저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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시겔 교수는 트럼프 행정부가 친시장 정책을 펴 증시에 우호적이라고 봄. 다만 경기순환·지정학 등 통제 불가 변수로 조정은 가능하다고 언급. 관세는 시장이 '트럼프 풋'을 기대해 덜 우려하며, 강경 협상 전 단계로 해석. 관세·추방 정책과 물가 안정 목표 간 충돌 가능성을 지적. 물가 해결 열쇠로 생산성 향상(규제 완화)과 AI의 디스인플레이션 효과를 제시.
다듬은 글
all right want to get now a take from a market historian Wharton School Professor Jeremy seagull joins us now it's good to have you Professor Seagle so do you think that the Trump rally can continue oh yeah most most certainly I I was quite interested and he said I'm not going to guarantee a rally there could be dips uh we all know that can uh certainly happen you know Trump is the most Pro Stock Market president in history in so far as measuring his own success or worth by how well the stock market does however he there are many things that uh can happen that are Beyond his control that can give us a bare Market uh you know the business cycle is is part of a capitalist economy there could be external events there could be other geopolitical events no nothing is guaranteed what I think is guaranteed is that he won't knowingly do anything that he thinks will harm the value of the American market and U uh and I say knowingly because there's always that law of unintended consequences um you know many times we don't realize some things we do might not be in the best interest but it is really I mean it's exciting this morning is exciting to have a president that's Pro business pro economy I mean it's not just the stock market it's I want to make Americans better off I want to make you know Corporate America better off to make the American worker better off I mean there's a feeling a very good feeling Pro business pro excitement um that's certainly good for the stock market I wonder if if that's why the market isn't as concerned about tariffs because of this idea of a trump put that he's not he's not going to let the market Fall Apart or the economy even if as we know tariffs can have a disruptive effect on the economy and on inflation and the market doesn't like them yeah absolutely I mean you you could say there is somewhat of a trump put like we often talk about is there a fed put or or or a PO put neither of them again can ever guarantee uh against a bare Market but we I think what's happening is the market is also looking at his first four years uh and certainly I mean he did raise tariffs to be sure but not anywhere as as much as he threatened I mean I I'm I'm pretty amazed at this invitation uh to chairman shei of of China uh in the inauguration is just hey let's talk now so I do not have to put High tariffs on you uh it'll be really interesting to see if there's going to be any response there but I think it's hey let's talk and we know that the Trump position is I want to Tru from a strong position uh and then we can negotiate down from there and I think that's what the stock market feels yeah he did he he made an oblique reference to that with Jim certainly a spokesperson mentioned it on Fox this morning by the way no Chinese leader has ever attended a US inauguration and no foreign head of state has attended one in at least a century that would be amazing Jeremy um I wonder though what you make of some of the contradictory stances regarding as Sarah put it tariffs and deportations and then this notion that he can get groceries in his words affordable again to those two things is there a collision there yeah there there is and I I mean you know tariffs and uh the immigration issue um or Deport as as it will probably turn off are the biggest question marks certainly of the new Administration I mean JP in recent interviews you know he was asked should you react to the terror should you react to this he said we just do not know what is going to happen well if the chairman of the FED does not know I you know I don't think anyone else really really knows how this is going to work out um and uh it's really going to be a way to see I mean how can you bring the the I mean productivity is what really does bring prices down as well as responsible Federal Reserve action I mean those are the two ingredients we can get productivity up by less regulation which he wants that is disinflationary of course AI which he also mentioned is a potential for a very disinflationary force in the economy those two factors moving forward I think will do a lot to solve our inflation problem
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