저자: Kevin · 외국인
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SpaceX S-1 분석: 1분기 잉여현금흐름 -90억달러(월 약 30억), 순손실 42억달러로 흑자 전환 전망 약함. 매출의 69%는 Starlink, AI(xAI) 매출 8.2억달러(17.4%)가 현금소진 주원인. 2027년 9월 만기 200억달러 브릿지론 대비 현금 부족으로 IPO 필요성 제기. 이중 의결권·중재 강제 등 거버넌스 리스크 지적. 엔비디아 대비 SpaceX 밸류에이션 상대 비교. 앤트로픽 흑자 전환 소식은 AI 생태계 긍정 요인으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes, I just got done from a sweaty session analyzing Nvidia earnings and the SpaceX S1 literally just dropped. Holy molly, we got to go right into the money, boys and girls, the money. Let's get right into this. I'm going to break everything down for you. What SpaceX is making, what they're not making, where they're making their money from, the dual class shares we've got going on here, the lawsuit waivers.
There's a lot in this. Let's just dive right in. So, let's get to the juiciest parts first. So, the first things that I like to look for, I generally go to the cash flow statement. So, I'm going to look at the cash flow statement and I'm going to find here that they have negative $9 of cash flow. That is up from about negative $3.3 billion of free cash flow from last year.
Just basically taking their net cash from operations and taking out how much they're spending on plant, property, and equipment, right? On the left side here, we got 2026, which indicates that this is just for 3 months. In other words, SpaceX right now burned $9 billion in free cash flow. Burned, so negative free cash flow of $9 billion.
That's $3 billion per month. January, $3 billion gone. In February, $3 billion gone. In March. Now, remember they did take over XAI in February, so it's unclear how many how much of that cash flow is going directly towards XAI related expenses, given that they're negative cash flow more than doubled over the last year.
There's probably a good chunk that is going to data centers and services you know, data centers and and server racks and chips and hardware. We also have quite a bit of stock-based compensation that has grown over the last last year here. You've almost tripled the stock-based compensation at the company despite the fact that they are losing a lot of money.
Last year, the company lost about half a billion dollars, which is an indication that they might actually be getting it to profitability. This year, they decided to ramp it up a little bit, and they're now losing 4.2 billion dollars. Now, in fairness, you don't necessarily want to dump on companies losing money.
You know, everybody dumped on Uber when they were losing money at first when they went public, and people are like, "Oh, are they ever going to go, you know, become a profitable company?" But, you have to be careful because at some point people want a return on their investment. People want to see the company can make money.
And if you look at a company like Rivian, which went public as a money-losing company, it just hasn't done very well. Uh it, you know, obviously is down from 179 to about $13. Another money-losing company, Roblox. Uh and they've been, you know, through this sort of full-on U shape, but they always sort of seem to rebound right back down into the toilet.
Another company that just still can't figure out how to make money. It's kind of surprising. So, there is some precedent for some companies losing money and uh freaking people out a little bit and the stock not doing very well. However, this has the Elon aura associated with it. But, let's go take a look at the segments to see where they're making money.
So, this company, which obviously it's named SpaceX, uh collects about 619 million dollars of its uh 4.7 billion dollars of revenue from space launch services. So, if we do the math on that, space launch services represent 13.1% of the business. So, 13.1% of the business is launch services. And then if you think um Starlink, Starlink actually represents a whole lot more.
This is going to be mobile connectivity, whether it's uh you know, on your home, on your RV, on your car, on your plane, whatever. This is coming out to 3.257 billion dollars. Pretty dang good revenue right here. Divided by 4694, that puts it at about classic 69% of their revenue is coming from Starlink.
Pretty impressive. Uh and then we do have xAI over here. Well, it's just listed as AI. Uh AI revenue sitting at 818 million. So, making up about 17.4% being the uh AI portion. Now, the AI portion is probably costing them most of that negative $9 billion in free cash flow. So, we want to be a little bit careful with how much of a drag that AI portion is going to have here.
Now, keep in mind they did make this deal with Cursor here. Uh and this was I'm not a bad deal given that, you know, Cursor is probably going to help Grok actually get on the map for coding. Uh you know, Karpathy did actually just get picked up by Anthropic, which I thought was actually brilliant. I actually tweeted on uh X and I just haven't been tweeting a lot lately, but I did post on X and I said uh it was a reply comment.
I'm like, "Wow, this just added multiples to the Anthropic IPO." And I actually believe that. I think if you pay Karpathy, you know, $50 million a year for the next 10 years. So, you pay the guy half a billion dollars over 10 years, they're probably adding 20 to 40 billion dollars of market cap to their IPO potential at Anthropic because they have Karpathy on board.
Like, he's just so well known in the AI community. People love this guy. And he used to work at Tesla. Something to think about. Kind of lost him on the AI team over at Tesla. Now, he's at Anthropic. The Cursor deal, as they write literally here, uh it the Cursor deal was designed to help improve Grok because it's falling behind Gemini and Anthropic, especially in coding for Anthropic.
It's also falling behind ChatGPT just in user metrics. A lot of people swear by it, you know, if you do, leave a comment down below. A lot of people swear by it. I haven't used it in a while, I will admit, so I'm not here to opine or give you my opinion on Grok. I'm just saying, you know, statistically they are falling behind.
And so, the Cursor deal was a a way to try to, you know, get Grok relevant again cuz they spent a lot of money. And I think they realized that in order to actually make money, they're better off just taking the Colossus AI and rather than fully improving Grock, licensing that to Anthropic, because they're making so much freaking money over at Anthropic.
Now, Anthropic, interestingly, also just came out with some massive news that uh they actually have an operating profit uh for this last quarter, which is frankly pretty freaking insane. Like very, very, very impressive. I think the Wall Street Journal just reported that uh and they're looking at just over half a billion dollars of profitability for the last quarter, which is huge.
Uh there it is. First profitable quarter. That should actually help boost the entire AI business. Look at this. So, Anthropic's revenue set to more than double to $10.9 billion in the second quarter. That puts them at an annualized rate of over $45 billion. Now, the company's worth like nearly a trillion dollars, but the fact that they have an operating profit that they can declare, absolutely mind-blowing.
Huge. I mean, this is going to be a killer IPO, especially if they could show profitability. Holy freaking smokes. Now, we'll see. Operating profit, obviously, is different than their bottom line, given interest costs uh and uh you know, other expenses that uh they could end up taking, but we'll see.
That's That's very impressive, though. Good for the whole AI ecosystem. Probably also good for SpaceX. We got a bridge loan of $20 billion that expires in September of 2027 for SpaceX. The $20 billion bridge loan, in my opinion, they kind of need to IPO to pay that off, because that's like exploding debt.
And they don't really have that money, because right now they have current debts of $17.2 billion and 23.6 of cash and marketable securities, which leaves them with just under $6 billion of free cash. And $20 billion of their long-term debt explodes next September. So, six doesn't cover 20, and you're losing money with XAI.
They need to raise money. You do have a little bit of related party debt here, $7.9 billion. It looks like it's related to a sale and leaseback agreement potentially having to do with XAI. Not sure yet. Uh we have a gross margin of 50.8%, which is up from 48.2 from last year, which is good. Pricing power growing a little bit here.
But keep in mind, this business in 3 months makes $4.7 billion. Nvidia farts that. Okay? In a year, SpaceX makes $18.8 billion. Nvidia makes nearly five times as much in 1/4 of the time. In one quarter, Nvidia makes is projected to make $92 billion in the second quarter here. $92 billion. That's almost 5x 18.8 that it SpaceX is expecting to make in a year.
So, just to compare, uh if you consider that on a valuation basis, if you're making five times as much money in 1/4 of the time, you're really making 20 times as much money. But Nvidia is probably only going to be worth about twice as much as SpaceX, which is pretty remarkable. So, if you jump in over here, you could actually see Nvidia has a market cap of $5.2 trillion.
I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX is somewhere around a $2 trillion market cap. That puts them at puts Nvidia at slightly more than twice as expensive as SpaceX, but they make 20 times as much money. Roughly, you know, I mean, annualizing out uh these um you know, how should I put it? I'm annualizing out uh these these quarterly data sets, right?
Anyway, very interesting to make that comparison. I'm not trying to shill for one company or another. In fact, even though it sounds like here I'm shilling for Nvidia, I have you know, way more exposure to SpaceX than I do Nvidia, so maybe I should be a lot nicer to SpaceX. But I you know, I have this thing where I never want to come across as like I'm trying to talk my book.
Like, I'd rather talk down my investments just to make sure like we have the highest integrity here where people know like I'd rather talk down my stuff. I'm not trying to pump my stuff. Uh I I just want to be transparent with what I'm seeing. So, uh SG&A is up 51%. Probably a lot of IPO-related fees.
They did lose $4.9 billion. R&D is 3.5. They're spending a lot of money here. Uh they've been doing restructuring over at XAI. Restructuring of nearly half a billion dollars in 2024, right here, nearly half a billion dollars. And again in 2025. So, they've been firing people like crazy. I think mostly because of the XAI merger and there've been a lot of layoffs, you know, 80 top developers has have left.
Some of I think like 12 of the top founders has have left. Talked about the segments. Let me see what else we have over here. We've got Uh there's going to be a dual class. There's going to be an A common stock and a B common stock. Uh the B stock will have 10 times the voting shares. Those are basically the ones that Elon's going to have access to.
Uh which is worth noting that he he doesn't want to make the same mistakes that he's made last time. He is going to have control of this company. Uh no question of that. On top of that, there's no sunset for this. Elon, you know, this is going to stay like this for a while. No independent compensation committee, so he could really pay himself what he wants.
They are waiving uh your right to a jury. They are waiving your right to a class action lawsuit. They are waiving your right to the legal system really beyond arbitration. So, they're forcing mediation and arbitration essentially. It'll be to be determined if that is actually legal in the Texas business courts because they're dual listing on Nasdaq Texas and Nasdaq New York.
The Terafab joint venture with Tesla is considered to be in the very early stages. 1/5 of their revenue comes from federal agencies. Uh let's see here. Uh SpaceX will have the power to control outcomes. Well, Elon Musk will have the power to control outcomes that matter to shareholders. Elon Musk has combined voting power of 85% Elon Musk owns 12.3% of class A shares and 93.6% of class B shares.
After IPO, Elon Musk will be the CEO, CTO, and chairman of the board. Elon Musk can elect, remove, or fill any vacancy amongst the board of directors. Tesla owns about 19 million shares as of May 1st. They have a cloud services agreement with Anthropic. Anthropic is expecting to pay 1.25 billion per month through May 2029 with capacity ramping at a a lower fee in May and June of 2026.
Wow. And if if Anthropic is profitable, that's great. That's going to help pay for some of those those opex uh numbers. But still, I mean, if we're negative cash flow 3 billion a month, I guess the, you know, spending by Anthropic of 1.25 helps put a little bit of a dent in it, but still. Uh all right.
Then, you know, they have investigations going on regarding the sexualization of images because of what we saw with with Grok, basically undressing women. And uh OpenAI eyes laying the groundwork for its AP IPO to go public over a trillion dollars in valuation is the talk now. So, we got major major IPOs coming.
And really, we want to pay attention to the canary in the coal mines, which are the early IPOs like a Cerebrus. And then, of course, uh you know, SpaceX will be very fascinating. Uh if you haven't yet joined our fundamental analysis, we do stuff like this every single day over at mekevin.com. Make sure to join our membership.
Use that coupon code for Memorial Day before it expires. The price will be going up. Uh keep in mind, you get short-term trade alerts like today. We opened on the market at 7:06. I said, "Hey, I think we're going to 7:14 today." In fairness, we only made it to 7:13, but that's a pretty damn good directional call.
And we had some canaries to watch there. We've got a momentum stock we're watching, so that's going to be a short-to-medium-term trade. We've got a long-term stocks that we're watching, 10-year plays. If you want that fundamental analysis, technical analysis, the lines, and analysis like what you've seen here, make sure to join us over at meetkevin.com.
Hopefully, you like this first look at the SpaceX IPO. I hope it was helpful for you, .
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