YouTubers who accurately discuss the risks during an economic recession. In my video, I'm pushing so xl, and I felt it was necessary to accurately explain the risks during an economic recession, so I made this video.
Well, for the past three months, I've been using economic indicators and technical analysis to show that the current market is dangerous and will fall further, and that I wouldn't buy it. But I received a lot of really heartless comments on those videos. I've been working hard to analyze and create videos to explain the risks, but I've received comments like these, and it's been a rather sad 12 months.
First of all, when the index is rising so much, why does it fall so much just because it's tripled? To explain that, it's because of the depreciation of the price, and the tripled aspect is a huge problem. As a test, we compared two scenarios: one where 10,000 yen is reduced by 10% and then increased by 10% three times, and another where it is reduced by 30% three times.
The scenario with the 10% reduction ultimately results in a price of 9,702 yen, but the scenario with the 30% reduction sees the price drop to 750,035 yen. This is the big difference between 1x and 3x leverage. With that in mind, I'd like you to look at this chart. On the left is soxl and on the right is the original index, the Socks Index.
This chart covers the period from 2020 to the present. What I want you to see is that while soxl has fallen to pre-COVID levels, the Socks Index is still trading at about 1.6 times higher than pre-COVID levels. This shows just how significant the price reduction is. This indicates that even if the original Socks Index reaches its highest point, the price of soxl is still at a miserable level.
So, how should you buy soxl? One solution is dollar-cost averaging. So, next... Let's simulate a monthly investment plan starting from May 4, 1994, to April 29, 2022, where we invest 10,000 yen each month. This will increase the principal to 3.36 million yen. We will then examine three different simulation patterns.
First, we use the original index, the Socks Index. Second, we double the original index to create a hypothetical Socks Index called Socks XL. Third, we use a hypothetical Socks Index tripled. Let's start with the original Socks Index and begin investing 10,000 yen each month from May 4, 1994. At its peak during the IT bubble, it was 42 million yen.
At its lowest point after the IT bubble, it was 760,000 yen. At its peak before the Lehman Shock, it was 2.67 million yen. At its lowest point after the Lehman Shock, it was 910,000 yen. At its peak during the COVID-19 bubble, it was 320,020 yen. And the current investment amount is 237 million yen.
Even at 1x multiplier, this is an incredible performance relative to the principal of 3.36 million yen. Next, let's look at the second Socks Index... This is leveraged. Starting with monthly contributions of 10,000 yen on May 4, 1994, the highest price during the IT bubble was 13.48 million yen, the highest price after the IT bubble was 140,000 yen, the highest price before the Lehman Shock was 1.39 million yen, the lowest price after the Lehman Shock was 140,000 yen, the highest price during the COVID-19 bubble was 73 million yen, and the current price is 30 million yen.
Next, finally, we have a virtual s turned into xl. Starting with monthly contributions of 10,000 yen from May 4, 1994, the highest price during the IT bubble was 24 million yen, the lowest price after the IT bubble was 20,000 yen, the highest price before the Lehman Shock was 840,000 yen, the lowest price after the Lehman Shock was 220,000 yen, and the highest price during the COVID-19 bubble was 111 million yen, and the current price is 36.5 million yen.
Here is a table summarizing all of that. Looking at them side by side like this, the leveraged 2nd and 3rd are already at the bottom. As you can see, the price has become quite tragic. Regarding the virtual SOXL, even though I've been saving 10,000 yen every month since May 4th, 1994, it was only 26,000 yen at the bottom after the Lehman Shock.
Well, even so, you can see that the performance is better than when you put in 10 million, 20 million, or even 100 million yen at an intermediate point. Well, the principal was 3.36 million yen, so you can see how useful dollar-cost averaging, or dollar-cost averaging, is. Also, as Professor Kazemaru said, leverage and 3x leverage are completely different products.
So, when taking on the risk of 3x leverage and going for a large final valuation, 2x leverage performs better. This is another point I want you to pay attention to. If anyone wants the Excel sheet used in this simulation, I'll put it in the community for subscribers. If there are many comments from people who want it, I'll try to accommodate them.
Also, this video has become extremely long. I think I'll make it a two-part series. I'll upload part 2 the next day. In part 2, I'll talk about things you should absolutely NOT do when investing in Eggzel and things you absolutely must understand when investing in XL, as well as my predictions for future stock price movements. So please subscribe to the channel and wait for part 2. Now, on to part 2...
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