저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
실적 시즌에서 여러 업종에 걸쳐 양호한 결과와 낮은 실적경고 수가 확인된다고 평가. 유가는 정제시설 피해로 제품 수요가 줄어 낮게 유지되며, 천연가스 중심의 셰일 혁명으로 미국은 에너지 불황을 겪지 않을 것이라 봄. AI는 아직 사용자 활용 초기 단계로 비기술 기업의 이익 개선 여지가 크고, 케빈 워시 Fed 인선도 긍정적으로 평가. 시장은 단기 5~10% 추가 상승 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon, Scott. I love talking to you on Fridays because we have the opportunity to, you know, hear from you about all the events of the week and then, you know, compare it to your market perspective and give us a great idea of where you think things are going. Last Friday you said, "I've never seen this much volatility across sectors, growth stocks, value stocks, sharp pullbacks, sharp reversals." I mean, we've had cases like this again.
Yes. We've had these cases again, but I feel more positive. I'll tell you what, you talked about profits. Uh, when the CEO of Delta came out and said, you know, "We're giving you the same profit this year as we did on January 1st, despite a 30-40% increase in fuel prices, which takes $2 billion out of our cash flow." I just sat back and said, "Wow." I mean, uh, these profits that are coming in, and they're not just hyperscalers, and they're not just technology.
I mean, we're getting good results. We are getting good results everywhere. The number of warnings, for example, is much lower. Usually, you know, a week or two lower. If someone is going to perform below the mark, he gives a warning. We had very few such warnings. It looks very good, and don't forget that we are reporting on the second quarter, when the oil price reached 110-120.
And by the way, I'm still amazed by the fact that despite the conflict, you know, the Strait of Hormuz is still virtually closed, you know, the price of oil is about 70 degrees. So, you know, we're just going through all these challenges in a way that all the averages are a little bit below that high, but if we go further, I...
we have another 5% to 10% growth spurt, I think that's going to happen in the next few weeks. I feel like we were reminded, if nothing else this week, that the geopolitical situation is far from over, right? You've had, you know, another flare-up of tension and words and everything else as we wait, you know, where exactly this supposed deal is going to happen , and the market's just not too keen on it .
And that's partly your point, I think, is that oil has behaved, perhaps surprisingly well, despite the lack of a final deal. Yes. Yes, the famous Memorandum of Understanding, I think it's a Memorandum of Understanding, but nevertheless, one of the reasons, perhaps, that oil prices have remained low is all this damage, and we, you know, Brian Sullivan talked about this last hour .
Damage to processing facilities. Listen, you know, we don't buy oil, we buy refined products. Especially Russia, which, as I heard, was 60-70% removed from the oil refinery. Now they import the product. Well, if you can't recycle it, you won't be demanding it. So, one of the reasons why, in my opinion, oil prices are falling is the lack of this refining capacity.
But nevertheless, you know, you know, the truth is that our country has never needed oil as little as it does now. I mean, the fracking revolution has made natural gas, which is, by the way, 5-10% cheaper than it was at the start of the Iran war, the most important source of energy in this country. And so, as a result, I mean, yeah, I know that gasoline is getting more expensive and diesel is getting more expensive and all that, but in terms of everything else that's going on, we're not going to suffer from an energy recession .
Who do you think has more to prove , Professor, this reporting season? The technology industry, as it is expected to grow by over 60 percent, or all these other areas of the market that are trying to raise capital to continue to show that this is a very capable market for expansion? Yes. Well, we, you know, of course, we all know that the expectations are very, very high, uh, in the sense that if you don't excel, you know, you're going to fall that day.
Now that you're moving away from technology, you don't have that you're winning, you're going, you're going to go up. And that is certainly one of the pleasures. And what we're also all waiting to see start to happen is when non-tech companies take all the benefits that they can get from the advancement of technology, from the artificial intelligence revolution, and turn that into increased profits and lower prices for the consumer.
I mean, it's yet to be used . The biggest use, I mean, hyperscalers , they're already in the middle stages of building the capacity we need, but the actual users of AI, I think, are only in the early stages. And this is what, you know, inspires me with optimism. And by the way, we didn't talk about the fact that Kevin Warsh's selection, I was impressed with the quality of people he brought into his task forces that are reported at the end of the year.
Very , very nice people. So, I mean, the Fed, I think, is going to be on the right track, and, you know, I see a lot of positives.
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