저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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빅테크의 AI 설비투자(capex)가 대규모로 이어지며 엔비디아가 과도한 초과이익을 내고 있다는 진단. 다만 현재 수요는 대기업의 선투자 중심이고 실제 수익화된 프로덕션 앱은 아직 적다고 지적. 엔비디아 매출은 향후 2~3년 성장 지속 가능하나 장기 가치는 애플리케이션 레이어로 이동할 수 있다는 시스코 사례를 들어 경계. 2025년 기술주 상승 여지(나스닥 25,000)와 AI capex 1조 달러 전망을 언급.
다듬은 글
I think what I would tell you is that the bigger principle and we've talked about this a lot Jason is that in capitalism when you over earn for enough of a time what happens is competitors decide to try to compete away your earnings in the absence of a monopoly the amount of time that you have tends to be small and it shrinks so in the case of a monopoly for example take Google you can over earn for decades and it takes a very very long time for somebody to try to displace you we're just starting to see the beginnings of that with things like perplexity and other services that are chipping away at the Google Monopoly but at some point in time all of these excess profits are competed away in the case of Nvidia what you're now starting to see is them over earn in a very massive way so the real question is who will step up to try to compete away those profits the old Bezos quote right your margin is my opportunity and I think we're starting to see and you've mentioned grock who had a super viral moment I think this week but you're starting to see the emergence of a more detailed understanding of what this Market actually means and as a result who will compete away the inference Market who will compete away the training market and the economics of that are just becoming known to now more and more people to make money right otherwise you're you're going to look really foolish for having spent 20 and 30 30 and4 billion so Nick if you just go back to the to the revenue slide of Nvidia I can try to give you a framing of this at least the way that I think about it so if if you look at this like what you're talking about is look who is going to spend $22.1 billion well you said it Jason it's all a big Tech why because they have that money on the balance sheet sitting idle but when you spend $22 billion their investors are going to demand a rate of return on that and so if you think about what a reasonable rate of return is call it 30 40 50% and then you factor in and that's profit and then you factor in all of the other things that need to support that that $22 billion of spend needs to generate probably $45 billion of Revenue and so Jason the question to your point and to Freed br's Point The $64,000 Question is who in this last quarter is going to make 45 billion on that 22 billion of spend and again what I would tell you to be really honest about this is that what you're seeing is more about big companies musling people around with their balance sheet and being able to go to Nvidia and say I will give you committed pre- purchases over the next three or four quarters and less about here is a product that I'm shipping that actually makes money which I need enormous more compute resources for it's not the ladder most of the apps the overwhelming majority of the apps that we're seeing in AI today are toy apps that are run as proofs of concept and demos and run in a sandbox it is not production code this is not we've rebuilt the entire autopilot system for the Boeing and it's now run with agents and Bots and all of this training that's not what's happening so it is a really important question today the demand is clear it's the big guys with huge gobs of money and by the way Nvidia is super smart to take it because they can now forecast demand for the next two or three quarters I think we still need to see the next big thing and if you look in the past what the past has showed you it's the big guys don't really invent the new things that make a ton of money it's the new guys who because they don't have a lot of money and they have to be a little bit more industrious come up with something really authentic and new yeah constraint makes for great art yeah we haven't seen that yet so I think the revenue scale will continue for like the next two or three years probably for NVIDIA but the real question is what is the terminal value and it's the same thing that Sach showed in that Cisco slide people ultimately realized that the value was going to go to other parts of the stack the application layer and as more and more money was acred at the application layer of the internet less and less Revenue multiple and credit was given to Cisco and that's nothing against Cisco because their revenue continued to compound right and they did an incredible job as the top provider of Graphics processing units for AI data centers Nvidia is at the Vanguard of a technological Revolution with demand for its products significantly exceeding the excitement around Nvidia is not limited to its recent achievements it also encompasses its much more bright future any investor would be captivated by CEO Jensen Han's bold forecast of a$1 trillion dollar investment in data center infrastructure for AI over the next four years but this could only be the beginning as nvidia's Blackwell gpus make their way into Tech behemoths like Microsoft the implications for financial growth are not only substantial but revolutionary video talked and we've talked in the show this is just the beginning I mean I think this is ultimately going to be another 2 threee bull marker for Tech because it's a fourth Industrial Revolution that's playing out in front of us and that's going to be Big T and the multiplier and I think this is it's only 10 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. yeah have you gotten any later in the party or are we still it's always kind of early isn't it I mean it's been a year now but we're still at 10 P oh we started at 9ine okay start at 9: now we're 10 p.m. and look we think tech stocks are up another 25% over the next year and I think NASDAQ 25,000 a year from now is something that we're going to start talking about going into the end of next year early 26 yeah so much of this there it is the last line there so much of this depending on the the numbers are staggering we talk about them all the time quarter to quarter but you think AI capex is going to exceed a trillion dollars why in 2025 I should say yeah why yeah it's everything we're seeing look that's that's why we travel the globe right trying to understand where the AI capex is and what's happening in the market I think streets underestimated AI cap backs potential by 30 to 40% and I think the biggest thing here is the multiplier for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip there's an 8 to 10 multiplier across the rest of tech that's why you have names like the Messi of AI pounder you have other use cases that are now starting to be in software sales force you know front and center and this is just the beginning it's get the popcorn out because the rest of tech now sees the benefit in 2023 Nvidia made history with its groundbreaking h100 GPU which dominated the AI data center chip Market and secured an astounding 98% market share however like any season performer who doesn't rest on their Laurels Nvidia has released its Blackwell architecture which offers a performance boost that makes a Quantum jump seem like a hop skip and jump imagine this the Blackwell based vb22 200 nvl 72 system processes AI inference at 30 times the speed of its predecessor the h100 system enhancement isn't just about speed it's also about cost Effectiveness for example a single gb200 GPU costs $83,000 which is double the price of a h100 i video fun their lead tech analyst Beth kend and Beth uh you know you you you put some great charts in your your report uh underscoring just the threat to specific computer chip names is this one of the reasons why the chip we're sharing them on the screen right now uh you've got lamb research You've Got U uh asml uh k k k is this one of the reasons you think that we've seen so much pressure in Sim and just over the last few weeks hi Charles that's a great question considering we have ai leaders such as Nvidia uh taking up all of the attention semiconductors topped back in June and July and we absolutely think some of this is due to tariffs to put it into perspective uh from 20124 to 2025 if these tariffs come into effect we're tracking a 25% decline in what's called wafer fabrication equipment this is the equipment that helps to build the chips um for sure you know these leaders such as Nvidia we think will be quite strong next year but can they carry uh the entire ETF we're finding that that Nvidia is not strong enough to carry all of that pressure right and we and to your point we've seen that we've seen where the semis in general have gotten hammered and and and inidia is going back to New highs also though I've read or heard this morning nvidia's hiring in China what what is it that they must do they know that this maybe this tariff thing could be short LED nvidia's story of China is quite interesting because they came under very strict export controls uh one to two years ago these AI chips that have been driving so much of the market were seen as a security threat therefore they've had to reduce the uh they've had to reduce the generation down uh make them a little less powerful in order to sell them to China uh however if you go back to what Jensen Wong has said about China there is only one China and what he's trying to say is when you have that kind of massive population at all of them you know middle class or above quite a few of them middle class or above it is quite hard to Microsoft is the tech giant Titan has become the biggest purchaser of these remarkable gpus and their grand vision goes beyond it appears that they won't be left alone among the tech Giants because in addition to improving their own AI capabilities they intend to provide other AI developers with s computational power through their Azure Cloud platform web services from Amazon to demonstrate the size Google's cloud and Oracle are competing with one another for a piece of nvidia's magic Morgan Stanley analysts forecast an intensification rather than merely a continuation of this progress as Invidia sent 13,000 Blackwell samples in its fiscal 2025 third quarter alone it is projected that Nvidia will ship an astounding 300,000 units in the final 3 months of 2024 and a staggering 800,000 in the first quarter of 2025 as Wall Street predicts that nvidia's fiscal 2026 sales would soar to unprecedented Heights of 195.40 million according to Morgan Stanley projections Eco hangs hopeful outlook for just four Tech Giants in 2025 alone Microsoft Amazon alphabet and meta are expected to invest an incredible $300 billion in AI infrastructure yesterday we were just talking about CPUs being replaced by gpus and now there qpu right uh I I I don't know about you but I think it may have saved Google potentially could save Google uh because I hardly use it as much as I Ed it for search and things like that do you think Willow is it too early to judge whether or not it can live up to the height this whole Quantum thing in your mind I do Quantum Computing is very very early it you can think of it as autonomous vehicles or what they call um high performance Computing which are the supercomputers that governments use these are really R&D departments that will take some time before Wall Street sees the profits That Wall Street likes to reward if I were to guess I think we are minimum 10 years out before we see a commercialized application for Quantum Computing all right before I let you go so in the last three weeks there's been an interesting theme in this market companies that report and can mention AI in a positive way get rewarded really nicely right we saw it last week uh in the last few weeks with names like salesforce.com I'm looking at Oracle and yeah posted a a chart there and I think they said everything right but the stock didn't react the same is it because the shares are already up or are the or or or is the market starting to really Define true AI winners from those true AI also Rands that's a great question Charles of course a company like Oracle will get into AI of course a company like Salesforce will get into AI but will we see those exponential moves like what we saw with Nvidia I would be cautious there I really continue to like the hardware layer the hardware is where a lot of these problems are being solved as we look into 2025 um I had said Blackwells revenue for NVIDIA will exceed 2023 and 2024 combined the complexity of that Hardware is going up four to eight times from what we just saw in 2024 uh that is really where you want to be concentrated and that's not quite where when all of these factors are taken into consideration Nvidia finds itself in a strong position with a path to Rising above $800 per share by 2025 its powerful combination of market dominance in AI enabled gpus significant pricing power and a growing demand curve make for an alluring investment story as more businesses prepare to align Capital into AI infrastructure nvidia's story not only stays untarnished but also ascends to new chapters of growth and opportunity the stock which once seemed expensive is now on the verge of being undervalued with the potential to soar by next year due in part to the Future prospects of their reuin architecture a sleeper story waiting to be revealed in an era of such Innovation and expansion one may wonder if investment is really necessary but the timing of it may be perfect lastly if you want to see what companies like Nvidia have been up to lately click on the next video on your screen and I'll see you there
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