저자: JoeToay · 외국인
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AI 데이터센터 투자 확대로 브로드컴 수혜 전망, 마이크론은 과도한 하락으로 메모리 수요 대비 저평가라 주장, 알파벳은 실적 우려로 하락했으나 검색·AI 경쟁력과 저평가 근거로 매수 추천. 차트(Rick Duat)상 브로드컴은 지지 224 부근, 마이크론은 85~113 박스권, 알파벳은 182 지지 이탈 시 약세 전환 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
welcome back to trading 360 it's Friday I'm Nicole pedales it's time for the big three three stocks three charts three trades Rick duat will take us through the charts here to take us through the trades Joe toay portfolio manager of the rational Equity armor fund thank you both for being here Joe what you make of all the economic news that we got in today also that the bond yield ticking a little bit higher it's at 450 now on the 10e some of your thoughts about all the action we've gotten in I'm noticing right now I got the 10year up at 450 that's a notable increase I think it's been a s relief recently for it been coming off of the 460 level that's something to watch uh maybe it's just a sign of strength in the economy that uh we're going to be able to stay stronger for longer also a little bit of inflationary worries maybe uh the uh Bond Traders are worried about the long-term effects of inflation with this strong economy understood so you have a few trades for us here today um this has been a winning week for the NASDAQ and the S&P not the Dow you're watching broadcom first stop tell me a little bit about this name and why it stands out to you today for a trade yeah so I think the key to the market is going to be the data center build out uh there's a you know the AI is starting to evolve a little bit we're seeing some big performers in some of the software companies like pal and but the data center buildout is still front and foremost in this market we're seeing Capital expenditures uh way bigger than previously thought in spite of what we heard uh out of the deepsea rumors so people are spending money Handover fist we saw Amazon yesterday uh spending just an unbelievable 105 billion uh in capital expenditures that came after Google uh you know earlier in the week was at 75 billion plus so uh it's just almost like an arms race of data centers and you know it's like uh if you're going to have one data center I'm going to need two data centers and it's just a a NeverEnding fight for the ability to process more data so the whole Community needs to be lifted here yes Nvidia is going to come to mind uh uh there is concerned maybe some uh export concerns from Nvidia but the rest of the community is still there broadcom's a company uh that is absolutely a big part of that mix uh their networking capability is uh really important it's really crucial to that mix and it doesn't really matter which chips go in there broadcom is going to be a winner on this data center buildout okay and that's the idea a lot of folks have been talking about how to play um AI overall and software Hardware data centers um Etc let's hear what Rick says about the charts Rick well I like what Joe said about the data centers and everything because uh you know no piece of information is useless and the more you can collect the more you need to store so I mean it seems like it's just something that is going to be increasing demand in the future here but as we look at the chart we can see that there's a a couple interesting areas uh to consider here we've got uh several volume nodes nearby to current prices uh one at 238 and one at 228 or so and price action recently has been rather odd uh very choppy after we had a large gap up on earnings in December after bumping up against a repeated resistance area that light green line near about 186 notice there's very little volume between about uh 180 uh 186 to like 210 or so that's when the volume really starts to pick up at these more elevated levels so this is the important area we're kind of in between those two nodes right now here as price uh declines a little bit here one area to watch is the Confluence of our yellow 21-day exponential moving average and our white steeper short-term trend line there that comes in right around 224 uh so that's a supportive area to consider in terms of resistance we've got our other node near about 237 and then our plus one standard deviation Channel at about 245 before we hit those those previous highs near 252 or so Nicole yeah we've seen some choppy action here um thank you for all of that Rick on those charts final thoughts Joe on this name yeah uh 250 recent High um you know maybe those after uh recent earnings I think uh we're going to it's we're going to see a lot we get earnings coming out we got you know uh some of these chip companies start reporting these earnings I think we're going to see a lot of their projections uh for the fiscal year so um yeah there's there's a lot of risk to downside we go back to where we were before the last earnings all the way down you know 180 so uh makes sense to play this name I like playing all these names with protection but yeah I think uh I think we're close to alltime size in the market because of the data center people are spending money on these data centers the companies that are making the data centers they should be at all at at alltime highs too right understood okay next up of Micron so some of these names as we're saying have really been beaten down off the highs and um still great companies but right when we saw Micron at 157 that was last summer now it's at $92 um now it's on your radar Joe in a big way so tell us more yeah these are just another component I think people are just kind of forgetting everyone's talking about the semiconductor chips that's the most important it's the most expensive it's the most Hightech component of a data center but people will need to have memory cards as a part of this whole picture and uh and Micron is right there they're going into these data centers uh I think this is just a critical component of the uh of the whole ordeal and I think uh uh being down on the weakness from some of the semiconductors is just kind of wrong for in my opinion uh there's uh there's a need there's a demand for these products uh uh for all the money that is being you know dumped out of uh dumped out of these chips and into some of the companies like paler and don't get me wrong I love paler early early owner of palente tier uh I think it's a fantastic company but right now at $115 I can't really justify uh buying paler rather than these three names so yeah I'm just saying it doesn't make sense that some of some of the other parts of the AI trade are going bananas but the raw data the ra meat and potatoes of it are not okay um what do you think here I mean this is name that obviously is well off the highs Rick what do the charts tell you yes it is well off the highs but uh you know that that high point was kind of extreme that was not where a lot of the price action typically was as you can see from our volume profile study once again a lot of the the trading came in around 130 and 121 so even though we did have that big spike up around uh shortly before the last uh the earnings event in June uh for much of the time price has been pretty consist consistently between about 85 and 113 that's our green and red uh trend lines or excuse me horizontal lines there and volume profile gets a little bit Messier down at these levels here because there's several key areas of trading here so look for those nodes look for the spikes uh they come in roughly like 90 95 the the point of control is at like 103 and then again at 110 so those are the heavy trading areas here notice as well our moving averages are are clustered quite closely together uh they are uh uh uh uh trending downward for right now here price I think you could argue is maybe even compressing into more of a symmetrical triangle range here so uh the absolute points though to consider 85 to the downside 113 to the upside that's that's pretty much uh pretty clear Road uh Road marks for where we've been uh for much of the past year okay thank you for that um and your thoughts there Joe based on what Rick is showing us yeah well I think we're on the lower end of the range I don't understand why it would be on the lower end of the range uh still it makes sense to be protective on all of these names uh there's a lot of risk uh in the market broadly a lot of headline risk uh going out there uh we had two straight weekends of like huge down moves in the market we'll see if we can get through a weekend without one uh but uh I think it just makes sense to just look at the upside something optimistic here uh there's so many highflying parts of the market there's so many things about the AI trade but sometimes you just got to uh stick with the you know stick with what's simple and what's simple is usually right this is a component that is needed for these data centers we're building uh as many data centers as we can and uh you know this this company uh this company is right in the heart of it all right and last but not least this is a real Tech themed big three today um alphabet really got walloped um still for the week down almost 9% after its quarterly report a lot of scrutiny on cloud and capex spend and all that um right now down 2% where do you think this could be headed yeah I don't get it uh I loved their earnings every important metric was spot on for me just a hair smaller uh hair a hair Miss on their Cloud Revenue which we're going to 30% is that we really uh going to be that upset about about any misses uh they're spending the money the street doesn't like that the fact that they're spending the money I trust Google by the way uh this earnings they became the most profitable company uh in the world they're making more money uh than Apple right now so uh everything is working for Google people were worried that the search is going to get hit with the AI uh I don't see it I think as long as they keep that brand uh you know uh in place where when you think of searching you think you're going to Google something they're going to be fine uh and uh they're they're hitting their AI production uh Gemini has been a huge Improvement so I think but I'm buying this pullback 100% adding to my position in Google uh without a doubt uh their Cloud growth is going to be there uh and they're spending the money they're spending it cheaper than some of these other companies because they can uh they have their own their own products to put into these Cloud uh these uh their infrastructure play all right so you're a fan and you think it's at even at a better price right now Rick your thoughts yeah it's about about a 10 10% drop or so from those intraday highs that we saw just before earnings so uh probably a uh not not the most fun move for uh someone who uh got in at those highs there but you when we look here we can see that the the volume note in this in this case uh the nearest one to us rather was about 190 that matches up roughly with those previous highs that we saw in July that was a the the old high there um and then we can also see that we've fallen through some other important areas we gave up our yellow 21-day exponential moving average our solid blue line which is our our linear regression line our line of best fit and our orange 63-day exponential moving average so we've fallen through some some key points here notice as well on the RSI that our green trend line has been broken and we've broken through that 50 midline as well so much more of a shift toward the uh the bearish side for this momentum indicator here if we were to uh keep moving lower a couple points of interest I think first would be our Dash green line there at 182 that represents a gap that we had back in July a high point that we had in November and then another low point after a gap up in December so it's one of these these key price levels where there's a lot of activity uh you know stopping and starting at this at this level here um so that's one and also if we were to break below that blue trend line there the Gap uh that we formed in uh December would come in around 176 that also lines up with with a sizable volume node so those those are some downside areas to consider and the upside would be retaking that volume node near 190 and uh breaking out of that range of from 197 to 202 Nicole yeah understood great to see you Rick duat thank you for the charts each day here on the big three Joe togate we think about all these mag S names it's amazing how much meta has been um outpacing that's up now looking for the 15th in day in a row of gains when you think about the mag 7 you did mention you like um here Google today alphabet Google any of the others that stand out to you yeah no I I own uh I think I'm I own them all uh some are more expensive than others meta is actually like Google uh has a relatively cheaper PE ratio so another reason to like those two names uh you know I think Google maybe is getting some uh you know um a little bit of uh trade War uh you know uh just getting hit um you know on the on on that um on the Chinese news but um I for me for me uh yes it does make sense to look at these valuations it is hard to grow for these really really big companies when they're at these really really big valuations you really you know just the numbers just keep on getting bigger and they keep on keep on hitting so that's hard but it's it's easier for companies like meta and Google actually when they're you know sub30 at least sub 25 in both cases uh to to to hit these numbers and justify this growth Joe to gay Rick to cat thank you both for the big three today really appreciate it
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