저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
Yardeni는 시장이 조정 국면이며 10% 하락 가능성을 언급한다. 지속적 인플레이션과 연준의 신중한 금리 접근, 워싱턴 정치 변수, 관세와 환율 변동이 주요 리스크다. 장기채 금리 상승은 재정 책임 우려 및 끈적한 인플레이션 때문으로 본다. 베이비부머의 막대한 자산이 소비를 지지하고 있으나 연체율은 상승 중이다. 트럼프 행정부의 관세 정책은 협상 수단이며, 달러 강세가 관세 부담을 상쇄할 수 있다고 본다. 전반적으로 복잡하고 변수가 많다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Ed yord Dani addresses the current state of the markets stating they are in correction mode with the possibility of a 10% decline he emphasizes concerns over persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve cautious approach to interest rates as well as the impact of political developments in Washington and potential strikes on the economy your Denny also highlights the complexities of tariffs and currency fluctuations under the new Administration indicating that these economic factors require careful monitoring strees much more next year and now they're talking about two rather than four this is a long shoreman's strike potential in the middle uh middle of the U the month and then of course as's always my friends the Bond vigilantes they're getting a little Twitchy here they're not really happy with what's going on I think Trump for a while there bought themselves some time with the Doge boys or the the that were set to kind of make things uh saner in Washington and that's that's a big task as we're saying you you you you do point to some I guess quote bad reasons why yields are up is it mostly about DC and fiscal responsibility I I I think so and also so the the fact that inflation seems to be stick stickier and I think the fed's coming around to that conclusion they basically said that I I think they're now more even evenhanded here they were saying for a while all they really wanted to do was keep the unemployment rate from going up because inflation was sort of uh under control and now I think they're realizing well that's not quite quite true and they didn't really get to 2% and it's really not sticking at 2% it's sticking more like 2 and a half to 3% I I am curious about inflation and how the consumer feels about that we just got these consumer sentiment numbers quite strong many readings that we're getting on the consumer sort of tells us that they're spending even if maybe they're not thrilled about higher prices so how do you square that Circle well you never want to bet against American consumers when we're happy we spend money when we're depressed sometimes we spend more money uh but uh look there's a lot people of my Agee I'm still working for a living but my my my friends the Baby Boomers are retiring and many of them had two kids that were adults they don't have mortgages they don't have college payments and they're sitting at collectively on 76 trillion not billion 76 trillion dollars of nest eggs and they're starting to spend that I think the savings rate is going to go negative um and by the way they actually like to see interest rates High because a lot of them don't have everything in stocks they have it money market funds so you have to kind of put that we really can't in other words generalize about the consumer they're consumers that are not doing well where delinquency rates are going up but all in all the Baby Boomers are kind of keeping the economy growing what do you make about what's going to happen with currencies if indeed we do see some new tariff policy whether it's increasing what we already are seeing China introducing new new countries how does that all shake out when it comes to well this uh incoming Administration has obviously a different view than the previous one this the although the previous the previous administration didn't lift the tariffs that were in place no no exactly but I'm saying the pre previous ones attitude on on globalization was you know we all can work these things out together this incoming Administration is let's focus on America's interests uh and and let everybody else focus on their own interests and see if we can come up with negotiated deals so they're you know Trump's going to be using tariffs as a way to negotiate but I I think with regards to the currency we may have a situation where if Trump raises the Tariff by 10% across the board that the currency is already up 8% since it's recent low and so that could be an offset and that actually will force foreigners to pay for the Tariff if the dollar doesn't go up and they they raise tariffs then American consumers are going to pay it so it's a complicated story and nobody really knows the thing about the Trump 2.0 is it's a lot of moving parts and some of them I think on balance we a lot of people think it's going to work out all right but as we can see already you know the devil's in the detail the devil is in Washington
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