Dan Ives: AI Revolution Still in Early Innings, Massive Upside Ahead

요약 보기

중국발 AI 우려(과도한 차입·지출)는 일시적 '화이트너클' 순간으로 일축. 모델 경쟁보다 데이터·데이터센터·인프라·물리적 AI에 막대한 지출이 몰리며 수익은 애플리케이션/인프라 계층에서 나온다고 주장. 현재 AI 혁명은 3회(제2회말 수준)이며 상승 여지가 크다고 봄. 알파벳은 격차를 빠르게 좁힐 것으로 평가. 구체 종목 가격 목표는 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. firm. Let's start with this for the sake of our audience. New position, what position are you holding? Yes. So, uh, again , partner, and really, uh, you know, from a research perspective, that would be my primary role at Yorkville Ives, but it's a modern merchant bank. I mean, that's something for me in over 25 years of working on Wall Street.

02. This is evolution. This is the next step. This is something that will really build something that I think will be special in this market, but really focused on the sectors of artificial intelligence, technology, infrastructure, energy, because I see the fourth industrial revolution , so I'm really excited to do this and find the best partners for it.

03. These companies borrow a lot of money. They spend a lot of money. The questions we are asking this morning, coming from events out of China, are they borrowing too much and spending too much. What is your reaction to what we heard from China? I think it's just a so-called white knuckle moment, no different than a mini deep search moment, to a certain extent.

04. The reality is that if you look at the models, over the next five to seven years you will have 10 times more models, vertical, geographic. The reality is that in the world of open AI, everything is anthropogenic, and everyone else pays rent for the models. Gemini is clearly reducing the gap. China , you will continue to see very good models emerge.

05. But I think when you talk about the broader spending and the trillions of dollars that you're going to see in AI, it's not so much about models as it is about data. Ultimately, it's about development . And I think that's something that will be borne out by the earnings for the quarter. But doesn't this show that China is not that far behind the United States?

06. They go hand in hand when it comes to the development of artificial intelligence. I think for the first time in 30 years, there's not even a question of whether the US is ahead of China in technology. In terms of models, in terms of commercialization, open source in the sense that they are striving for it, are they ahead of the curve?

07. As for robotics and energy, yes. But there is one chip in the world that is fueling the AI ​​revolution: the godfather of AI Jensen, Nvidia. And I think what you see from hyperscale companies, from open AI and Anthropic, is going to be an arms race. But I do n't even think there's a question about where the US stands relative to China.

08. When these moments happen, you will see excitement, knuckles turning white, stocks will rise. Why can China do it cheaper? Because ultimately, the open source model, if you look at it, whether it's Deepseek or any other, if you compare it to what Anthropic is doing , to what Open AI is doing, it's the top of the field.

09. In other words , Open AI and Anthropic are aiming for the corporate market . The models are just the beginning of what will be a broader, comprehensive framework. When you think about where the vast majority of AI spending will go, it's not necessarily about models. This is about data, building data centers, capitalization, what will eventually become physical AI.

10. I just keep looking at the commercialization of the models. I don't worry so much when things like this happen during the spending phase. Can we talk about the final stage? And I know that's really hard to do. Where do you think the money will ultimately be made ? The application layer is the infrastructure layer.

11. Where do you think the money will be made? I think the application infrastructure layer will really be the heart and lungs. Because if you think about all the data centers that have been built, those data centers would look like a car manufacturing plant. You're building a factory, but now you actually need lines.

12. What kind of work? When you look at more and more companies that are using different use cases, it's enterprises, it's software, it's use cases. Are you sure that the application layer won't become commercialized? I would tell you that more and more companies that I talk to are implementing artificial intelligence and going down that path.

13. I feel like it's becoming less and less risky. There will be winners and losers. There will be those who end up on the wrong side, and perhaps some of these actions reflect a certain nervousness. But today's view is that we are still in the third inning of the AI ​​revolution. Now we're starting, we're in the second inning.

14. This isn't the seventh, eighth inning because of where this is all going in terms of physical AI. Look at what Apple is doing . This is just the beginning of the consumer AI revolution, where they are essentially a toll booth on the AI highway. What's happening with Alphabet and Gemini? Why are they lagging behind?

15. I...I look at it in terms of everything they do. They will lag behind at some points. But the reality is that their comprehensive framework, from cloud to Gemini and what happened in search, they can catch up pretty quickly. And I just think they've closed the gap a lot more than anyone would have thought.

16. And it starts a year ago, New York City taxi drivers are bearish on Alphabet. Look where they are today. And maybe where are they? Where are they today? I say New York taxi drivers are still bearish. Maybe they're bearish at Microsoft, as opposed to, you know, I think you need to come up with a new phrase, because in my experience with New York City taxi drivers , they're better at this market than most of the people I talk to every day.

17. And that's a very good thing, because ultimately retail is becoming longer and stronger. They have a big seat at the negotiating table. And I know New York taxi drivers are now driving Bentleys because of this market, right? They will be sent, I remember years ago they said: I really like Tesla. I would say: what kind of multiplicity is this?

18. This is madness. And then Tesla just shows the moon up and to the right. And that's why many of them drive Bentleys today. Yes. Or on Cyber ​​Trucks. And many of them don't know where they're going anymore, which , um, is a separate problem. You know, the thing is, they're handing you the phone now, like I did recently, it's even worse.

19. The taxi driver took my phone and said, "Do you mind if I hold it here?" And I just thought he needed it for 5 minutes. I replied, " I need him back." "I'm getting calls." He's like: " I need it for the whole trip." And then there are moments when you say, “Why are you driving through the Holland Tunnel?

20. "You should take a look." And then you have to start to understand where they are going. This is a view, this is a problem. I know, Dan. Nice to see you. Perfectly. Thank you, sir. There is no dress code in Yorkville. We're going, we're going to dress more and more brightly at Yorkville Lives. Do they know about this?

21. They really know. And I think for some of them, it's all a process. Interesting. This is a fairly lengthy process. OK. Good luck, Dan. Thank you. It will see her.