Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees Nvidia reaching $6tn valuation by 2027

요약 보기

엔비디아 GTC 이후 주가가 실적 상승 후 되밀리는 '디지션 기간'이며, AI 인프라 buildout은 3년차로 초입이다. 2025~2027 매출 합계(약 1.05조달러)는 보수적 가이던스이고 실제는 1.4~1.5조달러로 본다. 메모리 슈퍼사이클로 마이크론·SK하이닉스 등이 상승할 것이며, 소프트웨어 매도는 과도하게 디스커넥트됐다고 주장한다. 엔비디아 시총 2027년 6조달러 전망.

다듬은 글

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01. Before we get to that one trillion number, right? The price reaction used to be Nvidia beats and stock jumps. We're starting to get used to this right maybe the second or third time it's happened. Nvidia beats, it jumps and then it fades. What's going on here? Yeah, look I mean Mark, it's really a victim of their own success.

02. I think the bar continues to be set higher and higher. But the reality is this is just a digestion period. You know, I think as you look out to the coming years, you know, I think this is just a start. It's year three of an eight to 10 year build out. There's one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution and that's Nvidia.

03. I think we saw that front and center at GTC today. Is this not though as some people are saying you know, it used to be pricing and optimism. Now investors in the market they're they're they're they're demanding proof. Yeah, look I think to some extent look right now New York City cab driver is bearish on tech.

04. So I think that's part of it and you see with Microsoft the hyperscalers and others. I think for Nvidia yeah, it's a prove it, but ultimately I think there's still some concerns about competition when you think about Google, Open AI and others. But as we talked about when it comes to inference and the Grok deal, this is we're talking about a three to four trillion dollar market opportunity.

05. And I think that continues to be why you own Nvidia. I think this is a six trillion dollar market cap by 2027. Okay, Dan listen, I want to focus in on that one trillion dollar number that Jensen has been throwing around. When I think back and try and put it into context, you know, Amazon and Walmart, you know, it took Walmart decades to hit a trillion dollars.

06. It took Amazon probably an entire lifetime and then now Jensen is saying they're going to hit it in what two years or so. And the other thing is I did some simple math and you know, you live and breathe these numbers. I just wake up slamming espresso and then start catching up on my phone. So you're probably better off than I am.

07. You're being modest. Come on. 2025 216 billion in revenue, 364 billion for 2026 this year. Next year 2027 is 470 billion. So you add that up that that adds up to 1.05 trillion. I'm not niggling here because at these levels I mean every decimal point makes a difference. So it sounds as though is he guiding lower?

08. No, I think look he's just talking about the backlog that he sees in the 2027. But but my view is as we've seen the last few quarters, he continued to really sandbag to some extent 20 30% that's probably going to be higher than these numbers. So when you look at the trillion, that's probably closer to 1.4 1.5 trillion when it's all said and done.

09. And I think that continues to be the formula because they're seeing demand to put it in context 12 to one demand to supply right now for Nvidia chips. And of course SK Hynix surged to 7% in yesterday's session in the lead up to this GTC event. What we got, I think the big takeaway is obviously Nvidia continues to expand in this business.

10. They are a platform. They are set to ride sort of multiple waves of AI. I get that and that's been your mantra Dan. But I wonder if a memory layers will provide better investment opportunities than Nvidia's of the world just because of the competition story is there and of course there are some question marks over what Google is doing, what some of the other hyperscalers are trying to achieve here to bring down the cost and bring up their sort of vertical integration story.

11. Look, you hit the nail on the head. I think that's really why this is sort of been on a treadmill in terms of Nvidia stock. Look, when you look at memory, we're in a memory supercycle. From Micron to SK, you know, and obviously what we see, you know, really across the board in terms on the memory side, you know, Sandisk among others.

12. Look, those stocks are going to continue to go higher. But my whole point is that when you look at what's happening with Nvidia, there's only one godfather of AI. And even if you look at what's happening on the demand side, when you look at Reuben and and you go down the the path, they're going to continue to have demand to supply 10 to one, 12 to one probably for the foreseeable future.

13. But that's also going to be a benefit to Google. But it speaks to our view. You have to own the second, third, fourth derivatives. Like you talked about memory, you talked about chips. And I continue to think the software sell-off is the most disconnected sell-off that we've seen since covering stocks in the late '90s.

14. How are you thinking about the whole software angle? And of course we've had a lot of opportunities on CNBC to hear from you and get your views. And then the latest that we got just overnight was Nvidia software is aiming to bring Open QA to the enterprise. What does that say to the whole software space?

15. Is that a negative to Microsoft's of the world? Look, I view it ultimately as a positive because it just speaks to like what Jensen is saying is that the use cases are going to be in software. That's where everyone's going after. There's a better chance of me being the Olympics in 2028 than Anthropic unseating a Salesforce, a ServiceNow, a CrowdStrike, a Palo Alto.

16. I think right now that's why it's an AI goose trade. But it continues I think software you've seen the bottoming and I think it's very important because as these use cases play out second half of the year, software will be the hearts and lungs of this AI revolution along with memory, along with chips.

17. But it speaks to our view. This is still a bull cycle for tech despite obviously this white-knuckle period that we're going through.