저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
연준(FOMC 의사록, 1월 5일 발표)에 놀라 포트폴리오를 현금 95%로 축소했다고 밝힘. 과거 12년간 하락 시 매수('buy the dip') 전략을 써왔으나 현재는 연준이 방향을 틀 때까지 매수를 중단하겠다고 함. 소형주 단기옵션 투기로 손실을 봤고, 상승 시장 종료 후 하락 사이클을 예상하며 금 4.99%와 소량 보유 외 현금 보유. 나머지 대부분은 본인의 플립플롭(번복) 이력에 대한 이야기.
다듬은 글
you know i always thought it would be cool to be a clown because i think i'm quite funny and especially as a kid i told everyone i wanted to be a comedian and everyone laughed at me now no one's laughing at me anymore but i wanted to make this video because the truth is i did paper hand and i'll explain in this video exactly why i'm a flip-flopping paper-handed weenie baby bear clown y xero fees so why did i paper hand well i paper-handed because j-pal scared the out of me and i paper-handed i didn't get margin called i have about four million dollars in taxable stock gains from 2021 and having just sold have another about four million in taxable stockings in 2022 already and hopefully a lot more to come now my portfolio did lose a chunk of value measuring from the third week of november to well now but honestly if you measured from the beginning of october to now it's not that vastly different those three weeks in november were pretty wild and honestly it was more like a little bump in the road that of course everybody wishes they could have sold at the top at but you can't be perfect and time the market all the time but honestly like i said three weeks earlier my portfolio wasn't far off with the exception of a firm well for that one that probably needs a video of its own but at this point i'm preserving capital because i really believe the fed is going to rake us over the coals they're going to ream us so hard and i don't want to get dreamed now even though i flip-flopped because of j-pal particularly the fomc minutes that came out on january 5th which scared the crap out of me in fact i covered it live and i panicked live in that video i think i had like a 50-minute breakdown like not like a breakdown of the minutes even though it was a breakdown of the minutes but like also like a physical and mental breakdown it was uh 54 minutes long and it's titled the fed just crashed stocks the worst report yet in case you want to watch it that that like putting the pieces of the puzzle back together that's what set me off but the problem is i didn't do anything with my portfolio because i've been so damn programmed to just buy the dip all the time by the dip like i became the meme of by the dip and literally been buying the dip for the last 12 years in both stocks and real estate like that's that's just what i do and it quite honestly it took 16 days to fully realize what the f was about to happen now i realized obviously i could be wrong going forward and i don't recommend anybody trying to try to time the market even though i believe we could be in for a big cyclical rotation where we go from the top of a cycle to the bottom of a cycle and i just want to move from the top half to the bottom half in cash uh i vapor ended like a little weeny because well quite frankly i think shit's gonna hit the fan much worse so right now i'm 95 cash 4.99 gold and like 0.1 percent some other stuff i do still have stocks and i do still hold amc and again i didn't get margin called i do still have 24 million dollars in real estate though but that's also a topic for a different video and that's in addition to that percentage i just talked about which is about another 20 mil so anyway uh it's worth talking about flip-flopping so after i tried to uh well basically gamble on the federal reserve meeting which was literally going full and i mean this in like the wall street bets terminology full betting on short term options on small caps like literally stupid i literally wrote in my alerts in my stocks in psychology and money group do not do this i am going full like i literally wrote that that i'm going hard on on this bet it was a total freaking gamble uh and i lost more money uh betting on these short term options which is very stupid and i knew that going in but i didn't listen to myself so it's kind of like i do as i say not as i do thing now i don't think there's an excuse for that kind of behavior because i'm supposed to be an example but at least i acknowledged it when it happened uh and i do think the reason for that like if there's any justification was honestly because i was a bit shell-shocked because i really like it's so weird to go from 12 years of by the dip to flip to now being a bear and everybody hating you because nobody likes bears but anyway uh you know and again i i don't think that uh you know you know by the dip is over or whatever for me it is okay like i just can't buy the dip right now not now i will buy the dip when the fed u-turns which right now they're you turning against us not towards us i want a u-turn towards us that's when i buy the dip but what i do want to do is oh my gosh there's an earthquake happening right now oh that was so cool oh my gosh that's like one of the first earthquakes that i think i've ever felt in california that was amazing that was really cool okay but anyway well i hope there's not another one but anyway so uh let's let me talk about flip-flopping so uh i decided that i am a flip-flopper i i think it's actually a good good representation so i think weenie baby and flip-flopper and all this is actually appropriate because really the only thing that i haven't flipped on in my life is lauren i wanted to start a taxi company in 2008 in high school because i thought it was stupid how hard it was to call a taxi and get a ride like i hated waiting for a car and like i wish taxis were easier to get i really wish i had turned that into an app in 2008 but i flip-flopped on that idea before i could ever think about that then i switched high schools four times because i'm a flip-flopper then i wanted to become a cop but i flip-flopped on that i also flip-flopped on every guild i was ever a part of and flipped my way up to a top 10 guild by flip-flopping so much in world of warcraft and then i sold my account for 1900 in 2008 because i flip-flopped only to flip-flop again and played later that year even though i was really good at other games as well like counter-strike splinter cell halo and runescape nowhere near as good as world of warcraft i never really got great at those games because i spent too much time flip-flopping between those four in 2008 i decided to become a youtuber so my first video in 2008 and this is wild but it's true my first video in 2008 was a video that is still on youtube it is called heroes of talara what we know video one it is a game review from 2008 uh but then of course i flip-flopped on youtube and didn't really ever make any more videos until like 2018 when it was popular to be a youtuber i also never wanted to be a real estate agent and i told myself i'd only become an agent to learn how to invest and then i became a real estate agent so i flip flopped on that i also flip-flopped on college by almost dropping out to be an agent full-time because it was going so well and the only reason i didn't flip-flop out of college was because i ended up flip-flopping into a different major which was quite frankly easier and allowed me to sell more real estate now ucla had a policy against flip-flopping majors for transfer students because they didn't want people to like get in under let's say like an art degree or something and then flip-flop into like a business degree or whatever uh but i bitched my way through the dean's office and well whatever offices i needed to get through until they actually wrote a new policy and let you down flip so as long as you were down flipping at college you were good i then got my lending license while selling real estate after becoming a real estate agent and real estate broker i got my lending license to do loans for people so they had money to fix up their homes before selling them but because there was so much risk involved with lending people my own money i flip-flopped on that because it was stupid risky i then got my contractor's license and offered clients to fix up their homes before we sold their homes and while that business cost me about one million dollars and i made a video on youtube called how i lost a million dollars on my business and also lost the 15 employees the sprinter brand the warehouse and a ton of equipment no i guess i wouldn't really say lost that part because i just kind of ended that part and sold what we could but anyway i flip-flopped on that business because it was a money-losing cancerous business i don't recommend construction for anyone uh unless you're a briefcase contractor and you can sub everything out then i got my drone license to do licensed drone photography but when i realized that wasn't profitable i flip-flopped on that i also did my own actual home photography but when i started making more money i flip-flopped on that business as well and started hiring other people to do it which uh yeah basically lots of flip-flopping but we're not done yet see recently uh during the pandemic i bought a house in santa barbara that i went to a court auction for but after one year of hell with the city i ended up selling the property for 150 000 profit just recently and i did nothing to it other than making it worse uh that's because i flip-flopped and didn't really want to deal with the city of santa barbara anymore then i made a youtube video saying i'd never sell it courses which i definitely flip-flopped on that i sell some amazing courses do as i say not as i do and buy those courses uh but anyway then i made a youtube video saying i would never sell specifically a stock course which i also then proceeded to flip-flop on then i'm pretty sure i said i'd never take a sponsorship in my life for a video that i would just be my own sponsor and only be sponsored by my courses and i flip-flopped on that which definitely reminds me to make sure to remind you to go check out the link to titan in the description down below i then bought like stocks like peloton at thirty to sixty dollars and then flip-flopped on them because i saw metrics failing uh fortunately i got out of peloton at like 113 dollars which is really good but i definitely lost money on a firm now uh i said not to buy new cars well i flip-flopped on that hardcore and i bought a lucid dream and i regret it i always say i regret every single card that i buy i bought a tesla model s plaid i regret it that was stupid but anyway do i say not as i do i'm a flip-flopper now i said i was going to buy a jet plane you might not know this yet i was going to buy a jet plane for 23.5 million dollars i don't want to talk about it okay different video but anyway i flip-flopped on that and lost 50 000 on the deposit and well now i'm selling all my because i'm a flip-flopping weenie baby paper hander but i think the bottom line of this is every time i flip-flop i believe that personally i'm making the right decision to increase profit and success in my life and so far being a flip-flopping weenie baby is working out quite well so if you want to subscribe to see where this flip-flopping journey takes us hopefully we can flip our way flip-flop our way to the top and uh well subscribe to enjoy more flip-flopping thanks so much goodbye
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