저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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실업률은 경기침체의 선행지표가 아니라 후행지표라고 주장한다. 역사적으로 침체 시작 후 실업률이 상승했고, 현재 경기 호황·낮은 실업률을 근거로 한 안심론은 기만적이라고 비판한다. 대신 연준의 긴축(금리·인플레이션 대응), 임금-물가 상승 악순환, 마진 부채 과다, 장단기 금리차 축소(역전 임박) 등을 침체 선행 위험요인으로 제시한다. 의회의 구제 가능성은 낮다고 본다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meek kevin here yesterday multiple of you in my course member discussions asked me about what i thought about the quote biggest indicator of a stock market crash naturally i wanted to know what this indicator was i like being aware of dangers as well as positive indicators coming that way i can make sure to flip-flop when i need to well i was read the following quote about stock market crashes and i want to know what you think a quick note by the way if you do want private live streams and to be a course member you get lifetime access only one payment there is a v-day coupon code down below and v-day's already on monday all right folks here's the quote when you see a recession coming it's most likely led by unemployment when people lose their jobs earnings go down people cut back today is the total opposite it's a freaking booming economy today we're off to the moon those are two quotes uh the we're off to the moon part is pretty close to this uh but this was was the thesis here is that okay when you see a recession coming it's most likely led by unemployment and i thought to myself okay so maybe we should look at charts on unemployment to see if unemployment's going up because actually it sounds really exciting my gut says unemployment's actually really low if anything it's falling and it makes me want to invest everything i have and flip-flop and that way i can also be on the rocket ship that goes off to the moon see i know that everyone's spending money like crazy i know people are getting paid like crazy more than ever before people are getting paid so much so that household checking account balances have never been this high it's amazing things are booming right now look at earnings from the fourth quarter everybody's spending all the money they got parks at disney had their revenue beat expectations 17 because people are spending so much money people feel so rich that 50 percent of people are upgrading to skip the line you don't usually see that kind of stuff the per capita spend at disney is the highest it has ever been before that means even though you could have less guests going to disney world or disneyland the booming economy it's true so when they say that a recession coming is most likely led by unemployment i'm curious about this so i think to myself okay well i'm a numbers guy okay i like statistics and facts and logic uh unfortunately those things are not extremely popular on youtube but that's okay let's go ahead and look at the chart and let's see if we can corroborate this thesis so this here is a chart of our unemployment rate in the united states the gray lines here are when there were recessions and the spikes in the blue lines here are spikes in the unemployment rate so let's go ahead and zoom in to let's say oh wait obviously the pandemic was a little interesting we could zoom into the pandemic too so it looks like we actually were in a recession while the unemployment rate was still three and a half percent let me hide myself there look at this we actually entered into a recession when we went from three and a half percent to four point four percent but we were almost done with the recession by the time the unemployment rate skyrocketed hmm okay what about 2008 maybe that's an anomaly okay 2008 looks like there were recession started technically over here in the early half of 2008 we had a stock market crash in september of 2008 the unemployment rate had gone from five to six percent but wait a minute it didn't actually skyrocket until the stock market until beyond like after when the stock market already bottomed in the first portion of 2009 it looks like it actually peaked in october of 2009 well after the stock market had already substantially recovered here in in the dot-com bubble looks like the the crash was really here end of 2000 2001 unemployment rate didn't really start going up until the end of 2001.
this is interesting it looks like the same that's true of the 2020 recession the pandemic recession the recession of oa the dot-com bubble the 1990s recession the early 80s recession the 70s recession the 19 well we got that one at both of the recessions in the 80s there and uh and then in the 70s wait a minute every single time there's a recession it looks like the unemployment rate goes up after we go into a recession so but wait a minute the quote that i'm being told everybody's freaking out about and being so excited about is when you see a recession coming it's most likely led by unemployment but wait a minute according to the statistics it actually looks like a recession happens first and then unemployment goes up which kind of makes sense because if you're a business and you think things are booming why would you lay people off it's only when we're in a technical recession that's when businesses appear to start cutting back at least based on the facts let's see if we can learn a little bit more here oh what's this investopedia lagging indicators they can clarify and confirm a pattern that is incurring over time but lagging indicators can only be known after the event that doesn't make them useless but they're known after an event the unemployment rate is one of the most reliable lagging indicators oh crap so we probably shouldn't be looking at the best indicator of a crash ever the unemployment rate because then we'd be really far behind the curve if the unemployment rate rose last month and the month before it indicates the overall economy has been doing more poorly and we may continue to do more poorly right the unemployment rate is a lousy recession indicator if you want to time the next recession the unemployment rate is the worst place to look the unemployment rate was low when the market crashed in september 08 we just saw that on the chart and kept rising way after the recession ended in march of 09 remember the fed bailed us out in feb of 09.
the unemployment rate is such a bad indicator of how well the economy is doing that it did not start increasing until five months after the official start of the recession of december 2007. here's some more research as well what's this the unemployment rate is often used to indicate economic strength but is also a lagging indicator and low unemployment is the result of economic growth not a precursor huh okay so wait a minute then we're getting duped when we're being told if we just look at the unemployment rate we're good now that's not to say that if unemployment is low the opposite is true recession is coming right it just means that if individuals are telling us hey kevin everything's fine there can't be a recession because unemployment is low and unemployment is a leading indicator it looks to me like whoever's saying that is either wrong uneducated or trying to deceive people into thinking that we're actually heading to the moon when that's not a fact or potential rationalization to say we're even remotely heading to the moon no other things could say we're heading to the moon but this is not one of them because the last thing we want is to have a stock market crash 25 to 40 percent and then see the unemployment rate go up we're in a recession but wait a minute we're already down 25 to 40 percent keep in mind recently the stock market is only bobbed around five to ten percent so what are actual leading indicators that are relevant to us today leading indicators things that tell us something before it's likely to happen not after well how about an accommodative federal an unaccommodative federal reserve that can't lower interest rates and won't lower interest rates because they're already at zero so they can't accommodate us with lower interest rates they've printed enough money digitally printed enough money so they can't print more money we actually have an unaccommodated fed that's so far behind the curve businesses are raising prices creating more inflation than ever before because they realize that inflation is not transitory that was a big mistake and it because we have inflation happening so much so right now the fed has to fight it and the fed's already told us they don't care about our stock prices to the extent that they affect jobs and inflation they care most drone power was literally asked this in the last meeting so don't kid yourself right now he does not care about stock prices he still thinks stock prices are elevated jerome powell is most worried about fighting inflation and if that means taking a little bit from the juicy wage market and dealing with the inflation issues that's what they're going to do especially since a wage price spiral has started to happen the last labor report showed that wage growth is up eight point eight percent on an annualized basis which is faster than the inflation rate is seven point five percent that means that people are actually getting paid more indicating more than inflation indicating that a wage price spiral has begun survey says that now the wage price spiral is actually decoupled from supply chain issues meaning that even if supply chain issues start getting better the wage price spiral could just take over margin debt is 60 higher than at any point in our history before if we had any kind of bumps in the road in the economy congress is unlikely to be able to do anything to bail us out why because right now republicans believe the entire reason we're facing problems is because of the inflationary spending of democrats meaning it's unlikely that for at least the next two years until potentially certainly not this midterm election i expect democrats to get reamed uh it's unlikely that over the next two years we're actually going to see anything happen we're going to have a lame duck congress so we're not getting bailed out by the fed we're not getting billed out by congress we're on our own here folks at the same time we're in a rising inflation environment rising price environment which sure leads to higher profits for businesses but that doesn't matter if multiples for businesses go down because the federal reserve is jacking up rates to potentially high in aggressive levels creating fear in the market leading potentially things like precious metals which have kind of been lagging to go up and stock multiples to come down another leading indicator is that the yield curve has flattened substantially fast over the last eight weeks the flattening of the yield curve could eventually lead to an inversion of the yield curve which is one of the best leading indicators of a recession and we're barreling right towards that indicator inverting so shoot if somebody is telling you that look how much our economy is booming look how low unemployment is you got your head in the sand you're being lied to now that just because the economy is booming and just because unemployment is low does not mean we are definitely going into a recession right the other indicators i talked about are risk factors for recession so you can't say oh well we're in a booming economy what's next recession well sure eventually that's always going to end up being true eventually so we have to look towards other leading indicators to tell us if we've got danger ahead but if somebody's telling us don't worry we're definitely not going into a recession because look how much people are spending look how low unemployment is they're lying to you through their teeth to get more subscribers because they're uneducated because they want to raise money for their fund and collect more fees from you and they're deceiving you into a false sense of security don't look at today's spending don't look at today's low employment to determine whether or not we are heading to a recession these are not indicators get educated on better indicators and if you want to subscribe to the channel i'll keep bringing them to you and check out those courses down below with that v day coupon 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