저자: JoeMAA · 외국인
요약 보기
1월 STAX 보고서 기준 Schwab 고객 행동을 분석. 1월 중순 리스크 회피 후 월말 딥 매수가 집중되었고, 딥시크 충격일(1/27경)에 엔비디아·팔란티어·브로드컴이 주요 매수 종목으로 나타남. 1월 STAX 지수는 4개월 만에 하락했으나 S&P500은 약 1% 상승. 실적 시즌에서 S&P500 EPS 서프라이즈 비율이 높고 매그7 이외 종목이 시장을 이끌어 시장 폭 개선 평가. 관세 불확실성과 고객 심리 악화가 변수이며 VIX는 20 수준으로 과도한 공포는 아님.
다듬은 글
let's welcome in Joe MAA head trading derivative strategist Charles Schwab and Company to feature and speak about the latest January Stacks report lots of proprietary information lots of folks trading uh what were some of the themes here well it's a tough follow following the uh the advertising segment but I'll do my best here I mean the bottom line was what we saw in January but I would I would say you divide that month up into a couple different weeks and you see two different uh two different stories so beginning of the month um as the market pulled back you know that kind of that first week that January 7th pullback that kind of led into the mid Monon uh we saw investors kind of pull back on some of their risk appetite and maybe contrary to what you saw in the fall and the summer you really didn't see dip buying uh really take place until that last week and that last week and you know I'll call it uh deep seek Monday if you will that's when we saw uh retail clients kind of get back uh and and buying a little bit more heavily towards the end of the month but overall overall uh the index was down the stacks index was down for the first time in four months which was interesting because it's a little bit of Divergence from what you saw on the S&P 500 which was up a little over 1% we actually saw the stacks pull back so you know I think my T my biggest takeaway is that you know there was a rotation maybe out of some of the um uh higher beta uh sectors like uh communic ation Services uh it little bit more movement into things you might consider a little bit more defensive utilities energy real estate but that last week that last week of the month is where investors really started to kind of step back into some of those higher risk assets it's very interesting because you said deep seek Monday saw risk appetites return especially for NVIDIA so people we're just waiting for uh the stocks they like at a cheaper price it seems absolutely and what I would say Nvidia paler uh broadcom those were three stocks I saw a lot of buying on that day uh and if you look you take a step back um JB Morgan was talking about uh $8 billion dollar of equity inflows in the retail sector that week that specific week that last week of uh January we saw something very similar here uh with our clients and that like I said they were looking for those de buying opportunities I mean if you remember Nicole Nvidia was down 1771 18% on that Monday and and and as we know uh weed talked about this many times I think probably 10 out of the 12 months in uh in 2024 Nvidia was at least one of the top two Buys so it continues to to be that way it was a top buy again in January Nvidia paler and apple were the three top buys but you know as as I mentioned investors are have been a little bit more selective in the timing of those buys yeah and and apples are back on the buyback list you mentioned that one um Tesla was on the before I get to the sales you know this 35 million client accounts or CL that I believe that you guys are looking at Tesla was on there paler Apple Microsoft Nvidia final thoughts on what they were buying and how they were buying it yeah so I think if you look at kind of maybe some of the stock momentum throughout the course of the month um you know it was the pullbacks that uh that led to the buys Apple had rallied up uh in into earnings before kind of pulling back a little bit as well too so that uh gave gave investors a chance to to buy a little bit a little bit cheaper than it would have been at the beginning of the month um a couple of takeaways from the Cs though you know Disney uh Boeing Bank of America if you remember the you know earnings really kind of kicked off in Earnest with the financials and a lot of the financial stocks really rallied uh into that and post earnings um we saw some trimming of that um and with Disney what was interesting is you know Disney had rallied pretty pretty strong um and same thing with Boeing had ried pretty strong in December before kind of pulling back so there was some trimming at a strength there um what I will say is this you know every month we look at what we call this behavioral study so the stacks is really behavioral measures what clients are doing but then we also pair that with a Trader sentiment survey which is really attitudinal and this was like one of the first times that we had seen a big drop in bullishness from the attitudinal side from our from our Trader populations are a little bit more and more becoming concerned about maybe some of the Tariff information and talk that we're seeing so it'll be really interesting to kind of see as that comes more to the for front here in February whether or not that carries forward yeah I noted uh here the RSI shows Market might be running out of steam um bearish Divergence right but sometimes those could be sort of contrarian indicators right U because when when everybody starts running or is scared that's the time you're supposed to buy and the opposite right when everybody's getting greedy you supposed to take some profits um you know when we think about the mag 7 many of them didn't necessarily come out with great earnings but earnings overall have been relatively positive I mean so Market breath has improved absolutely I mean if you look at the fact that we've got about a 70 78% earnings beat on the S&P 500 somewhere around 60% on the revenue beat those are both good numbers what I really think is interesting and you brought this up Nicole is the idea that the mag 7 has not LED this time nor have we needed it which to me speaks of a broadening kind of below the index level if if you were to tell me you know heading into this earning cycle that the mag 7 could be down you know close to 2% from where it was leading into uh their earning cycle which basically started about 2 weeks ago I would have thought and and I think a lot of people would have thought that the market couldn't withstand that just because of the market caps that they that they provide but given the fact that you know they haven't really performed that well maybe outside of meta uh to see the market doing what it's doing is pretty healthy yeah and what am I leaving out here I mean I think how people are feeling makes a big difference I mean there are a lot of worries about tariffs I think that's something because they just don't there's just not as much Clarity and uh first we thought we were getting 25% tariffs north and south of us and then those were put off for a month but you don't know whether or not those are going to be a one and done are they going to be over years um so I think that sort of leaves investors wondering are you finding they're going to fix income are are you finding safety plays at all sure yeah like I said I you know I think part of it was fixed income as you're talking about we saw a big inflow into that um and and you know that that's that tends to be something you see at the beginning of the year anyway and you can you can attribute some of I think the selling uh maybe to some carryover uh uh gains into the new year where people didn't want to necessarily carry those capital gains uh or didn't want to get rid of them in 2024 maybe they're carrying them over into 20 25 thinking there'll be a new tax policy that'll be more favorable so you could attribute some of it to that but I do think that overall from what we saw at least the first four weeks out of that five-week period there was a drisking that was kind of happening with our client base um and then you know as they as they had the opportunity to kind of pick and choose their spots that's where they bought the dip on some of those names yeah and you noted the SPX Trends um you know while facing near-term resistance still appears to be in an up uptrend we're not too far off of the highs the gold is at record highs I mean that's often a safe haven play um but the big picture is um the last thing I'll note is that the vix which you noted here in the stacks report that I was was reading through touched the 20 Level that's not 30 that's not 50 that's not 60 or 80 um so we've had those days 80 I remember you know so it's just not as bad as it seems on the big sell-off days final quick thought Joe MAA it's hard staying long volatility right now Nicole it really is I mean it if you kind of if if we take this as a microcosm and just take a big step back we've been really in a sideways channel for months now so playing the long volatility game you can do it maybe heading into some um events you know that was a big theme in January where we saw a lot of hedging activity heading into the inflation data the CPI and the PPI oh by the way we got that this week as well too but we're not seeing the same activity this time this go around it seems like hedgers are kind of taking a step back and and letting the markets do what they're going to do Joe MAA head trading derivative strategist Charles Schwan company thank you Joe great to see you
Comments 0